2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1407067489545068545

Wow, the ensembles are showing that new wave developing potentially as early as 4-5 days out. Maybe a lemon in a few days if other models jump on board?

[Ivanhater]

As has been discussed previously, the storm the GFS is developing in the Gulf is from the wave the NHC is highlighting.

Please post model runs for that specific storm in that thread to reduce confusion. I have moved some posts over. Thank you.

[chaser1]

Michael, I just read Aspen's post and am pretty sure he is not referencing the disturbance approaching the Windwards (which GFS develops and moves into the E. GOM). To be sure and for perspective, I clicked on the Twitter link and saw the ensemble tracks for a new potent wave still over Africa at this time. It is that wave that he was referring to.

[BobHarlem]

i'm not so sure the tagged wave is the same thing the GFS is developing, 0z shows it moving that wave more north, and then the GFS comes more from another area to the west. Either way, the Euro/CMC/Icon do not develop it in the west Caribbean really at all, and seem to concentrate more in the East Pacific. 7 days out and nothing on the Euro has me skeptical.

[Shell Mound]

i'm not so sure the tagged wave is the same thing the GFS is developing, 0z shows it moving that wave more north, and then the GFS comes more from another area to the west. Either way, the Euro/CMC/Icon do not develop it in the west Caribbean really at all, and seem to concentrate more in the East Pacific. 7 days out and nothing on the Euro has me skeptical.

Last year the GFS often did better with genesis than the ECMWF, but this year the ECMWF seems to be performing better than the GFS in this regard.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1407067489545068545

Wow, the ensembles are showing that new wave developing potentially as early as 4-5 days out. Maybe a lemon in a few days if other models jump on board?

The latest (00Z) EPS ensembles are even more bullish within the next three to five days. Additionally, the 00Z GEFS suite is in decent agreement with the EPS:


 https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1407081171071164416

[Kingarabian]

For the next 5-7 days the ensembles are bullish in closing off a low and maybe intensifying into a TD/weak TS but nothing more. In about 10 days though, 3-5 members have classic Caribbean cruisers and showing hurricane strength. Will be interesting to see if this wave can maintain itself until it reaches the WCaribbean.

[Blown Away]

For the next 5-7 days the ensembles are bullish in closing off a low and maybe intensifying into a TD/weak TS but nothing more. In about 10 days though, 3-5 members have classic Caribbean cruisers and showing hurricane strength. Will be interesting to see if this wave can maintain itself until it reaches the WCaribbean.

I suspect the TS that has been shown in a few GFS runs in the W Caribbean out 7+ days may come from this predicted low...

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1407067489545068545

Wow, the ensembles are showing that new wave developing potentially as early as 4-5 days out. Maybe a lemon in a few days if other models jump on board?

The latest (00Z) EPS ensembles are even more bullish within the next three to five days. Additionally, the 00Z GEFS suite is in decent agreement with the EPS:
https://i.postimg.cc/L8ngtK9t/Ska-rmavbild-2021-06-22-kl-11-22-59.png
https://i.postimg.cc/7L1H7m21/Ska-rmavbild-2021-06-22-kl-11-24-17.png
https://twitter.com/Souza101Matt/status/1407081171071164416

Haha GFS dropped it right as EPS increased. I'll be interested to see if something develops briefly.

[SFLcane]

My gut says no. Stability and dry air win this battle. But I could be wrong

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I figured the GFS system in the western Caribbean/GOMEX was just a ghost when the CMC didn't even show it.

[aspen]

The 12z Euro shows a TD in the Gulf hitting Texas at the end of the run. I think it might be from moisture from the EPac and not from the currently marked wave.

[captainbarbossa19]

The 12z Euro shows a TD in the Gulf hitting Texas at the end of the run. I think it might be from moisture from the EPac and not from the currently marked wave.

(Sarcastically) Yay. Just what we need. More rain.

[aspen]

The WCar/Gulf system is slowly returning over the last few GFS runs. Meanwhile, the 18z run shows a strong wave/very weak TC that appears to be the same potential system seen on the ensemble runs.

[aspen]

The Euro and ICON are both showing the tropical wave set to emerge off of Africa this week developing into a very weak TC in both 00z runs, as well as the 06z ICON. The GFS also seems to have minor development and even has the wave make it into the Caribbean in the 00z run.

The 00z CMC does show this wave, but instead of developing it, the model generates a TC in the Gulf as early as next Tuesday from some vorticity crossing into the BoC from the EPac. The system sticks in the Gulf for a while and makes landfall in Louisiana by the end of the run.

[Shell Mound]

For the next 5-7 days the ensembles are bullish in closing off a low and maybe intensifying into a TD/weak TS but nothing more. In about 10 days though, 3-5 members have classic Caribbean cruisers and showing hurricane strength. Will be interesting to see if this wave can maintain itself until it reaches the WCaribbean.

The 00Z EPS is the most bullish suite yet, showing a possible TS in just two days, close to West Africa. No TS has formed in the MDR east of 40°W prior to July.

[SFLcane]

For the next 5-7 days the ensembles are bullish in closing off a low and maybe intensifying into a TD/weak TS but nothing more. In about 10 days though, 3-5 members have classic Caribbean cruisers and showing hurricane strength. Will be interesting to see if this wave can maintain itself until it reaches the WCaribbean.

The 00Z EPS is the most bullish suite yet, showing a possible TS in just two days, close to West Africa. No TS has formed in the MDR east of 40°W prior to July.

It has a few short lived TCs.

[Shell Mound]

For the next 5-7 days the ensembles are bullish in closing off a low and maybe intensifying into a TD/weak TS but nothing more. In about 10 days though, 3-5 members have classic Caribbean cruisers and showing hurricane strength. Will be interesting to see if this wave can maintain itself until it reaches the WCaribbean.

The 00Z EPS is the most bullish suite yet, showing a possible TS in just two days, close to West Africa. No TS has formed in the MDR east of 40°W prior to July.

It has a few short lived TCs.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1407654034446635011



 https://twitter.com/PlanetaryWxGuy/status/1407654561645436928



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1407655496291606535

[Monsoonjr99]

I've noticed the past several runs of the GFS tracking some vorticity across the Gulf north of the Yucatan towards Texas over the next few days. It seems to originate over S Florida early tomorrow from I suppose the current decaying front and storminess there. The latest Euro also shows some reflection so the GFS might not be total bogus with this.

I don't expect it to be very likely to form, but it might be something worth watching over the next several days.

[SFLcane]

Euro has a tropical storm traversing the Mdr. “ IF” it came to pass I would be a bit worried of what’s to come in August.