2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Yellow Evan]

Door for El Nino or probably even warm neutral is completely shut. You can thank MJO sticking in the IO for 6 weeks for this. Also contrary to whatever Klotzbach’s (modified) AMO index suggests, the actual SST configuration does not resemble a -AMO and rather an EOF2 +AMO.

[crownweather]

I was going back and forth with Phil Klotzbach last evening. With all March data in, the AMO has turned strongly negative (-1.8C). Phil was saying something about Kelvin wave warming the Nino 3.4 area this month, and strong signs that the Pacific SSTs may be a lot warmer than the models are predicting. That may lead to warm-neutral or even El Nino by peak season. We discussed what this would do for the storm numbers and he said he is going to be significantly lowering his prediction. I won't go into details, but named storms will be below the 30-yr average of 14/7/3. Possibly less than 10 named storms. I'll be at the National Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre with him next week.

That would be great. We could all use a quiet season.

http://wxman57.com/images/MarchAMO.png

Since today is "You can't believe anything you read on the Internet day" or otherwise known as April Fools' Day, I think we may be being pranked.

[Shell Mound]

I was going back and forth with Phil Klotzbach last evening. With all March data in, the AMO has turned strongly negative (-1.8C). Phil was saying something about Kelvin wave warming the Nino 3.4 area this month, and strong signs that the Pacific SSTs may be a lot warmer than the models are predicting. That may lead to warm-neutral or even El Nino by peak season. We discussed what this would do for the storm numbers and he said he is going to be significantly lowering his prediction. I won't go into details, but named storms will be below the 30-yr average of 14/7/3. Possibly less than 10 named storms. I'll be at the National Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre with him next week.

That would be great. We could all use a quiet season.

http://wxman57.com/images/MarchAMO.png

Have to admit, that's pretty interesting. ...

His post is likely in April Fool’s jest, given that his March forecast calls for an active season. Also, several of the past Marches featured similar AMO values.

[NotSparta]

I was going back and forth with Phil Klotzbach last evening. With all March data in, the AMO has turned strongly negative (-1.8C). Phil was saying something about Kelvin wave warming the Nino 3.4 area this month, and strong signs that the Pacific SSTs may be a lot warmer than the models are predicting. That may lead to warm-neutral or even El Nino by peak season. We discussed what this would do for the storm numbers and he said he is going to be significantly lowering his prediction. I won't go into details, but named storms will be below the 30-yr average of 14/7/3. Possibly less than 10 named storms. I'll be at the National Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre with him next week.

That would be great. We could all use a quiet season.

http://wxman57.com/images/MarchAMO.png

Had to double check the calendar for this one

[SFLcane]

Nice one wxman57...

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I was going back and forth with Phil Klotzbach last evening. With all March data in, the AMO has turned strongly negative (-1.8C). Phil was saying something about Kelvin wave warming the Nino 3.4 area this month, and strong signs that the Pacific SSTs may be a lot warmer than the models are predicting. That may lead to warm-neutral or even El Nino by peak season. We discussed what this would do for the storm numbers and he said he is going to be significantly lowering his prediction. I won't go into details, but named storms will be below the 30-yr average of 14/7/3. Possibly less than 10 named storms. I'll be at the National Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre with him next week.

That would be great. We could all use a quiet season.

http://wxman57.com/images/MarchAMO.png

[Category5Kaiju]

Oohhhh…I fell for it

[hurricane2025]

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1509911966474723328

[SFLcane]

Boom!!

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1509911966474723328

[cycloneye]

Is not a joke. This for JAS.

[Shell Mound]

Is not a joke. This for JAS.

https://i.imgur.com/StOU7lR.jpg

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1509920178414436358



 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1509746829382103064



 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1509746835388346371

[SFLcane]

Is not a joke. This for JAS.

https://i.imgur.com/StOU7lR.jpg

Hmmm.. That can't be correct. I see globally positve anoms all over.

[galaxy401]

I was going back and forth with Phil Klotzbach last evening. With all March data in, the AMO has turned strongly negative (-1.8C). Phil was saying something about Kelvin wave warming the Nino 3.4 area this month, and strong signs that the Pacific SSTs may be a lot warmer than the models are predicting. That may lead to warm-neutral or even El Nino by peak season. We discussed what this would do for the storm numbers and he said he is going to be significantly lowering his prediction. I won't go into details, but named storms will be below the 30-yr average of 14/7/3. Possibly less than 10 named storms. I'll be at the National Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre with him next week.

That would be great. We could all use a quiet season.

http://wxman57.com/images/MarchAMO.png

That post looked very legit honestly until the last couple sentences. Maybe it is true after all.

[zzh]

Favors warming in the East MDR.

[Shell Mound]

I was going back and forth with Phil Klotzbach last evening. With all March data in, the AMO has turned strongly negative (-1.8C). Phil was saying something about Kelvin wave warming the Nino 3.4 area this month, and strong signs that the Pacific SSTs may be a lot warmer than the models are predicting. That may lead to warm-neutral or even El Nino by peak season. We discussed what this would do for the storm numbers and he said he is going to be significantly lowering his prediction. I won't go into details, but named storms will be below the 30-yr average of 14/7/3. Possibly less than 10 named storms. I'll be at the National Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre with him next week.

That would be great. We could all use a quiet season.

http://wxman57.com/images/MarchAMO.png

Since today is "You can't believe anything you read on the Internet day" or otherwise known as April Fools' Day, I think we may be being pranked.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1504895691327344641



 https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1504175462163140610



 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1508908216138219528




Note that a -IOD would tend to align with cool neutral ENSO or La Niña during meteorological fall and/or winter of 2022.

[AlphaToOmega]

I am still waiting for the next monthly ECMWF. The ECMWF has the ENSO as mostly a tossup for this hurricane season, which is not in line with other models. The CFSv2 says there is a 100% chance of -ENSO for ASO, and the JMA says there is >80% chance of -ENSO for ASO. I still have 2006 and 2012 as potential analogs because I still think there is a chance—not a very likely chance—but a chance—that 2022 could feature a +ENSO for ASO. I think we will know in the next couple of days if the door to a +ENSO (thus the door to a below-average season) is shut.

[Category5Kaiju]

While I am not personally sure if it means anything, the Australian and South Pacific basins have seemingly been extremely quiet this season (if I am not mistaken, Vernon was the only major strength storm to occur in either basin so far, albeit a Cat 3). Maybe this La Nina or something about the ENSO state is causing this to occur? Like I said, I have no idea if this means anything for the Atlantic, but it is indeed an interesting observation.

[AlphaToOmega]

There is a chance 2022-2023 might be a +ENSO winter. A triple dip La Nina is not a sure thing.

[Category5Kaiju]

There is a chance 2022-2023 might be a +ENSO winter. A triple dip La Nina is not a sure thing.

https://i.postimg.cc/XYCbh1Rs/cfs-mon-01-ssta-global-9.png

Except if I recall correctly, that used to be glaringly +ENSO earlier this year (meaning the trend has been cooler over the past months or so)

[AlphaToOmega]

There is a chance 2022-2023 might be a +ENSO winter. A triple dip La Nina is not a sure thing.

https://i.postimg.cc/XYCbh1Rs/cfs-mon-01-ssta-global-9.png

Except if I recall correctly, that used to be glaringly +ENSO earlier this year (meaning the trend has been cooler over the past months or so)

There seems to be a trend towards a warmer ENSO for this winter:





I wonder what could be causing this.