Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (Is Invest 98L)

[gatorcane]

850mb vorticity on the increase near Puerto Rico now:

[Blown Away]

850mb vorticity on the increase near Puerto Rico now:

https://i.postimg.cc/FsWzZ2H5/wg8vor.gif

50/80% and no Invest tag, IMO still much uncertainty if and where a LLC will form. The vorticity map finally showing hints.

[ChrisH-UK]

A radar loop form Puerto Rico the motions of the radar it looks like the center might of passed over Puerto Rico.

[MarioProtVI]

The models are making me think this is gonna be a weird mashup of Kate 1985 and 2015 (both November hurricanes) but with more 1985-ness to it, especially if it emerges into the Gulf and hooks back just like 1985 did.

[Blown Away]

The models are making me think this is gonna be a weird mashup of Kate 1985 and 2015 (both November hurricanes) but with more 1985-ness to it, especially if it emerges into the Gulf and hooks back just like 1985 did.

Agree, we should expect the unexpected and November usually delivers when given the chance.

[NDG]

18z Euro trending stronger.

[cane5]

The models are making me think this is gonna be a weird mashup of Kate 1985 and 2015 (both November hurricanes) but with more 1985-ness to it, especially if it emerges into the Gulf and hooks back just like 1985 did.

Or hooks back like WILMA
Wilma was a mid Oct storm very odd.

[Blown Away]

18z Euro trending stronger.

https://i.imgur.com/rYrmF9t.png

About same position as 18z GFS when it turned NNW.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's understandable to see many folks here trying to make comparisons with this future system and past historical systems, but something tells me that this system that we're about to see is about to occur in some rather unseasonally favorable conditions that would probably cause it to behave like no other storm we've seen before, at least in November. Who knows if this future system becomes some kind of "November boogeyman" that trackers in future seasons are going to reference?

It's just a hot take, I know.

[NDG]

18z Euro trending stronger.

https://i.imgur.com/rYrmF9t.png

About same position as 18z GFS when it turned NNW.

Is actually further SW than what the 18z GFS has it for the same time.

[tolakram]

Gets pretty far north before coming back

[tolakram]

18Z Euro

[gatorcane]

18z Euro trending stronger.

https://i.imgur.com/rYrmF9t.png

About same position as 18z GFS when it turned NNW.

Looks like it would head west into South Florida with that ridge if the run went out farther:

[cane5]

18z Euro trending stronger.

https://i.imgur.com/rYrmF9t.png

About same position as 18z GFS when it turned NNW.

Looks like it would head west into South Florida with that ridge if the run went out farther:

https://i.postimg.cc/wBSq1mQ7/ecmwf-z500-mslp-watl-fh0-90.gif

Do we have a timeframe ? okay

[Blown Away]

About same position as 18z GFS when it turned NNW.

Looks like it would head west into South Florida with that ridge if the run went out farther:

https://i.postimg.cc/wBSq1mQ7/ecmwf-z500-mslp-watl-fh0-90.gif

Do we have a timeframe ? okay

18z Euro ends at 90 hrs… Based on current model info a FL impact would be in the 4-5 range…

[gatorcane]

Pretty clear on the WV loop, the developing storm is going to pivot counter-clockwise around that ULL to the WNW centered over the SE Bahamas, so will move NNE for now then N then eventually NW and then W or WSW.

[blp]

Here is another view of the 18z Euro

[Blown Away]

Hints of a very broad rotation in the area of DR/PR…

[zzzh]

Dry air seems like the biggest inhibitor.

[IsabelaWeather]

Did someone already post this before?

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1588980442027692032?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Yeah, pressure at my house is currently 1008.4mb which is lower than I ever see w/o a storm around. I was hoping that mid level swirl would go up the mona passage and throw up some storms here, but it we just east of me and dragged all of the rain out quickly. Super interesting right now that its drizzling.

EDIT: Also noteworthy that after the vort passed by the winds picked up very dramatically. having gusts in the low 30s right now, though its on the decrease now