2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[SFLcane]

Anyone tells you they know what’s happening this season is straight up lying in my opinion. We shall see

[Category5Kaiju]

Anyone tells you they know what’s happening this season is straight up lying in my opinion. We shall see

This is the first Atlantic season I've tracked since 2017 where I genuinely have very little clue as to how it will pan out due to how many conflicting signals there are. 2018 and 2019 I felt pretty bearish (was kind of wrong about both), 2020 was very bullish, 2021 was pretty bullish, and 2022 was pretty bullish (although I kind of got that one wrong too )

But one thing I do have some decent confidence in: I wouldn't be surprised if this season manages to do very strange things and defy expectations in certain parameters.

[cycloneye]

Interesting the number of storms for years that had both El NIño ansd warm MDR ssts.

 https://twitter.com/catinsight/status/1645406904158388224

[Iceresistance]

I can't find a good spot to post this
 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1653038207791923200

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AdrianLinares28/status/1653053090415747072

[cycloneye]

Phil chims in. However.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1653072642914791425

[SFLcane]

Phil chims in. However.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1653072642914791425

However..................

[Kingarabian]

Phil chims in. However.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1653072642914791425

The opposite is also true. Hard to guess what's going to happen.

[AlanSnyder35]

When you still use the word however this deep you know things are still up in the air

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Phil chims in. However.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1653072642914791425

Still think the Niño will ultimately win out in the end but there is a decent chance that the basin could still put up respectable numbers (or at least more respectable than what we typically see during these events). I've said this before but the eastern and central MDR have the potential to be relatively hospitable if TWs can get going early on (especially if aided by well-timed CCKW/MJO passage). 55W and beyond should be where storms will start encountering problems with shear the further W they track, and the Caribbean should be off-limits as is typical with El Niños, but I guess that goes without saying.

[tiger_deF]

Phil chims in. However.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1653072642914791425

Still think the Niño will ultimately win out in the end but there is a decent chance that the basin could still put up respectable numbers (or at least more respectable than what we typically see during these events). I've said this before but the eastern and central MDR have the potential to be relatively hospitable if TWs can get going early on (especially if aided by well-timed CCKW/MJO passage). 55W and beyond should be where storms will start encountering problems with shear the further W they track, and the Caribbean should be off-limits as is typical with El Niños, but I guess that goes without saying.

I agree. Prior recent active seasons we saw most waves struggle across the open Atlantic, with some rapidly intensifying under extremely favorable conditions near land. This season I suspect we will be tracking developed, consolidated systems crossing the MDR and putting up respectable ACE. Most will likely get sheared to death in the Carrib and WATL, but some may travel North enough or find favorable enough pockets of atmospheric conditions to become threats to land. I'd say the EC will be more at risk this season compared to the Gulf-focused landfalls we've had recently.

[weeniepatrol]

Phil chims in. However.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1653072642914791425

Still think the Niño will ultimately win out in the end but there is a decent chance that the basin could still put up respectable numbers (or at least more respectable than what we typically see during these events). I've said this before but the eastern and central MDR have the potential to be relatively hospitable if TWs can get going early on (especially if aided by well-timed CCKW/MJO passage). 55W and beyond should be where storms will start encountering problems with shear the further W they track, and the Caribbean should be off-limits as is typical with El Niños, but I guess that goes without saying.

Agree completely, if this nino were going super we could probably expect a standing wave over the Epac that just nukes the Atlantic but with a lesser amplitude and this prolific Atlantic warmth, intraseasonal forcing should be able to make its way through providing windows of development. 3-4 majors is definitely possible. NOAA forecast should be soon.

[cycloneye]

Webbs analogs.1877, 1896, 1899, 1965, 1969.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1653151706082074624

[Category5Kaiju]

Webbs analogs.1877, 1896, 1899, 1965, 1969.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1653151706082074624

San Ciriaco Hurricane, Betsy, and Camille ring any bells???

Yeah, those analog years confirm my suspicion that the Bahamas, Eastern Florida, and the SE US Seaboard may really need to keep an eye out

[cycloneye]

Webbs analogs.1877, 1896, 1899, 1965, 1969.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1653151706082074624

San Ciriaco Hurricane, Betsy, and Camille ring any bells???

Yeah, those analog years confirm my suspicion that the Bahamas, Eastern Florida, and the SE US Seaboard may really need to keep an eye out

Exactly.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1653157467604541441

[AnnularCane]

All of a sudden I have this funny feeling that at the end of the season everybody will be saying "if the season was like this with an El Nino, just imagine how bad it would have been WITHOUT it!"

[Category5Kaiju]

All of a sudden I have this funny feeling that at the end of the season everybody will be saying "if the season was like this with an El Nino, just imagine how bad it would have been WITHOUT it!"

It's inevitable. You know very well. It cannot be stopped

[SFLcane]

Those analogs spell trouble for Florida potentially with the SW Atlantic being a hotspot.

[zzzh]

EPS trending weaker on the El Nino standing wave, stronger on the Africa standing wave. With MJO moving into phase 8/1 later this month, we might see the first storm of the season soon.

[Blown Away]

Webbs analogs.1877, 1896, 1899, 1965, 1969.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1653151706082074624

5 analog years. Busy W Atlantic basin...