2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

Crayons by tomorrow am.

[LarryWx]

My thoughts exactly.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1668992651335548930?s=46

Fun is just starting. If these conditions come to pass with a TUTT placement similar to 2004 with the right steering look out.

https://i.postimg.cc/htk95jkh/cfs33.png

If development were to occur in the mdr this month, it could be a sign pointing towards a more active season down the line. Early mdr development in June through early July is unusual and correlates quite well with active seasons. Development of this wave could help further back up the case that we're looking at a more active season than usually expected with a robust El Nino.

With the 12Z Euro showing a TD in the MDR as early as on 6/21, that chance is increasing. That could very well be as you suggest an early indicator of an active season, especially compared to other robust Niño events.

However, to consider another possibility based on just last year, late June had two very impressive AEWs that had significant impact in the Caribbean. The 2nd one moved off Africa on June 23rd and lead to PTC advisories starting on 6/27 as it got to 51W. This later became Bonnie. Similar discussions were suggesting a very active MDR.

But after Bonnie, there wasn't even one impressive AEW for nearly two months until the one that formed into Earl moved off Africa on August 25th and became Earl near the LAs on 9/2-3. Everything that came off Africa was dry as a bone for two months and many folks were very surprised.

[SFLcane]

Fun is just starting. If these conditions come to pass with a TUTT placement similar to 2004 with the right steering look out.

https://i.postimg.cc/htk95jkh/cfs33.png

If development were to occur in the mdr this month, it could be a sign pointing towards a more active season down the line. Early mdr development in June through early July is unusual and correlates quite well with active seasons. Development of this wave could help further back up the case that we're looking at a more active season than usually expected with a robust El Nino.

With the 12Z Euro showing a TD in the MDR as early as on 6/21, that chance is increasing. That could very well be as you suggest an early indicator of an active season, especially compared to other robust Niño events.

However, to consider another possibility based on just last year, June had two very impressive AEWs that had significant impact in the Caribbean. The 2nd one moved off Africa on June 23rd and lead to PTC advisories starting on 6/27 as it got to 51W. This later became Bonnie. Similar discussions were suggesting a very active MDR.

But after Bonnie, there wasn't even one impressive AEW for nearly two months until the one that formed into Earl moved off Africa on August 25th and became Earl near the LAs on 9/2-3. Everything that came off Africa was dry as a bone for two months and many folks were very surprised.

I would venture at 216 that is a weak TS near the islands on the euro. Impressive for june

[LarryWx]

If development were to occur in the mdr this month, it could be a sign pointing towards a more active season down the line. Early mdr development in June through early July is unusual and correlates quite well with active seasons. Development of this wave could help further back up the case that we're looking at a more active season than usually expected with a robust El Nino.

With the 12Z Euro showing a TD in the MDR as early as on 6/21, that chance is increasing. That could very well be as you suggest an early indicator of an active season, especially compared to other robust Niño events.

However, to consider another possibility based on just last year, June had two very impressive AEWs that had significant impact in the Caribbean. The 2nd one moved off Africa on June 23rd and lead to PTC advisories starting on 6/27 as it got to 51W. This later became Bonnie. Similar discussions were suggesting a very active MDR.

But after Bonnie, there wasn't even one impressive AEW for nearly two months until the one that formed into Earl moved off Africa on August 25th and became Earl near the LAs on 9/2-3. Everything that came off Africa was dry as a bone for two months and many folks were very surprised.

I would venture at 216 that is a weak TS near the islands on the euro. Impressive for june

Absolutely would be impressive for June to have an MDR TC.

I'm surprised Luis hasn't posted in several days. I hope he's ok.

[Hurricane2022]

With the 12Z Euro showing a TD in the MDR as early as on 6/21, that chance is increasing. That could very well be as you suggest an early indicator of an active season, especially compared to other robust Niño events.

However, to consider another possibility based on just last year, June had two very impressive AEWs that had significant impact in the Caribbean. The 2nd one moved off Africa on June 23rd and lead to PTC advisories starting on 6/27 as it got to 51W. This later became Bonnie. Similar discussions were suggesting a very active MDR.

But after Bonnie, there wasn't even one impressive AEW for nearly two months until the one that formed into Earl moved off Africa on August 25th and became Earl near the LAs on 9/2-3. Everything that came off Africa was dry as a bone for two months and many folks were very surprised.

I would venture at 216 that is a weak TS near the islands on the euro. Impressive for june

Absolutely would be impressive for June to have an MDR TC.

I'm surprised Luis hasn't posted in several days. I hope he's ok.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 7&t=123409
He is ok but is struggling to get his account back

[WeatherBoy2000]

Fun is just starting. If these conditions come to pass with a TUTT placement similar to 2004 with the right steering look out.

https://i.postimg.cc/htk95jkh/cfs33.png

If development were to occur in the mdr this month, it could be a sign pointing towards a more active season down the line. Early mdr development in June through early July is unusual and correlates quite well with active seasons. Development of this wave could help further back up the case that we're looking at a more active season than usually expected with a robust El Nino.

With the 12Z Euro showing a TD in the MDR as early as on 6/21, that chance is increasing. That could very well be as you suggest an early indicator of an active season, especially compared to other robust Niño events.

However, to consider another possibility based on just last year, late June had two very impressive AEWs that had significant impact in the Caribbean. The 2nd one moved off Africa on June 23rd and lead to PTC advisories starting on 6/27 as it got to 51W. This later became Bonnie. Similar discussions were suggesting a very active MDR.

But after Bonnie, there wasn't even one impressive AEW for nearly two months until the one that formed into Earl moved off Africa on August 25th and became Earl near the LAs on 9/2-3. Everything that came off Africa was dry as a bone for two months and many folks were very surprised.

Yeah it's not a perfect correlation by any means and the notorious 2013 hurricane season also had this happen. In general, early season mdr development like this typically leads to a more active season and is even rarer with +enso years. 2018 is the most recent +enso year with early July mdr development and that year largely outperformed expectations from what I can recall. I just see this as another indication that the Atlantic may perform better than usual in the face of a likely robust el nino event (assuming that TC formation happens at all).

[USTropics]

If development were to occur in the mdr this month, it could be a sign pointing towards a more active season down the line. Early mdr development in June through early July is unusual and correlates quite well with active seasons. Development of this wave could help further back up the case that we're looking at a more active season than usually expected with a robust El Nino.

With the 12Z Euro showing a TD in the MDR as early as on 6/21, that chance is increasing. That could very well be as you suggest an early indicator of an active season, especially compared to other robust Niño events.

However, to consider another possibility based on just last year, late June had two very impressive AEWs that had significant impact in the Caribbean. The 2nd one moved off Africa on June 23rd and lead to PTC advisories starting on 6/27 as it got to 51W. This later became Bonnie. Similar discussions were suggesting a very active MDR.

But after Bonnie, there wasn't even one impressive AEW for nearly two months until the one that formed into Earl moved off Africa on August 25th and became Earl near the LAs on 9/2-3. Everything that came off Africa was dry as a bone for two months and many folks were very surprised.

Yeah it's not a perfect correlation by any means and the notorious 2013 hurricane season also had this happen. In general, early season mdr development like this typically leads to a more active season and is even rarer with +enso years. 2018 is the most recent +enso year with early July mdr development and that year largely outperformed expectations from what I can recall. I just see this as another indication that the Atlantic may perform better than usual in the face of a likely robust el nino event (assuming that TC formation happens at all).

Here is the research for all systems that formed east of the Caribbean and below 20N in the months of June/July:

Code: Select all

Bonnie 2022 (06/27)
Elsa 2021 (06/30)
Isaias 2020 (07/28)
Gonzalo 2020 (07/20)
Beryl 2018 (07/04)
Don 2017 (07/17)
Bret 2017 (06/18)
Bertha 2014 (07/29)
Dorian 2013 (07/22)
Chantal 2013 (07/07)
Bertha 2008 (07/03)
Emily 2005 (07/11)
Claudette 2003 (07/07)
Alex 1998 (07/27)
Bertha 1996 (07/05)
Chantal 1995 (07/12)
Arthur 1990 (07/22)
Barry 1989 (07/09)
Allen 1980 (07/31)
Claudette 1979 (07/15)
Ana 1979 (06/19)
Anna 1969 (07/25)
Ella 1966 (07/22)
Arlene 1963 (07/31)

Ace for those years:

Code: Select all

YEAR   ACE
2022   95.1
2021   145.7
2020   179.8
2018   132.6
2017   224.9
2013   36.1
2008   145.7
2005   245.3
1998   181.8
1996   166.2
1995   227.1
1990   96.8
1979   92.9
1969   165.7
1966   145.2
1963   112.1

Average ACE is 149.56. If you removed the unicorn year of 2013, average ACE would be 157.13.

[Teban54]

With the 12Z Euro showing a TD in the MDR as early as on 6/21, that chance is increasing. That could very well be as you suggest an early indicator of an active season, especially compared to other robust Niño events.

However, to consider another possibility based on just last year, late June had two very impressive AEWs that had significant impact in the Caribbean. The 2nd one moved off Africa on June 23rd and lead to PTC advisories starting on 6/27 as it got to 51W. This later became Bonnie. Similar discussions were suggesting a very active MDR.

But after Bonnie, there wasn't even one impressive AEW for nearly two months until the one that formed into Earl moved off Africa on August 25th and became Earl near the LAs on 9/2-3. Everything that came off Africa was dry as a bone for two months and many folks were very surprised.

Yeah it's not a perfect correlation by any means and the notorious 2013 hurricane season also had this happen. In general, early season mdr development like this typically leads to a more active season and is even rarer with +enso years. 2018 is the most recent +enso year with early July mdr development and that year largely outperformed expectations from what I can recall. I just see this as another indication that the Atlantic may perform better than usual in the face of a likely robust el nino event (assuming that TC formation happens at all).

Here is the research for all systems that formed east of the Caribbean and below 20N in the months of June/July:

Code: Select all

Bonnie 2022 (06/27)
Elsa 2021 (06/30)
Isaias 2020 (07/28)
Gonzalo 2020 (07/20)
Beryl 2018 (07/04)
Don 2017 (07/17)
Bret 2017 (06/18)
Bertha 2014 (07/29)
Dorian 2013 (07/22)
Chantal 2013 (07/07)
Bertha 2008 (07/03)
Emily 2005 (07/11)
Claudette 2003 (07/07)
Alex 1998 (07/27)
Bertha 1996 (07/05)
Chantal 1995 (07/12)
Arthur 1990 (07/22)
Barry 1989 (07/09)
Allen 1980 (07/31)
Claudette 1979 (07/15)
Ana 1979 (06/19)
Anna 1969 (07/25)
Ella 1966 (07/22)
Arlene 1963 (07/31)

Ace for those years:

Code: Select all

YEAR   ACE
2022   95.1
2021   145.7
2020   179.8
2018   132.6
2017   224.9
2013   36.1
2008   145.7
2005   245.3
1998   181.8
1996   166.2
1995   227.1
1990   96.8
1979   92.9
1969   165.7
1966   145.2
1963   112.1

Average ACE is 149.56. If you removed the unicorn year of 2013, average ACE would be 157.13.

I believe this is bugged, as Bonnie and Isaias didn't form until they entered the Caribbean, and Bertha 2014 only became a TC on Aug 1. Did you count their time as a waves and PTC?

[tiger_deF]

GFS is now showing MDR development within 90 hours. While I doubt a system will form that far east, it looks increasingly likely that we will get an MDR cyclone. Thankfully, shear seems to shred it before it approaches land.

[USTropics]

Yeah it's not a perfect correlation by any means and the notorious 2013 hurricane season also had this happen. In general, early season mdr development like this typically leads to a more active season and is even rarer with +enso years. 2018 is the most recent +enso year with early July mdr development and that year largely outperformed expectations from what I can recall. I just see this as another indication that the Atlantic may perform better than usual in the face of a likely robust el nino event (assuming that TC formation happens at all).

Here is the research for all systems that formed east of the Caribbean and below 20N in the months of June/July:

Code: Select all

Bonnie 2022 (06/27)
Elsa 2021 (06/30)
Isaias 2020 (07/28)
Gonzalo 2020 (07/20)
Beryl 2018 (07/04)
Don 2017 (07/17)
Bret 2017 (06/18)
Bertha 2014 (07/29)
Dorian 2013 (07/22)
Chantal 2013 (07/07)
Bertha 2008 (07/03)
Emily 2005 (07/11)
Claudette 2003 (07/07)
Alex 1998 (07/27)
Bertha 1996 (07/05)
Chantal 1995 (07/12)
Arthur 1990 (07/22)
Barry 1989 (07/09)
Allen 1980 (07/31)
Claudette 1979 (07/15)
Ana 1979 (06/19)
Anna 1969 (07/25)
Ella 1966 (07/22)
Arlene 1963 (07/31)

Ace for those years:

Code: Select all

YEAR   ACE
2022   95.1
2021   145.7
2020   179.8
2018   132.6
2017   224.9
2013   36.1
2008   145.7
2005   245.3
1998   181.8
1996   166.2
1995   227.1
1990   96.8
1979   92.9
1969   165.7
1966   145.2
1963   112.1

Average ACE is 149.56. If you removed the unicorn year of 2013, average ACE would be 157.13.

I believe this is bugged, as Bonnie and Isaias didn't form until they entered the Caribbean, and Bertha 2014 only became a TC on Aug 1. Did you count their time as a waves and PTC?

Bonnie and Isaias were initialized east of the Caribbean as tropical storms:
Bonnie 2022


Isaias 2020


reanalysis of Bertha 2014 has the system becoming a tropical storm on 7/31 at 00z (so on the last day of July, but will still count it)

[NotSparta]

Here is the research for all systems that formed east of the Caribbean and below 20N in the months of June/July:

Code: Select all

Bonnie 2022 (06/27)
Elsa 2021 (06/30)
Isaias 2020 (07/28)
Gonzalo 2020 (07/20)
Beryl 2018 (07/04)
Don 2017 (07/17)
Bret 2017 (06/18)
Bertha 2014 (07/29)
Dorian 2013 (07/22)
Chantal 2013 (07/07)
Bertha 2008 (07/03)
Emily 2005 (07/11)
Claudette 2003 (07/07)
Alex 1998 (07/27)
Bertha 1996 (07/05)
Chantal 1995 (07/12)
Arthur 1990 (07/22)
Barry 1989 (07/09)
Allen 1980 (07/31)
Claudette 1979 (07/15)
Ana 1979 (06/19)
Anna 1969 (07/25)
Ella 1966 (07/22)
Arlene 1963 (07/31)

Ace for those years:

Code: Select all

YEAR   ACE
2022   95.1
2021   145.7
2020   179.8
2018   132.6
2017   224.9
2013   36.1
2008   145.7
2005   245.3
1998   181.8
1996   166.2
1995   227.1
1990   96.8
1979   92.9
1969   165.7
1966   145.2
1963   112.1

Average ACE is 149.56. If you removed the unicorn year of 2013, average ACE would be 157.13.

I believe this is bugged, as Bonnie and Isaias didn't form until they entered the Caribbean, and Bertha 2014 only became a TC on Aug 1. Did you count their time as a waves and PTC?

Bonnie and Isaias were initialized east of the Caribbean as tropical storms:
Bonnie 2022
https://i.imgur.com/nmZ5Mlr.png

Isaias 2020
https://i.imgur.com/Fj4xytp.png

reanalysis of Bertha 2014 has the system becoming a tropical storm on 7/31 at 00z (so on the last day of July, but will still count it)
https://i.imgur.com/QNTtKoU.png

Seems to be treating the time Isaias and Bonnie were PTCs with TS force winds as them being full TCs. It is bugged indeed

[USTropics]

Bonnie and Isaias were initialized east of the Caribbean as tropical storms:
Bonnie 2022
https://i.imgur.com/nmZ5Mlr.png

Isaias 2020
https://i.imgur.com/Fj4xytp.png

reanalysis of Bertha 2014 has the system becoming a tropical storm on 7/31 at 00z (so on the last day of July, but will still count it)
https://i.imgur.com/QNTtKoU.png

Seems to be treating the time Isaias and Bonnie were PTCs with TS force winds as them being full TCs. It is bugged indeed

Good catch, that is indeed the issue on NOAA's website after looking at the bestTrac data now. Removing 2022, 2020 will remain as Gonzalo formed east of the Caribbean. Will remove Bertha 2014 as well since it's a fringe case. The updated data set:

Code: Select all

Elsa 2021 (06/30)
Gonzalo 2020 (07/20)
Beryl 2018 (07/04)
Don 2017 (07/17)
Bret 2017 (06/18)
Dorian 2013 (07/22)
Chantal 2013 (07/07)
Bertha 2008 (07/03)
Emily 2005 (07/11)
Claudette 2003 (07/07)
Alex 1998 (07/27)
Bertha 1996 (07/05)
Chantal 1995 (07/12)
Arthur 1990 (07/22)
Barry 1989 (07/09)
Allen 1980 (07/31)
Claudette 1979 (07/15)
Ana 1979 (06/19)
Anna 1969 (07/25)
Ella 1966 (07/22)
Arlene 1963 (07/31)

Code: Select all

YEAR   ACE
2021   145.7
2020   179.8
2018   132.6
2017   224.9
2013   36.1
2008   145.7
2005   245.3
1998   181.8
1996   166.2
1995   227.1
1990   96.8
1979   92.9
1969   165.7
1966   145.2
1963   112.1

This actually moves the ACE even further up, with 153.19 for all years and 161.56 when discounting 2013.

[SFLcane]

Hi guys, trying to get Luis reinstated. He will be back soon.

tolakram If you see this check your messages.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/meteo_cyclones/status/1669148463659905024

[AnnularCane]

1993? There was just Arlene in the Gulf in June.

[Category5Kaiju]

:double:

https://twitter.com/meteo_cyclones/status/1669148463659905024?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

What was so remarkable about 1993?

[SFLcane]

1993? There was just Arlene in the Gulf in June.

Lol yea I think they all had storms hit Dominica/Guadeloupe.

[zzzh]

I think it was meant to be 1933. Trinidad Hurricane formed in MDR in late June.

[crownweather]

:uarrow: I think it was meant to be 1933. Trinidad Hurricane formed in MDR in late June.

Got it confirmed - yes, it was supposed to be 1933.

 https://twitter.com/meteo_cyclones/status/1669176253113327617