Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Ivanhater]

12z runs

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[HurricaneBelle]

It sure seems like the east gulf has had a hot hand in recent years. My hood just got another 4" dump yesterday. We need a break after this month...what a difference a year makes after a freakishly dry July/August last year..

Yeah this decade alone we've had Eta, Elsa, Ian, Idalia, Debby and one or two I'm probably forgetting.

Irma

Irma was 2017, which was not in this decade

[SFLcane]

12z EPS was a pretty ridiculous run

https://i.imgur.com/nBsZxXy.gif

https://i.imgur.com/98GNB1B.png

[SouthFLTropics]

While the 12 EPS is impressive with the number of members it has, the spread on it by the time it reaches 25 north is considerably wide. Almost 1100 nautical miles apart. Consensus is threatening at the moment, but we won't get a more locked in idea until we get an exact center to track.

[DunedinDave]

That Euro track is giving me Ian memories.

[SFLcane]

While the 12 EPS is impressive with the number of members it has, the spread on it by the time it reaches 25 north is considerably wide. Almost 1100 nautical miles apart. Consensus is threatening at the moment, but we won't get a more locked in idea until we get an exact center to track.

[Teban54]

12z EPS was a pretty ridiculous run

https://i.imgur.com/nBsZxXy.gif

https://i.imgur.com/98GNB1B.png

I seem to see a few members starting from the BoC and moving NE across the Gulf. Are they from this wave (possibly from some members that don't develop it until much later), or a separate disturbance? GEFS has been showing some mischief in Western Caribbean and/or BoC lately, but I had assumed that's just GFS bias.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro Ensembles

[WaveBreaking]

12z Euro Ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/tKgiA7Y.gif

Definitely some powerful members that track into the Sargasso Sea.

[caneman]

Yeah this decade alone we've had Eta, Elsa, Ian, Idalia, Debby and one or two I'm probably forgetting.

Irma

Irma was 2017, which was not in this decade

I thought you meant decade like in last 10 years.

[Iceresistance]

12z Euro Ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/tKgiA7Y.gif

I am not sure if you noticed this, but I have noticed a exceptionally strong member of 916 mb in the Western Caribbean from the 12z Euro-ENS, that is stronger than Beryl from July!


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SoUUx.png

[Teban54]

12z Euro Ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/tKgiA7Y.gif

I am not sure if you noticed this, but I have noticed a exceptionally strong member of 916 mb in the Western Caribbean from the 12z Euro-ENS, that is stronger than Beryl from July!

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SoUUx.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SoUUx.png

That would probably require the system to start organizing right now, which it hasn't been doing, so I think it's safe to write that one out haha. But yeah, the fact that a 916 mb member even showed up at all is quite insane.

Edit: Looking at this again (and the 928 mb member to the south), I think the gist is -- if the system somehow becomes a hurricane when entering the Caribbean... Watch out.

[Stratton23]

Yikes that 12z Euro AIFS is something else

[WaveBreaking]

Yikes that 12z Euro AIFS is something else

[SFLcane]

Near 100%...

[Ivanhater]

The same conditions that are causing the MDR to be suppressed looks to also be the reason Florida and the Gulf are in increasing danger of a major hurricane in a week or so

[cycloneye]

Forget the models and look at realtime satelite. Looks good at the dmin period.

[zal0phus]

This reminds me of an old-timey hurricane season somehow. Activity is slow in the early phases, but historic after historic storm starts rolling in at the end of August. Curious how this will play out

[Kazmit]

This reminds me of an old-timey hurricane season somehow. Activity is slow in the early phases, but historic after historic storm starts rolling in at the end of August. Curious how this will play out

I get what you mean. It seems like the last 15 years or so have had more quantity-over-quality kind of seasons. This season has pretty much no slop.

[WaveBreaking]

This reminds me of an old-timey hurricane season somehow. Activity is slow in the early phases, but historic after historic storm starts rolling in at the end of August. Curious how this will play out

I get what you mean. It seems like the last 15 years or so have had more quantity-over-quality kind of seasons. This season has pretty much no slop.

Even the storms that could be seen as slop (Chris and maybe Alberto) both had deep tropical origins as opposed to starting as mid-latitude or subtropical cyclones. Which can’t be said for pretty any season in the past 10 years (except for 2023 with the storms, excluding Franklin, that came out of the monsoon trough breakdown in August).