Low Pressure developing in the Southwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 97L)

[Michele B]

10m wind field and 925mb vorticity indicate a low might be forming.

https://tropicwatch.info/10mwind110120241729z.png

https://tropicwatch.info/925mb110120241500.jpg

What the H !?!?!?!?

Now there's TWO of them?!?!?!?!

Is this season ever going to end???

There’s actually 3 areas being monitored with two at Code Orange or higher. Some model runs are hinting at another storm north of Puerto Rico in a week or so as well.

This is….too much….

I’m sure I’m not alone when I say “I am so over this season…”

[Jr0d]

Getting close to an invest in my amateur opinion.

Hopefully we just see at most a disorganized late season tropical storm....that struggles to get going..

Who knows, I am certain dont. After having tropical storm conditions 3 times this year I got Jimmy Buffet's "Trying to reason with hurricane season" stuck in my head when I see this.

We are still a month away from the ceremonial burning of the hurricane flags...

[chaser1]

With slow steady organization I could see this disturbance developing into a TS in 4-6 days. The question is, which sounds more ominous -
Hurricane Patty or Hurricane Rafael? For me, "Hurricane Rafael" just doesn't quite seem as threatening. Maybe because "Patty" just sounds more like an old-school "throwback" type of name that would have been used back in the day?

[Stormlover70]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
258 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.LONG TERM (MON-FRI)...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

Going into next week, guidance continues to bring ample moisture
across the peninsula and therefore an increase in rain chances.
There continues to be high uncertainty, but we keep monitoring
an area highlighted by the National Hurricane Center over the
southwestern Caribbean with a 80% chance of development. In
addition, another area could develop near the Hispaniola with a
10% chance. It is unknown what if these features would have any
impacts to the the state, if any. Please remain informed and visit
NHC`s website for more details.

Florida is closed!!! But seriously, It's like a turtle stalking us once again...

[xironman]

The ridge should fend it off from the gulf coast, and upper conditions are poor. But still a ways away



Where the upper high sets up is critical, where it is now it is whacking the storm with shear. More west and conditions will improve



Dry air not really an issue

[Pasmorade]

Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves generally northward to northwestward over the central
and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[tropicwatch]

What are the requirements to tag a system as an Invest? I don't think I have seen 60/80 before without being an Invest.

[gatorcane]

Several global models bring this into the EGOM or near/into the FL peninsula. The GFS and ECMWF are quite a bit further west in the GOM (for now) which is good, but climatology suggests it ends up more east:

06Z NAVGEM:


06Z ICON with a similar track:


00Z CMC into the EGOM:

[SFLcane]

[underthwx]

What the H !?!?!?!?

Now there's TWO of them?!?!?!?!

Is this season ever going to end???

There’s actually 3 areas being monitored with two at Code Orange or higher. Some model runs are hinting at another storm north of Puerto Rico in a week or so as well.

This is….too much….

I’m sure I’m not alone when I say “I am so over this season…”

Who knows? Maybe there will be activity in December?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Cuba and potentially the Florida Keys have the most to watch out for from this one, IMHO. I think a 75 knot peak is possible before being ripped up by shear.

[ronjon]

The good news from all the models is future Rafael should remain weak as a tropical storm or perhaps as strong as a CAT 1 hurricane. Conditions in the GOM are not ideal for significant strengthening. Still some uncertainty on ultimate track once it emerges into the GOM with Euro the outlier for now into the BOC. The Euro-AI however follows most of the models into the eastern GOM.

[chaser1]

GFS suggesting this disturbance will be <1000 mb in 48 hr.s; add to that that the GFS has been steadfast with the same 6Z Wed Nov 4 forecast for 5 model runs in a row. That, along with most other global models also predicting a TC (of varying intensity) to emerge off the N.W Cuban coast in about 108 hr's from now. Meanwhile, I look at satellite and can't help but think that the GFS is too fast with genesis. Hopefully, a slower genesis might just be the difference between a possible Lower Keys threat, and high pressure having further built over Florida pushing any threat from the south further to the west.

[SFLcane]

[underthwx]

https://i.postimg.cc/fLw65rDT/bbbb.gif

What will be steering the low? Will it be picked up by a frontal boundary? I read that the low, currently near Puerto Rico is expected to be absorbed into this low pressure system. Interesting setup.

[Jr0d]

Cuba and potentially the Florida Keys have the most to watch out for from this one, IMHO. I think a 75 knot peak is possible before being ripped up by shear.

This is really going to put a hamper on the Key West offshore power boat races that are a week long event starting tomorrow, the race days are scheduled for Wednesday, Friday and Sunday...i doubt the conditions will allow for racing Wednesday and Thursday, a contingency day), they will likely have to run extra races on Friday and/or race run races on Saturday also.

While the current forecast shows a fairly fast moving system that is not too strong affecting the area, this could change. Hopefully at worse we just get a brief period of tropical storm conditions(for the 4th time this year). Fortunately the doom model runs have disappeared as dealing with a hurricane that could force evacuations with all the extra people in town would be a nightmare.

[SFLcane]

https://i.postimg.cc/fLw65rDT/bbbb.gif

What will be steering the low? Will it be picked up by a frontal boundary? I read that the low, currently near Puerto Rico is expected to be absorbed into this low pressure system. Interesting setup.

With still 3-5 days before any impacts in Florida that east trend is something to keep an eye on.

[xironman]

Looks like the eddy near Costa Rica will be dominant. The gyre should send it east and then north

[underthwx]

https://i.postimg.cc/fLw65rDT/bbbb.gif

What will be steering the low? Will it be picked up by a frontal boundary? I read that the low, currently near Puerto Rico is expected to be absorbed into this low pressure system. Interesting setup.

With still 3-5 days before any impacts in Florida that east trend is something to keep an eye on.

I agree. I know that nobody wants another storm, that goes without saying, but as you say, this needs to be watched. Thanks for your reply.

[tolakram]

What are the requirements to tag a system as an Invest? I don't think I have seen 60/80 before without being an Invest.

Where would you tag the low? I think that's the primary issue at the moment. The picture seems to be getting clearer but I'm still wondering where the center will be located.