2025 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

KIngarabian Looks like basin will turn once again active very soon.

[cycloneye]

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico early next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for some development as
the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percen

[Kingarabian]

KIngarabian Looks like basin will turn once again active very soon.

https://i.imgur.com/xmVCUqI.jpeg

Possible. Some of the models runs keep pushing back development though.

[cycloneye]

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico early next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for some development as
the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico early next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for some development and a
tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of
next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Western East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure centered about 1500 miles east-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible as it moves generally westward during the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

3. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico early next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter
part of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[Kingarabian]

No coherent systems on the Euro although the disturbances are clearly there. GFS and CMC showing 2-3 systems in the EPAC.

Despite the hot start, ACE is below normal in the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

Western East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure about 1500 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
as it moves generally westward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico early next week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter
part of next week as the system moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

Western East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
few days while it moves generally westward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form late this week as the system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[Kingarabian]

4 systems on the GFS/EURO/CM over the next 16 days. Varying in intensity but good agreement this far out.

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT:

1. Western East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some gradual development of this system is possible during the next
couple of days while it moves generally westward around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form late this week as the system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

5 PM PDT:

1. Western East Pacific:
A low pressure area has formed well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. While the associated thunderstorm activity is currently
disorganized, gradual development of this system is possible during
the next couple of days while it moves generally westward around
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather has developed several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. During the next day or
two, an area of low pressure is forecast to form from this system
well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week as the
system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure any of these will form south enough to achieve formidable intensity.

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to
later part of this week as it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Not much of a solid Sub Tropical Ridge so far over the EPAC. Systems keep finding ways to escape NW, ending up in cooler than normal waters sooner.

[cycloneye]

The models have a few future tropical cyclones in the next 10-15 days but let's see as it has been mentioned, if one or two dont go up too fast to meet the cooler waters. A true longtracker stays between latituids 10N-15N to get plenty of ACE.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Iona, located in the central Pacific basin well south-southeast of
the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Keli also located in the
central Pacific basin well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.

1. Western East Pacific (EP98):
A well-defined area of low pressure located around 1500 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce a
limited amount of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear marginally conducive for some development of this
system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form
during the next day or two as it moves generally westward around 10
mph. This system is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about
500 miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

3. Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
southern or southwestern Mexico late this week or over the weekend
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
southern or southwestern Mexico late this week or over the weekend.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

This has been a very active outbreak and the important thing is without having El Niño.

Central East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
southern or southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system and a tropical depression could develop over the weekend or
early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of
southern or southwestern Mexico late this week. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this
system and a tropical depression could develop over the weekend or
early next week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.