Tropical Wave WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 91L)

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS Ensembles are still very different from operational, and so are most of the 0z euro ensembles. Based on this alone the recurve is probably still the most likely. But there needs to be something tangible to track first, either way.

0z GFS Ensembles


EPS/Euro Ensembles


Google:

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
over the eastern tropical Atlantic several hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have started to consolidate
and become slightly better organized. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development of this system during the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or
this weekend over central tropical Atlantic while moving slowly
toward the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph. The system is likely to
move faster toward the west or west-northwest thereafter and reach
the waters east of the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[TallyTracker]

Those Florida near-miss scenarios that cause 5 million people to evacuate looks like a Floyd reborn scenario. Far from certain, but certainly possible and not unprecedented to have a hurricane take that particular path.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

0z GFS Ensembles are still very different from operational, and so are most of the 0z euro ensembles. Based on this alone the recurve is probably still the most likely. But there needs to be something tangible to track first, either way.

0z GFS Ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/WGXDzMj.png

EPS/Euro Ensembles
https://i.imgur.com/1A7YWFd.png

Google:
https://i.imgur.com/fzPMdtp.png

Agree, this looks like a Bermuda storm but it is so early still.

[jlauderdal]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/bYVQw2xn/IMG-1068.jpg

Adrian,
We finally received rain on the SE Coast, let's keep the hurricanes away.
J

[caneseddy]

6z GFS ends up hitting South Carolina after getting very close to hitting South Florida

Also has another MDR storm right behind it heading to Leewards (bit of course it’s fantasyland)

[cycloneye]

Invest 91L is up