TD 10...Back Again

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looks as thought the dry air and shear are decreasing ahead of TD10. I'd say that an Irene-like pulse on/off of convection is likely through 24 hours, well maybe 12 hours, then a gradual organization, then a progressive if not rapid intensification out to 96 hours. Based on teh ULL over SA "throwing" some moisture out in from of TD 10 to work with.

Looks like the shear is just as bad, if not worse up ahead. Run the vis loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

and look at the islands to the west, see how the clouds forming over during the day are being ripped NE.... does not seem very good for tropical development.

EDIT: Frank2, you beat me to it.... great minds think alike

Well, the CIMSS analyses have showing 10+ knot shear over the lesser Antilles, however they have also been promising an area of an area of sub-10 knot shear northeast of PR / north-northeast of the northern most Lesser Antilles... but as it stands now, the system would have to go back into 20 + knot areas after that...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

Yes, I agree I don't think we'll see an upgrade until tomorrow when it finds a sweet spot for a while, but it even may get downgraded before it starts strenghtening in earnest. A lot depends on speed now. I think we're a couple of days away from getting any organization/height to this system, so as long as a LLC stays or re-froms TD 10 is player.

[Sanibel]

Shallowness of system should bode southern tendency.

However slow speed could denote WNW pull up ahead...

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

[Blown Away]

It's hanging on, the tops are getting blown off but it appears it still wants to continue wrapping around the circulation.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My friend if this was in the Gulf of Mexico they would be calling this a tropical storm. There is a well defined LLC with bursting convection. Of course it is going to pulse when you still have shear over it. I wonder how hot Joe b is over it?

[webke]

It looks like it is losing it's punch, does anyone think it will gain back it convection tomorrow, or is it winding down.

[Deenac813]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

18Z guidance... worth noting that all three BAMs are now keeping the system south of 20° N as it crosses 60° W (although the BAMD does it just barely).

Isnt that the Herbert Box???

[gkrangers]

My friend if this was in the Gulf of Mexico they would be calling this a tropical storm. There is a well defined LLC with bursting convection. Of course it is going to pulse when you still have shear over it. I wonder how hot Joe b is over it?

If this was in the GOM, they would have recon in there confirming that its not a TS, and barely a TD, if at all.

[Ivanhater]

It looks like it is losing it's punch, does anyone think it will gain back it convection tomorrow, or is it winding down.

its actually going under another pulse right now.....its not winding down

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is as laughable as heck! This has a well defined LLC in is blowing another burst right over it. Is that just a bash or fact? I don't think so.

[gatorcane]

believe you might be right. I have had a weird feeling about this storm.... remember last year how you just know when the storm is coming. I'm not predicting anything but, I have been looking at thing since birth and it's still holding on. I think i will check over my supply kit and pick up a few things. Again not forcasting or saying anything.

Irene fought off the hostile conditions and became a cat 2 once conditions improved....no reason why this won't and it's more south than Irene...

[webke]

That is as laughable as heck! This has a well defined LLC in is blowing another burst right over it. Is that just a bash or fact? I don't think so.

I don not quite understand what you are trying to say.

[WeatherEmperor]

yup. looks like its gonna pulse on and off for a while longer.

<RICKY>

[Eyes2theSkies]

not quite the hebert box but will be passing through it tomorrow

[clfenwi]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

18Z guidance... worth noting that all three BAMs are now keeping the system south of 20° N as it crosses 60° W (although the BAMD does it just barely).

Isnt that the Hebert Box???

Yep, it walks the system across the northeast corner of Hebert Box #1 ( http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm )

[sma10]

That is as laughable as heck! This has a well defined LLC in is blowing another burst right over it. Is that just a bash or fact? I don't think so.

One of the most important characteristic the NHC looks for in upgrading a system to TD is PERSISTANCE. It doesn't matter that there is a closed low. Everyone knows it's a closed low. The NHC is CALLING it a low. But the convection keeps waxing and waning. Until it persists they will not upgrade it.

Why do you keep bashing the NHC and telling us how they should do their job?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Bashing the NHC? No not bashing them at all just saying that a closed LLC with even a sheared look has made many a named cyclone. In if that shear dies down this could really get organized fast. Everything is there.

Just saying my option of it. This is a very well defined system in I have different option.

[ROCK]

That is as laughable as heck! This has a well defined LLC in is blowing another burst right over it. Is that just a bash or fact? I don't think so.

One of the most important characteristic the NHC looks for in upgrading a system to TD is PERSISTANCE. It doesn't matter that there is a closed low. Everyone knows it's a closed low. The NHC is CALLING it a low. But the convection keeps waxing and waning. Until it persists they will not upgrade it.

Why do you keep bashing the NHC and telling us how they should do their job?

I do believe we all know what the NHC looks for, Small. And
I dont think he was bashing the NHC. Just stating an opinion as to the overall appearance of X-TD 10.

[sma10]

I do believe we all know what the NHC looks for

Apparently.........we all DON'T know what the NHC looks for