TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#261 Postby **THead** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 11:54 pm

Yeah, could do its damage in fla then visit the outer banks down the road. A week plus of watching this thing......ugh. I'm tired just thinking about it.

jkt21787 · #262 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 11:56 pm

Brent wrote:The EURO is absolutely unbelievable... massive disaster with SNOW FROM THE HURRICANE in the Northeast.

Anyone got a link?

You have to pay a very large subscription fee to get those images (long term out to day 10) from the Euro...

krysof · #263 Postby **krysof** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 11:56 pm

THead wrote:Yeah, could do its damage in fla then visit the outer banks down the road. A week plus of watching this thing......ugh. I'm tired just thinking about it.

the latest makes it into an enormous storm

krysof · #264 Postby **krysof** » Sat Oct 15, 2005 11:57 pm

THead wrote:Yeah, could do its damage in fla then visit the outer banks down the road. A week plus of watching this thing......ugh. I'm tired just thinking about it.

the latest gfs makes it into an enormous storm

#265 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:00 am

krysof wrote:
THead wrote:Yeah, could do its damage in fla then visit the outer banks down the road. A week plus of watching this thing......ugh. I'm tired just thinking about it.

the latest gfs makes it into an enormous storm

Yeah, but I thought someone was saying earlier that the GFS doesn't do intensity very well, for some reason that escapes me at the moment......

boca · #266 Postby **boca** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:01 am

This storm is really winding up.

Website · #267 Postby **Brent** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:01 am

THead wrote:
krysof wrote:
THead wrote:Yeah, could do its damage in fla then visit the outer banks down the road. A week plus of watching this thing......ugh. I'm tired just thinking about it.

the latest gfs makes it into an enormous storm

Yeah, but I thought someone was saying earlier that the GFS doesn't do intensity very well, for some reason that escapes me at the moment......

It doesn't... the 0z model run last night showed NOTHING even similar to what it's showing tonight. No closed low, no nothing. Certainly no hurricane anywhere.

#268 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:04 am

not sure how old this is, i think its the 00z for nogaps.....slams it into the yucatan and turns it a bit north at the end

boca · #269 Postby **boca** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:05 am

It's amazing what 24 hours does to a model and Sunday night we'll see something different including more senarios.

Website · #270 Postby **Brent** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:07 am

ivanhater wrote:not sure how old this is, i think its the 00z for nogaps.....slams it into the yucatan and turns it a bit north at the end

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... .namer.gif

Yep... that's tonight's 0z run.

#271 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:08 am

So basically what we're seeing so far is that if she gets picked up by this trough, there really isn't going to be a good path for florida, someone on the west coast, panhandle, keys or southern tip of the peninsula is going to get it. Am I seeing that right, or is there a scenario if it gets picked up that it would somehow miss florida. I spose it could go through the straits?

#272 Postby **curtadams** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:08 am

All the models are going to thrash around with Wilma-to-be because of the weak steering currents. This morning the GFDL showed something worse than Mitch - a huge Cat 5 into Honduras. Now it's a weak Cat 3 heading to Western Cuba. Probably a major somewhere, but to know how major and even which direction we'll just have to wait a few days.

#273 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:09 am

Brent wrote:
ivanhater wrote:not sure how old this is, i think its the 00z for nogaps.....slams it into the yucatan and turns it a bit north at the end

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... .namer.gif

Yep... that's tonight's 0z run.

ok good

floridahurricaneguy · #274 Postby **floridahurricaneguy** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:09 am

boca wrote:I don't think Tampa likes that trough.

We dont! But I guess insteading of griping about it here. We will just be ready and prepared. We can get our home back and our things but not our family. MY family and all our relatives know that and we wont let Wilma ruin our family. We are all in this together whatever pans out.

MAtt

Website · #275 Postby **Brent** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:11 am

THead wrote:So basically what we're seeing so far is that if she gets picked up by this trough, there really isn't going to be a good path for florida, someone on the west coast, panhandle, keys or southern tip of the peninsula is going to get it. Am I seeing that right, or is there a scenario if it gets picked up that it would somehow miss florida. I spose it could go through the straits?

It could miss Florida to the east (ala Michelle) but it would probably be a REALLY close call. Not a complete miss... and the trough will have to be really strong.

#276 Postby **THead** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:14 am

Brent wrote:
THead wrote:So basically what we're seeing so far is that if she gets picked up by this trough, there really isn't going to be a good path for florida, someone on the west coast, panhandle, keys or southern tip of the peninsula is going to get it. Am I seeing that right, or is there a scenario if it gets picked up that it would somehow miss florida. I spose it could go through the straits?

It could miss Florida to the east (ala Michelle) but it would probably be a REALLY close call. Not a complete miss... and the trough will have to be really strong.

Ok, so correct me if I'm wrong, but that would mean a fairly strong cold front would have to move right through miami within the next week? To make it do a "Michelle". If so, that would be great, and I would welcome the cool weather!

floridahurricaneguy · #277 Postby **floridahurricaneguy** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:15 am

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This forecast is totally amatuer and take it for such. No -removed- is involved and its based mostly off NHC and other models. This is a predicted path and will be updated and changes. All points are 12 hour periods

Intensity Forecast:
Current: 30 mph
12 hours: 40 mph
24 hours: 50 mph
36 hours: 63 mph
48 hours: 75 mph
60 hours: 90 mph
72 hours: 100 mph
84 hours: 105 mph
96 hours: 115 mph
108 hours: 120 mph
Past this point is extremely uncertain

Forecast Path:

artist · #278 Postby **artist** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:19 am

but the gfdl didn't have any recon info last night or early this morning either which gives it a little more credence tonight I would think.

fasterdisaster · #279 Postby **fasterdisaster** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:21 am

Can you please tell me if I'm right that you are forecasting the track for the next seven days, and the intensity for 4 and a half days?

Website · #280 Postby **Brent** » Sun Oct 16, 2005 12:24 am

THead wrote:Ok, so correct me if I'm wrong, but that would mean a fairly strong cold front would have to move right through miami within the next week? To make it do a "Michelle". If so, that would be great, and I would welcome the cool weather!

Which is exactly why I think it's unlikely.

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