Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[truballer#1]

Hey trueballer, what model did you post? and how old is it? thanks in advance.

its da gfs

[Derek Ortt]

wrong, stormcenter

everyone, please disregard his comments about a hurricane being a hurricane and no difference except for intensity. Its misinformation

[Recurve]

It's the Oct. 17 12z run, showing a bad thing 144 hours hence.
(Monday 8 am EDT run)

[Recurve]

Sweet swirl popping out now at the center on visible floater loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

[artist]

she is definately a rain maker - things just keep getting worse in Jamaica -

Mon Oct 17, 2005
Roadblocks, landslides reported island-wide

After almost five days of continuous rains in some sections of the island the National Works Agency (NWA) is reporting flooding, landslides and roadblocks in several communities.

The hardest hit areas appear to be St. Thomas, Portland, St. Catherine and Kingston and St. Andrew.

Acting Communications Manager at the National Works Agency, Petra Kene-Williams, says efforts are being made to clear some of the more than 20 roadblocks already reported.

She says in St. Thomas the Yallahs Fording remains flooded while the NWA has received several reports of other blocked roads.

Motorists are also being advised that the Bog Walk Gorge has been closed to vehicular traffic.



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Mon Oct 17, 2005
Emergency shelter opened in Portmore

In Portmore, St. Catherine at least one emergency shelter has been opened following flooding in several communities.

Mayor of Portmore, George Lee, says equipment is now being moved in to clear some of the blocked drains which have caused the flooding.

However while that is being done the Portmore Municipal Council has put plans in place to transport persons who have been flooded out.

Meanwhile, Councillor for the Westchester Division in Portmore, Natalie Campbell-Rodriques, says some residents are being evacuated because the nearby canals have started to overflow their banks.

She is calling for immediate assistance from Central Government.

According to the Councillor, when the estimate was done last year it was found that it would take $10 million to clean the canals.




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Mon Oct 17, 2005
Flooding reported in Corporate Area

Mayor of Kingston, Desmond McKenzie, says at least 30 communities in the Corporate Area are now flooded.

He says the response from the emergency services has been slow forcing the Kingston and St. Andrew Corporation to mobilise teams to provide assistance where possible.

In the meantime, Mayor McKenzie has again called for the government to re-evaluate sections of the Corporate Area that he insists need to be declared disaster zones.

Making specific reference to the community of Taylor Land in Bull Bay, St. Andrew, Mayor McKenzie says unless this area is abandoned the authorities will continue to waste funds that could be allocated to other development.

Mon Oct 17, 2005
People stranded, ODPEM kept busy

A call is being made for immediate assistance for a group of persons stranded near Mavis Bank in rural St. Andrew.

Callers to our News Centre say the members of the group have been unable to move for almost 24 hours.

In the meantime, the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) is scrambling to co-ordinate relief efforts across the parishes hard hit by the flood rains.

Director General of ODPEM, Dr. Barbara Carby, told our News Centre that so far several shelters have been opened in St. Catherine and Kingston and St. Andrew.

She says the ODPEM is working with all other agencies in an effort to provide relief to affected persons.

According to Dr. Carby, the ODPEM's emergency operation centre will remain open for as long as relief efforts are needed.

from http://www.televisionjamaica.com/news/s ... category=2

My prayers are with all being affected by Wilma

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the latest shear chart... shear is low and decreasing in some areas around Wilma...

[Vortex]

The Nam has joined most of the rest of the models and has shifted drastically E compared to the last day or so. The model is through 48 hours at this point....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

[markymark8]

The center just took in a big wedge of dry air - you can see it go in on the visible loop. Predictably, convection is weaking dramatically around the center. So I don't expect it to strengthen for a while and I expect it will keep drifting S towards the convection another 12 hours at least.

Yes indeed....... Same thing I been saying for awhile . If Wilma cant mix this dry air out in the future she will be all hype for sure. This tells it all. Look how much dry air has entered into her center for the last couple of hours. Katrina and Rita DID NOT have this much dry air either to contend with. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

[txwatcher91]

The center just took in a big wedge of dry air - you can see it go in on the visible loop. Predictably, convection is weaking dramatically around the center. So I don't expect it to strengthen for a while and I expect it will keep drifting S towards the convection another 12 hours at least.

Yes indeed....... Same thing I been saying for awhile . If Wilma cant mix this dry air out in the future she will be all hype for sure. This tells it all. Look how much dry air has entered into her center for the last couple of hours. Katrina and Rita DID NOT have this much dry air either to contend with guys. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

That may be true, but look at the tall storm tops firing up over the center again.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

[senorpepr]

where did I mention anything about track?


Structural dynamics have nothing to do with the track. This will resemble the typical Atlantic hurricane, not a WPAC typhoon like Katrina and Rita did

Sorry but a hurricane is a hurricane the only difference is some are stronger and larger than others.

ummm... actually structural dynamics of a hurricane are key and typically hurricanes in a region of the world tend to have similar structures than in other parts of the world.

Katrina and Rita were more WPAC-like whereas Wilma is more Atlantic-like.

[Windtalker1]

I really believe the models are onto something by turning Wilma toward South Florida. I do believe that the big cold front coming down into the gulf by Thursday will force Wilma onto a more eastly direction. The high over South Florida is starting to sink South....the winds were NE yesterday, ENE this morning and now on a more easterly flow. Only time will tell and the time tells me Monroe/Collier County line. I still stand behind my forcast of yesterday. In responce to the dry air....don't worry, as that high breaks down over Florida and moves South...there will be plenty of moisture to pick her back up.

[brunota2003]

This is from this afternoon's forecast discussion for my area, which is in eastern NC, looks good for me...:

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOC
WITH DEVELOPING LOW IN THE CENTRAL US WILL HANG CLOSE TO THE NC/VA
BORDER ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING A RETURN TO CLOUDY/RAINY WX BEGINNING
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY. LOW WILL HANG AROUND INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
ADVANCING NE ALONG THE EAST COAST. LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE
CURRENT T.S. WILMA MAY STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS WEEKEND.

[Stormcenter]

wrong, stormcenter

everyone, please disregard his comments about a hurricane being a hurricane and no difference except for intensity. Its misinformation

I said intensity and size not just intensity. So is there another scale to measure a hurricane other than the one the NHC uses that ONLY you know and the NHC is not telling anyone but you?
Derek why do you always what to make it "seem" like you know more than anyone else?

[Patrick99]

I really believe the models are onto something by turning Wilma toward South Florida. I do believe that the big cold front coming down into the gulf by Thursday will force Wilma onto a more eastly direction. The high over South Florida is starting to sink South....the winds were NE yesterday, ENE this morning and now on a more easterly flow. Only time will tell and the time tells me Monroe/Collier County line. I still stand behind my forcast of yesterday. In responce to the dry air....don't worry, as that high breaks down over Florida and moves South...there will be plenty of moisture to pick her back up.

The Key West forecast discussion mentioned a moisture return into the area. I don't think that very dry air will be a fixture there.

[CHRISTY]

yep really starting to get interesting for south florida to say the least...

[f5]

Katrina&Rita took up almost the entire GOM i hope Wilma doesn't do the same.a wide area of CAT 1 winds can do just as much damage as a CAT 3 or 4 beacuse they last longer than your average hurricane

[txwatcher91]

wrong, stormcenter

everyone, please disregard his comments about a hurricane being a hurricane and no difference except for intensity. Its misinformation

I said intensity and size not just intensity. So is there another scale to measure a hurricane other than the one the NHC uses that ONLY you know and the NHC is not telling anyone but you?
Derek why do you always what to make it "seem" like you know more than anyone else?

I think what Derek was trying to say was that intensity and size are not the only differences in hurricanes, structure is also a difference. For example,Katrina and Rita had a structure typical of a WPAC hurricane and not an Atlantic hurricane.

[Weatherfreak14]

I would'nt expect this to be that big. Well new update should be coming in very shortly.

[TS Zack]

I would like to see some consistency before I believe the GFS.

It is now showing a strong low pressure pulling out of Canada. If it does occur then it would bring some pretty chilly weather for the SE. I just can't believe that at this point because the GFS has a bias with early fall cold fronts.

[dhweather]

Sweet swirl popping out now at the center on visible floater loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

It this were baseball, I'd say Wilma is in the "wind up"

and we get to wait for the pitch.