Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

[gatorcane]

I doubt we will see a cedar key landfall, but increased moisture is likely.

More like the west coast of Florida, Tampa area or south. Just look at this blob folks. It is clearly more ENE than it was yesterday and it continues to keep edging more ENE.....most of it is under Cuba now.

[Jim Cantore]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just my take, My confidence on it is a little higher then last night

leave P'cola out of this

I hope it turns out that way

what?

I meant by it misses you

lol, ok... I was thinking, what did I do to you?

You guys in the last two years have gotten enough Hurricanes to not be due until 2132

I hear ya on that

Please share with us valid meterological reasoning as to why this storm would go to nw fla?

I did say my confidence in it was rather low.

I'm basing this on two decent models, and a little climotology. Thats all I got now, as the pieces fall in place I can make something with better reasoning but thats all I have for now.

[canetracker]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just my take, My confidence on it is a little higher then last night

leave P'cola out of this

I hope it turns out that way

Almost looks like a Tropical Storm Arlene track. Hope this is not a dejavu scenario of last year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I doubt we will see a cedar key landfall, but increased moisture is likely.

More like the west coast of Florida, Tampa area or south

My current thinking is a landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Naples. I think the door is open for many places...except may be south TX and extreme south FL (though anything is possible).

[ronjon]

I noticed that the 18Z GFDL has come back to reality in the GOM with a strong tropical storm intensity prior to making landfall near Cedar Key on Monday afternoon. The model also moves the low center due N to the western tip of Cuba and then moves the system NW into south-central GOM before making the turn to the NE.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Extremeweatherguy]

I doubt we will see a cedar key landfall, but increased moisture is likely.

More like the west coast of Florida, Tampa area or south. Just look at this blob folks. It is clearly more ENE than it was yesterday and it continues to keep edging more ENE.....most of it is under Cuba now.

The LLC is not under that blob though, and according to the NHC...it is not forecasted to go under that blob.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Why do you doubt that, Extreme?

Nevermind, I do not doubt it anymore. For a second I thought cedar key was in the 'keys', but now I remember that it isn't.

[Windtalker1]

To far North .....My guess is Cape Coral area.

[gatorcane]

To far North .....My guess is Cape Coral area.

I think somewhere along the west coast of Florida is the general consensus...

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTBW 100018
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
818 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006

...RAIN IN THE OFFING?...

.UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROVIDED MORE THAN AN INCH OF
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF LEE COUNTY IS BEGINNING TO FADE...WHILE OTHER
LESSER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTHEAST
ARE JUST ABOUT KAPUT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES
ARE ON THEIR WAY DOWN FROM A HOT...BUT DRY...AFTERNOON. MANY AREAS
SURPASSED 95 DEGREES...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ONCE AGAIN (MID 60S COOLER
LOCATIONS TO LOWER OR MID 70S URBAN CENTERS AND NEAR THE COAST).
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME...BUT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION THREAT FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD AS THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE TROPICS BEGINS
TO APPROACH.

AND THEN IT GETS INTERESTING. SATELLITE IMAGES AND FALLING SURFACE
PRESSURES ALL POINT TO A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...A PANCAKE 500 MB RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SAME
TIME...WESTERLIES CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTH THAN NORMAL FOR MID
JUNE...EXTENDING SOUTH OF 35 DEGREES NORTH. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT
THE DEVELOPING WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. WHERE...WHEN...AND IF IT MOVES THEREAFTER REMAINS
QUITE UNCERTAIN. AS DOES THE LEVEL OF STRENGTHENING.

ALL THIS SAID...WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS THAT AT LEAST THE BULK OF
THE SUNCOAST SHOULD SEE A SHARP RECOVERY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND...LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WOULD BE MUCH WELCOMED BY MANY IN THE PARCHED WEST/CENTRAL
FLORIDA IN THE FORM OF MORE FREQUENT...AND LOCALLY
TORRENTIAL...RAINS. OF COURSE...THIS BEING FLORIDA THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING ESPECIALLY IF A SHEAR ZONE
PARKS ACROSS THE STATE PROVIDING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

AND...BEYOND THE 5 DAY PERIOD...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A RETURN TO
THE PATTERN WE'VE BEEN IN...WHICH IS A RE-FORMATION OF THE FAIRLY
DEEP (FOR JUNE) EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND MORE DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS IN FLORIDA.

THE ONLY THING "USUAL" ABOUT THIS PATTERN IS THE "UNUSUAL" - IN
OTHER WORDS...THE TRUE RAINY SEASON SETUP HAS STILL NOT ARRIVED.

STAY TUNED...

[SWFLA_CANE]

At this point in time I don't think anyone knows with any degree of certainty where it will go and how strong it will be. I am a novice but I've been watching storms for years and do know that they are affected by so many things that a mouse could fart the wrong way in the next couple of days and it could shift by a few hundred miles.

[wxmann_91]

Anyone see Larry Cosgrove's prediction this evening? He has it going pointing directly at Pensacola...If the mods will let me know if I can post a link to another BB, I will do so...otherwise, PM me for the link.

I think we can, anyway what he said is pretty much what I stated in my post a few pages back, except that he has it further west.

[Frank P]

At this point in time I don't think anyone knows with any degree of certainty where it will go and how strong it will be. I am a novice but I've been watching storms for years and do know that they are affected by so many things that a mouse could fart the wrong way in the next couple of days and it could shift by a few hundred miles.

true, but it would probably have to be a pretty big mouse....

[kranki]

Rain, yes! Surge and wind, no! My plants are just starting to revive after last years onslaught of storms. And dammit, it is too early in the season!

[Jim Cantore]

Scratch that last one

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HurricaneHunter914]

My fart would send it 1000 miles.

[SWFLA_CANE]

[gatorcane]

Scratch that last one

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

looks like Charley's weak brother.

[wxman57]

I'll be putting out my landfall prediction on Monday morning.

Unfortunately, my weekend has been cancelled. I'll be working 12-hr shifts tomorrow and Sunday because of this stupid disturbance. It's not as exciting when you lose your days off.

[Rainband]

I doubt we will see a cedar key landfall, but increased moisture is likely.

look at the x on the map you posted