96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

#261 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 9:00 am

416
NOUS42 KNHC 101400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 10 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-040

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 12/18OOZ NEAR 14N 56W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
RMH

Thunder44 · #262 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 9:08 am

If it could move under that developing upper-level ridge to the west it might have chance to develop into a TD tomorrow.

Extremeweatherguy · #263 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 9:32 am

Here is the 72 hr. surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Derek Ortt · #264 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 9:35 am

http://www.nwhhc.com/SAL

far too much very dry air near the system to allow for sustained convective activity

cheezyWXguy · #265 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 9:35 am

wow...it actually makes it a little bit stronger than now...its at 1012 mb now, and that surface forecast shows it at 1008, that maybe close to a depression there if that pans out

canegrl04 · #266 Postby **canegrl04** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 9:39 am

This wave deserves honorable mention for 2006 if it developes into a named storm 8-)

#267 Postby **mvtrucking** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 9:39 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Here is the 72 hr. surface forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

It shows the low continuing WNW and staying below 15N?

Hyperstorm mentioned in his analysis something about that needing to happen:

"Something that I noted yesterday and I find rather interesting is that the system needs to stay at a southern latitude (south of 15-16N) in order for it to remain under the favorable upper pattern if that high gains definition. However, if it stays too close to the moisture associated with the ITCZ, developmental process will be very slow. If it's going to develop any further, it has to do so just north of the ITCZ as it can use this monsoonal moisture for energy"

#268 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 9:50 am

I see outflow boundaries...not good for development...

Derek Ortt · #269 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 9:58 am

yep

due to the dry air forcing downdrafts, which leads to surface divergence

Thunder44 · #270 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 10:03 am

477
ABNT20 KNHC 101501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15
TO 20 MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED
MILES...PRIMARILY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SURFACE
PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THE AREA AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

$$

FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH

#271 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 10:07 am

I just looked at the latest sat pic - it's looks pretty bad lately and the NHC doesn't seem too gunhoe on it....

dry air (and soon shear) are working against it.

cheezyWXguy · #272 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 10:10 am

it may still have a chance to come back...remember yesterday at this time?

#273 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 10:22 am

cheezywxman wrote:it may still have a chance to come back...remember yesterday at this time?

Yup...it's crazy. The minute thunderstorm activity slows down, it's dead according to some. LOL....it's a wave!!!!

#274 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 10:31 am

And here's the SAL 2 days ago... even stronger! That's why it hasn't organized over time.
http://www.nwhhc.com/SAL/0707.html

Shear is probably the bigger inhibiting factor next two days.

Will be watching closely. If the shear drops, and the storm pops, it's right here!

#275 Postby **mvtrucking** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 11:28 am

In the 1545 sat image it looks as if the circulation(what's left of it) gets pulled apart towards the north? What would cause that?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

aOl · #276 Postby **aOl** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 11:37 am

what i want to know is, if it somehow makes it into the caribbean sea and develops, do the long term models take it on a dennis track or an emily track or one in between?

#277 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 11:55 am

mvtrucking wrote:In the 1545 sat image it looks as if the circulation(what's left of it) gets pulled apart towards the north? What would cause that?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

It looks as if it going NW to me

#278 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:08 pm

Still only a 20% chance of development in my view. Too much shear in the area.

But if it subsides, look out, we could have a dangerous hurricane...forget TD2 or Tropical Storm Beryl, more like major Hurricane Beryl...

cheezyWXguy · #279 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:17 pm

a'ight somethings messed up on this thread...every time i refresh the main page, the amount of replies goes down...at first it was at 281, now its at 277...maybe its just my comp

#280 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jul 10, 2006 12:28 pm

There is what seems to be a area of Low Level Turning about 11.4N 47.1W. It should get from under the mid-level clouds soon and show that it is pretty tight and really bare....

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... i7Y3Je.jpg

96L Invest,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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