INVEST 99L near Leewards,comments,sat pics,etc #4

[Dean4Storms]

I think we have TD#3, it sure did organize today and looks as if convection is closing in on wrapping the apparent LLC.

Careful with that satellite interpretation of convection "wrapping the apparent LLC". See the image below. The weak LLC is northwest of all convection. And take a look at that dashed yellow line. On the last image it LOOKS like we may be seeing the beginning of a large outflow boundary propagating NW across the LLC, an indication of collapsing convection southeast of the LLC. It's too early to be 100% sure of that, though. I'll have another image in 10 minutes. We'll see if there is a separation between the apparent boundary and the clouds to the southeast or not.

In this RAMSDIS Floater I see convection counterclockwise wrapping around the LLC before it goes dark. I've followed the tropics long enough and can easily discern it. Now its not deeply centered or anything, but it clearly has become more organized.

Slow the speed down a bit and I think you'll see what I'm seeing. Convection doesn't rotate on its own.


http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Thunder44]

Here's a new satellite image with the weak LLC indicated by the red "L". Note that there appears to be a separation developing along the western and northern edge of the convection, indicative of a possible outflow boundary developing. Such boundaries develop as the convection collapses - a sign of weakening. Still not 100% sure this is happening, but there IS greater separation between this boundary now. If it turns out to actually be a large outflow boundary, then we should see some significant structural changes in the next 6-12 hours. By that, I mean the LLC could dissipate as it did 2 nights ago when I noted the northward moving boundary through the MLC. Such a dissipation COULD be followed by the development of an LLC elsewhere, or it could be followed by degeneration to a wave with minimal convection. Only time will tell.

I've noticed that the convection on the west side of this storm is starting to diminish this evening, while the east side flares up.

[storms in NC]

This might be true. In day light hours you always seem to have more of a flare up and at night you will see it go away then the flare up again the next day till it has
organization to it.

[Crankin]

Why are you pro-mets and soon - to- be pro mets so bearish on this thing when it claerly has been getting better all day?
It seems that chances for development are much better than you have indicated.
Thanks for your input, though.

[wxman57]

In this RAMSDIS Floater I see convection counterclockwise wrapping around the LLC before it goes dark. I've followed the tropics long enough and can easily discern it. Now its not deeply centered or anything, but it clearly has become more organized.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

The weak LLC is northwest of that convection on the link above. It's not wrapping around.

[wxman57]

Why are you pro-mets and soon - to- be pro mets so bearish on this thing when it claerly has been getting better all day?
It seems that chances for development are much better than you have indicated.
Thanks for your input, though.

We're fighting a hoard of people I disagree with here.

[Dean4Storms]

In this RAMSDIS Floater I see convection counterclockwise wrapping around the LLC before it goes dark. I've followed the tropics long enough and can easily discern it. Now its not deeply centered or anything, but it clearly has become more organized.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

The weak LLC is northwest of that convection on the link above. It's not wrapping around.

We will see.

[curtadams]

Here's a new satellite image with the weak LLC indicated by the red "L". Note that there appears to be a separation developing along the western and northern edge of the convection, indicative of a possible outflow boundary developing. Such boundaries develop as the convection collapses - a sign of weakening. Still not 100% sure this is happening, but there IS greater separation between this boundary now. If it turns out to actually be a large outflow boundary, then we should see some significant structural changes in the next 6-12 hours. By that, I mean the LLC could dissipate as it did 2 nights ago when I noted the northward moving boundary through the MLC. Such a dissipation COULD be followed by the development of an LLC elsewhere, or it could be followed by degeneration to a wave with minimal convection. Only time will tell.

This system has been spewing outflow boundaries to the N and W all day with no problems. I think this is the third. It doesn't reflect a general collapse of convection but more likely a collapse of convection right at the boundary - perhaps due to an increase in shear. Also, the squall line (or whatever it was) didn't erase the LLC, it just hid it. There was still stuff going around on SW underneath the convection.

[Thunder44]

8:05pm TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1011 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 16.5N 58.5W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
THIS WEAK CIRCULATION IS AT THE SURFACE. ASSOCIATED SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA FROM
15N-17.5N BETWEEN 56W-58.5W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...ONLY
A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. REGARDLESS IF THAT
OCCURS...SHOWERS...TSTMS AND SPORADIC GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUE AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10-15 KT.

[destro34]

it is a td to me, i just checked some data on buoys and it is...i may be wrong , and iam going to get ready,just in case..by the way iam in the dominican republic......

recon flight will be there anytime soon. check this out:

for today :

00
NOUS42 KNHC 301545
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SUN 30 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z JUL TO 01/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-061

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN ATLANTIC)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/1800Z A. 01/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 31/1600Z C. 01/0430Z
D. 15.0N 058.5W D. 16.0N 061.0W
E. 31/1700Z TO 01/0100Z E. 01/0500Z TO 01/1300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HOURLIES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
CDL


for tomorrow :


000
NOUS42 KNHC 311500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 31 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-062

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 01/1800Z A. 02/0000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. NOAA9 02DDA SURV
C. 01/1700Z C. 01/1730Z
D. 18.0N 62.5W D. NA
E. 01/1730Z TO 01/2330Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 02/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0303A CYCLONE
C. 02/0500Z
D. 19.0N 64.5W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 6-HRLYS IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

3. REMARKS: MISSIONS PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THIS SYSTEM WERE
CANCELED BY NHC AT 31/1200Z.


4. SUSPECT AREA (OFF CAROLINA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 01/2100Z A. 02/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 02/1715Z C. 02/0800Z
D. 33.0N 70.0W D. 32.0N 69.0W
E. 01/2030Z TO 02/0000Z E. 02/1130Z TO 1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

5. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPES AND IS A THREAT


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
RJD


so those boys at the usaf reserve will have a busy day ahead. i can tell. used to serve there for 6 years, and wuold do it if my country requiered me to. god bless america !!

[storms in NC]

It is slowing down now 10-15

[MGC]

Until a west wind is reported at the surface by either recon, a ship or a island observation, we can only conclude that there is not a closed surface low. Sure, there is a circulation but the strongest of it appears above the surface. I base this on observing the low level cloud motion in the last visible frames of the visible loop. Convection is absent in all but the NE quads. I don't see the NHC upgrading this to a depression tonight unless of course there is an explosion of convection near the circulation center. I've seen many systems that have great satellite presentations but lack a surface circulation. I must admit that yesterday at this time I was on the verge of writing off this disturbance, just goes to show that trying to figure out tropical weather is more than challenging.....MGC

[SWFLA_CANE]

The update says that conditions are only marinally favorable for development, what are the conditions down the road once it passes the islands?

[Derek Ortt]

That recon was cancelled

[Air Force Met]

In this RAMSDIS Floater I see convection counterclockwise wrapping around the LLC before it goes dark. I've followed the tropics long enough and can easily discern it. Now its not deeply centered or anything, but it clearly has become more organized.

Slow the speed down a bit and I think you'll see what I'm seeing. Convection doesn't rotate on its own.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/Rmsd ... PICAL.html

I think what you have here is actually some high cirrus moving over the LLC. Because of the buoy obs, we know it is north of 16 and west of 58, so any curvature is not part of the LLC. ON the high res vis, one of the last images of daylight, you can see the lower clouds beneath the arc clouds that are at down near 13N and approaching 60W. I think this is cirrus blowoff and looking at the latest IR, the convection is not wrapped around the center...it looks as if it is currently on the easern half.

There is a satellite tip we use called the "S" curve tip. You can locate the center of a low on satellite by finding the center of the curve in the "S" pattern on an image.

It shows up kinda nice right now and is right about where it should be based on the last know vis pic and buoy obs.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Any chance that the LLC could reform under the deeper convection.

[Dean4Storms]

wxman57, I'm not -removed- anything and I hope your not going to go to name calling because some may disagree with you. I do note that since that last daylight loop the convection that appeared to loop the LLC did disapate and is no longer there and the center does appear now to be just NW of all the convection. But, as I pointed out it did have convection wrapping around it earlier. If this reinstitutes then I think you'll agree we have a likely TD at hand.

[greels]

We in the islands, for sure, will be watching this.....TWC just made mention of us (Turks and Caicos) on their Tropical Update for the days to come...

[NDG]

Here's a new satellite image with the weak LLC indicated by the red "L". Note that there appears to be a separation developing along the western and northern edge of the convection, indicative of a possible outflow boundary developing. Such boundaries develop as the convection collapses - a sign of weakening. Still not 100% sure this is happening, but there IS greater separation between this boundary now. If it turns out to actually be a large outflow boundary, then we should see some significant structural changes in the next 6-12 hours. By that, I mean the LLC could dissipate as it did 2 nights ago when I noted the northward moving boundary through the MLC. Such a dissipation COULD be followed by the development of an LLC elsewhere, or it could be followed by degeneration to a wave with minimal convection. Only time will tell.

I believe what you think it's an outflow to the SW of the LLC is the upper level winds driving the tops of the convection SW.

[destro34]

the president was at nhc..great news may be they will get nhc more money...