Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

[ConvergenceZone]

no I am not 24hours behind on satelite imagery?why do you think that??

I think what he meant by that Will is that 97 looks alot worse today than it did last night.

[skysummit]

no I am not 24hours behind on satelite imagery?why do you think that??

Because yesterday it was looking great and last night was almost looking like a tropical storm, however you said it didn't look so hot.....and today it doesn't look so hot, but you're saying it's looking better.

[willjnewton]

well can someone show me a nice colorfull Infrared satelite imagery that was UPDATED then??

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I see a LLC in which looks very well organized...Convection is trying to cover it again to. We will see what recon finds or if its at the surface?

[wxman57]

well can someone show me a nice colorfull Infrared satelite imagery that was UPDATED then??

Here you go, will. The weak low-level swirl is indicated by the yellow arrow:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby18.jpg

[NONAME]

Will dont you know of any sites to get them yourself. J/W

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Ernesto will be knocking on somebody's door come next weekend. Sept 1st he could be on the verge of making landfall on the LA/TX border, or maybe crossing FL from one side or another. It will all depend on the position of that high. The models are disagreeing on whether the high will persist across Florida or whether it retrogrades way back to the east. I will be looking forward to the model runs come Monday when the synoptics will be hopefully more clear!

My gf flies out to CO on Wednesday afternoon. I hope she isn't stuck here because of a storm. She's so looking forward to a big family reunion and her grammy's 80th birthday. As long as she can fly out, I'll hold down the fort!

[NONAME]

Here Will you can get updates every 30 minutes on this site with lots of diffrent types of images. It has Dvorak numbers on the page just go down to Atlantic Ocean and Click on Imagery you should find the stuff good then.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[wxman57]

Ernesto will be knocking on somebody's door come next weekend. Sept 1st he could be on the verge of making landfall on the LA/TX border, or maybe crossing FL from one side or another. It will all depend on the position of that high. The models are disagreeing on whether the high will persist across Florida or whether it retrogrades way back to the east. I will be looking forward to the model runs come Monday when the synoptics will be hopefully more clear!

My gf flies out to CO on Wednesday afternoon. I hope she isn't stuck here because of a storm. She's so looking forward to a big family reunion and her grammy's 80th birthday. As long as she can fly out, I'll hold down the fort!

If it develops, then it'll be in the southern Gulf by Tuesday morning and making landfall by Thursday, probably Mexico to Texas. All models show a ridge (high pressure) over Florida next Tue-Fri. That means no storm for you!

[jasons2k]

I just dunno if it'll do much until it reaches the W. Carib. It seems to have a mind of its own. And if that 'swirl' getting kicked-out is the LLC then ir just might be pulling a Chris, unless it can get some convection in a hurry. It's just hauling west too fast IMO right now.

[jhamps10]

Look at what recon is finding, ps Plane is desending to storm flight altitude,

1607 1324N 06231W 03012 0179 069 032 088 020 036 03196 0000000000
1607. 1322N 06230W 02493 0148 062 036 126 048 036 02643 0000000000
1608 1319N 06230W 01986 0117 055 034 156 104 035 02104 0000000000
1608. 1316N 06231W 01580 0091 053 031 170 148 031 01691 0000000000
1609 1314N 06232W 01067 0051 052 031 196 180 032 01144 0000000000

[skysummit]

Is that increasing winds with decreasing altitude? Can't be.

[ConvergenceZone]

Look at what recon is finding, ps Plane is desending to storm flight altitude,

1607 1324N 06231W 03012 0179 069 032 088 020 036 03196 0000000000
1607. 1322N 06230W 02493 0148 062 036 126 048 036 02643 0000000000
1608 1319N 06230W 01986 0117 055 034 156 104 035 02104 0000000000
1608. 1316N 06231W 01580 0091 053 031 170 148 031 01691 0000000000
1609 1314N 06232W 01067 0051 052 031 196 180 032 01144 0000000000

I don't know how to read that, looks like just a bunch of numbers to me..

[sealbach]

ditto CZ

[Derek Ortt]

to say that soemthing moving this quickly cannot develop is a myth

if there were not westerly winds aloft, conditions would be just fine

[AJC3]

Ernesto will be knocking on somebody's door come next weekend. Sept 1st he could be on the verge of making landfall on the LA/TX border, or maybe crossing FL from one side or another. It will all depend on the position of that high. The models are disagreeing on whether the high will persist across Florida or whether it retrogrades way back to the east. I will be looking forward to the model runs come Monday when the synoptics will be hopefully more clear!

My gf flies out to CO on Wednesday afternoon. I hope she isn't stuck here because of a storm. She's so looking forward to a big family reunion and her grammy's 80th birthday. As long as she can fly out, I'll hold down the fort!

If it develops, then it'll be in the southern Gulf by Tuesday morning and making landfall by Thursday, probably Mexico to Texas. All models show a ridge (high pressure) over Florida next Tue-Fri. That means no storm for you!

And that's a pretty big if. Conditions won't be very favorable in the eastern Caribbean, and a pretty potent upper low is forecast to form and drop SW into the western Caribbean by 48 hours, before turning westward. 97L needs to slow it's forward speed "if it knows what's good for it" or it'll run right into some serious southerly shear.

[jasons2k]

To be technical, yes it is relative

[beachbum_al]

Look at what recon is finding, ps Plane is desending to storm flight altitude,

1607 1324N 06231W 03012 0179 069 032 088 020 036 03196 0000000000
1607. 1322N 06230W 02493 0148 062 036 126 048 036 02643 0000000000
1608 1319N 06230W 01986 0117 055 034 156 104 035 02104 0000000000
1608. 1316N 06231W 01580 0091 053 031 170 148 031 01691 0000000000
1609 1314N 06232W 01067 0051 052 031 196 180 032 01144 0000000000

What does this mean? It is strengthening becoming better organized or the opposite?

[jhamps10]

ok for those who don't understand, I will just give the important things:

1607- Time 1324N 06231W-Latitude/Logitude 03012 0179 069 032 088 020 036-Wind speed in knots 03196 0000000000

I don't know the rest, sorry.

[gatorcane]

To be technical, yes it is relative

Looks like the new orleans MET that said there was alot of shear ahead of it and wasn't worried about it could be right folks...

remember all of the arguing about this last night