TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

[cpdaman]

I'd have to agree, however, is it just me or is Ernesto looking a little bit more raggedy this evening than a few hours ago?

k e v i n . c h o
naples, fl[/quote]

the infared representation appears more circular but less of a solid CDO

[jwayne]

The WRF-ARW still shows a 968mb hurricane heading for the Western Gulf. Not saying that this will come true, just that's it's interesting. The WRF-ARW demonstrated considerable skill last year and will eventually replace the GFDL.

nice find. you are obviously getting some pro mets attention with that model.

[Portastorm]

The WRF-ARW still shows a 968mb hurricane heading for the Western Gulf. Not saying that this will come true, just that's it's interesting. The WRF-ARW demonstrated considerable skill last year and will eventually replace the GFDL.

Has anyone seen any previous runs of this model and how it is doing in the short term, if such a thing can be measured?

[TampaFl]

The WRF-ARW still shows a 968mb hurricane heading for the Western Gulf. Not saying that this will come true, just that's it's interesting. The WRF-ARW demonstrated considerable skill last year and will eventually replace the GFDL.

That run was initalized @ 1200UTC (8:00AM) this morning. It is now almost 12 hours old. When will the next run be?


Robert

[Noles2006]

I find it funny... that after all of the bickering and discussion... that we're still in the same situation we were in yesterday... it's either going to find the weakness or it isn't. We're really not going to know until it makes it's move, IMO... [or until we have a full model consensus].

[Typhoon]

The WRF-ARW still shows a 968mb hurricane heading for the Western Gulf. Not saying that this will come true, just that's it's interesting. The WRF-ARW demonstrated considerable skill last year and will eventually replace the GFDL.

That run was initalized @ 1200UTC (8:00AM) this morning. It is now almost 12 hours old. When will the next run be?


Robert

The next run will be at 00z. However, the WRF website doesn't update very promptly, so you may not see the 00z run until it's almost time for the 06z runs to come in.

[canegrl04]

Ernesto is going to hit anywhere from NOLA to Alabama .My local met mentioned the fact that Ernesto will take water from Lake Poncetrane and dump it on New Orleans if curves east of the city

[PTrackerLA]

Quick note...looks over the last hour or so the westward movement is picking up again after the jog to the north...based on the last 6 or 7 images from GOES...

MW

I thought I saw that too, but thought I'd let somebody else get grilled for mentioning it.

I mentioned it a little while ago as well. Looks to be making a bee-line for Jamaica.

[southerngale]

are you on record as sounding the all clear for SE Texas?

I'm not qualified to sound the all clear for anywhere. But I definitely feel better than I did yesterday. Apparently, the models see the ridge breaking down, so Ernesto shouldn't track wnw this way. Of course that remains to be seen, but that's the general model consensus, and who am I to argue with that?

[cycloneye]

371
WHXX04 KWBC 262331
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 05L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 26

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.5 71.4 295./11.1
6 16.4 71.8 337./ 9.6
12 17.1 72.8 306./11.7
18 17.8 73.8 304./12.3
24 18.3 74.6 305./ 8.7
30 19.5 74.9 344./12.3
36 20.5 76.3 305./16.5
42 21.1 77.8 292./14.8
48 21.4 79.1 284./12.5
54 21.4 80.0 271./ 9.1
60 21.8 80.8 296./ 7.8
66 22.4 82.2 293./14.0
72 22.8 83.3 289./11.5
78 22.8 84.2 272./ 8.6
84 23.0 84.9 282./ 6.4
90 23.8 85.7 319./10.7
96 24.4 86.3 311./ 8.6
102 24.8 87.0 302./ 6.7
108 25.3 87.4 315./ 6.3
114 25.8 87.8 331./ 6.5
120 26.4 87.9 342./ 6.1
126 26.9 87.9 6./ 4.5


18z GFDL.

[Noles2006]

Ernesto is going to hit anywhere from NOLA to Alabama .My local met mentioned the fact that Ernesto will take water from Lake Poncetrane and dump it on New Orleans if curves east

Too early to narrow it down that close yet. We're still where we were yesterday... Texas to Florida.

[Stormcenter]

Ernesto is going to hit anywhere from NOLA to Alabama .My local met mentioned the fact that Ernesto will take water from Lake Poncetrane and dump it on New Orleans if curves east of the city

Take water, Huh?

[Typhoon]

The WRF-ARW still shows a 968mb hurricane heading for the Western Gulf. Not saying that this will come true, just that's it's interesting. The WRF-ARW demonstrated considerable skill last year and will eventually replace the GFDL.

Has anyone seen any previous runs of this model and how it is doing in the short term, if such a thing can be measured?

The WRF-ARW seems to picking up on the slightly more northward movement towards Cuba, so I'd say it's doing well in the short-term. If by "previous runs" you mean previous tropical storms/hurricanes, the ARW hurricane model was the best model in 2005, as it produced the best intensity forecasts beyond 48h and the best track forecasts beyond 72h. However, the ARW was only used during Katrina, Maria, Ophelia, Rita, and Wilma, so it needs more testing before we can say for sure whether it's good.

[gopherfan21]

Actually its not really a matter of if Ernesto finds the weakness....now its more or less a situation of when Ernesto will reach it, where the weakness will be, and how big of a weakness it will be.

[Ivanhater]

Holy crap..so now Pensacola is right int he middle!

[Furious George]

Wow, the GFDL run is really slowing down at the end. 4.5 knots due north.

[Noles2006]

Wow, the GFDL run is really slowing down at the end. 4.5 knots due north.

Actually, just east of north [6 degrees].

[jwayne]

Wow, the GFDL run is really slowing down at the end. 4.5 knots due north.

didn't it shift back west quite a bit also?

[SkeetoBite]

371
WHXX04 KWBC 262331
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 05L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 26...



18z GFDL.

This run places the GFDL well left of last run. If I remember correctly, I think the GFDL had a left bias almost all of last year. I'm sure Derek can confirm...

[LaBreeze]

cmdebbie, when you mentioned that it was "anybody's ballgame", did you mean anybody in the northcentral to eastern GOM right? Certainly not here in the northwest and west GOM?