Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[artist]

if you are quoting from another source, such as the NHC, or where ever, could you guys, PLEASE post a link to the original? Thanks - plus I do believe that is the rules here as well.

[SouthFloridawx]

This storm is just really odd looking. I have never seen a Hurricane that looked so odd!

have you seen a storm with 3 outflow channel's and upper high pressure?

[Sanibel]

One thing you don't want to see is a tight-core small hurricane enter the Florida Straits at this time of year.

(Think Labor Day storm 1935)

[Innotech]

Ill explain what concerns me. The ridge is not holding fast. It is moving west, at a fiarly rapid rate. It seems as thought the ridge will outrun the storm, which is being held up offshore Haiti. If this happens, what is there preventing it from simply continuing more northward, especially since it is both moving slowly and strengthening rapidly, into the weakness behind that ridge (if it misses it).
At this point it looks like the hurricane is on the very tip of the moving ridge, and not travelling the same speed. This could easily shove it a bit to the east, then in a northerly direction, possibly impacting the EASTERN coast of florida instead.

[Ivan14]

This storm is just really odd looking. I have never seen a Hurricane that looked so odd!

have you seen a storm with 3 outflow channel's and upper high pressure?

Nope, I have only been tracking canes for 2 years. Ernie just has an odd shape to him. I wonder when he will take on the classic cane look?

[jusforsean]

Interesting makes sense i think? If only we had a crystal ball. It appears that it is going to keep going straight up not a good scenerio for south florida! Curious to see how that will play out!

[jasons2k]

HOLY SMOKES!! I really can't believe I woke up to this! Friday, I told my family in Tampa they have nothing to worry about with Ernesto. Even late last night I expected things to swing west (didn't believe the GFS). All I can say is WOW and I'll take my crow bloody & raw - I deserve it that way.

[cheezyWXguy]

This storm is just really odd looking. I have never seen a Hurricane that looked so odd!

have you seen a storm with 3 outflow channel's and upper high pressure?

Nope, I have only been tracking canes for 2 years. Ernie just has an odd shape to him. I wonder when he will take on the classic cane look?

If i remeber right, I think Dennis looked the same where Ernesto is right now...its not too surprising

[SouthFloridawx]

This storm is just really odd looking. I have never seen a Hurricane that looked so odd!

have you seen a storm with 3 outflow channel's and upper high pressure?

Nope, I have only been tracking canes for 2 years. Ernie just has an odd shape to him. I wonder when he will take on the classic cane look?

I have a feeling we'll se a more classic looking storm later in the day.
Ernie still having huge bursts of convection right over the center.


Dvorak esitmates show the center right under that huge burst.

[rnbaida]

can you please give me a link to that?

This storm is just really odd looking. I have never seen a Hurricane that looked so odd!

have you seen a storm with 3 outflow channel's and upper high pressure?

Nope, I have only been tracking canes for 2 years. Ernie just has an odd shape to him. I wonder when he will take on the classic cane look?

I have a feeling we'll se a more classic looking storm later in the day.
Ernie still having huge bursts of convection right over the center.


Dvorak esitmates show the center right under that huge burst.

[Innotech]

something told me the ridge they forecasted just didnt look very powerful, so I was definitely thinking of a more eastward hit a while back, but I didnt think it would impact the peninsula. It seems now like it could very possiby impact the eastern side of Florida first!

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow, look at the solid red circle over Ernesto's center, I doubt he's weakining right now, but I might be wrong.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[rainstorm]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/trop_lant4col.gif

is it deepening rapidly? i think i see alot of dry air due to that ull scouring out all the moisture to its west

[Extremeweatherguy]

HOLY SMOKES!! I really can't believe I woke up to this! Friday, I told my family in Tampa they have nothing to worry about with Ernesto. Even late last night I expected things to swing west (didn't believe the GFS). All I can say is WOW and I'll take my crow bloody & raw - I deserve it that way.

I agree. I guess I know not to listen to completely trust the mets when they tell us to discount the GFS anymore. This is a complete shock. I just hope my family in Orlando will be safe too..

The best case now would be if this just lifted north into Haiti and died or may be went out to sea. Looking at the latest Sat. pics, that type of scenario would now not surprise me at all.

[El Nino]

An eye is forming in this burst of convection, very small, but quite clear.

CNN en espanol still showing Ernesto when it was South of PR ... Really incredible !

[Innotech]

hes not weakening, I guarantee hes restructuring.
anyway, those who want a more classic looking cane just wait till late tonight. coupled with diurnal convection and slow movement, the storm is going to pass the mountains of Hispaniola and vasty improve outflow to the east as it passes by Cuba. Im htinking it will shed some of that convection to the east and then it can really intensify with all four quadrants open to outflow.

[cinlfla]

something told me the ridge they forecasted just didnt look very powerful, so I was definitely thinking of a more eastward hit a while back, but I didnt think it would impact the peninsula. It seems now like it could very possiby impact the eastern side of Florida first!

I am watching this thing gain Latitude. I'm concerned about most of the Peninsula. I thought that by it going over Hispaniola that it would loose its punch, is this still a possibility? I'm not familiar with the Geographic's of Haiti and eastern Cuba.

[conestogo_flood]

Those poor Haitians, our church has missionaries stationed all around Haiti. We'll probably hear news about them sometime this week, or next Sunday. Haiti can't even hold a tropical depression, let alone a hurricane. I'll be thinking of everyone there today. It does make me feel bad, my parents were even stationed in Port-Au-Prince for half a year in 2003.

[HurricaneJim]

Navy WAM (Wave Action Model) putting Ernesto through the Cuba/Haiti slot and running up the east side like a buzz saw. This model has been spot on the last few years.

http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

[Sanibel]

Some notes:

The frantic spin seen on visible tells me this isn't weakening. The storm has pulled in because of northern inflow limitations from the Haitian mountains. It has a very tight windfield. Winds near Jamaica are only 6mph.

The current wobble NW is probably a landfall interaction wobble to keep itself from crashing into Haiti. I would not be surprised to see another radical track change and movement NNW into the clear Windward Passage between Cuba and Haiti. If not, then maybe the ridge has finally taken hold. I doubt it though, because if the ridge were grabbing the storm would be picking up in forward progress (which it isn't).

This small core and tight-eye tendency Ernesto is showing is NOT good news if it tracks clear and untouched into the Florida Straits.

Today will tell us a lot.