Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[JonathanBelles]

what would it take to bring the track west again?

The local mets in Orlando are talking about the high pressure off the east coast of FL may induce a more western track, since it has not backed off fully yet. They are also talking of a Charley like track again, with less intensity.

thats what they were saying here and i was curious why it move east.

[Evil Jeremy]

well, im remembering the moment 5 days ago when i told the forum that this would be a problem for SFL, and some people ignored me.

[jlauderdal]

well, im remembering the moment 5 days ago when i told the forum that this would be a problem for SFL, and some people ignored me.

they still will if you dont back it up with at least a hint of science. anyway at this rate this thing will never touch the united states which is fine.

[marcane_1973]

The NHC must be on something good because there is no way this ting has a chance to be a CAT 2 or 3 if it even hits south Florida.

[TexasSam]

well, im remembering the moment 5 days ago when i told the forum that this would be a problem for SFL, and some people ignored me.

You might win that "poker hand", but I look for another card or two to play yet.

[DelrayMorris]

well, im remembering the moment 5 days ago when i told the forum that this would be a problem for SFL, and some people ignored me.

Is that necessary? No one is right 100% of the time and 5 days ago, I wouldn't have believed it was coming here either, given the preponderance of the evidence. You turned out to be right, but I'm sure no one "ignored" you "just because". The evidence (and model guidance) just wasn't there to indicate it was coming here. With every storm that forms, I can say "It's coming here!!!" and I'll be right sometimes and other times I will look like an idiot (not saying that's what you are doing. Just saying there's no need to get upset by it.)

{BLEEP}ing storm. I just got my roof fixed! Maybe Cuba will destroy it after all. Go, CUBA!!! (Man, I'm feeling like I'm rooting for a football team now).

[bostonseminole]

The NHC must be on something good because there is no way this ting has a chance to be a CAT 2 or 3 if it even hits south Florida.

yeah, I know, the latest VDM is not very impressive

[Bgator]

Well, remember can they go over cuba some of the convection is over cuba...

[Derek Ortt]

the chances of a cat 2 are small, the storm is being sheared somewhat based upon the cloud motions west of the storm.

I am not sure why the UL to the north is not being noticed as it is dropping to the south, and is now very near the storm. If this continues, conditons wont favor intensification once it emerges off of Cuba

[Normandy]

I know i might be crazy....but is Ernesto hitting Cuba right now?

Check out the Cuba radar.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The NHC must be on something good because there is no way this ting has a chance to be a CAT 2 or 3 if it even hits south Florida.

YOu better hold your breath

[brunota2003]

here it comes...the real scary ride is about to begin, if it hasnt begun already...now...as for Ernesto, be a good boy as I go to school...I dont want any major surprises when I get home from school. (though him dieing or me getting out of the 5 day cone would be nice...currently NHC forecasting a 70-75 knots hurricane coming directly over my house...)

[DESTRUCTION5]

JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

Excuse me while i crap a brick..

[wxwonder12]

Destruction, I just turned on the computer and am lmao at your crap a brick statement. Thank you for that when this is not really funny at all.

[Normandy]

I have a few concerns about the NHC forecast....especially the call for strengthening....

Im noticing something rather unusual with Ernesto....its as close to a ULL that I have EVER seen a cyclone be....and yet the NHC is forecasting ZERO shear? I don't quite understand.

Really to me it looks like Ernesto is being pulled into the low (likely not hapening but looks that way).

[Derek Ortt]

the models have not really had that UL at all, that is what is casuing the problem. Models are saying no shera, because it does not see the UL very well

[DESTRUCTION5]

I have a few concerns about the NHC forecast....especially the call for strengthening....

Im noticing something rather unusual with Ernesto....its as close to a ULL that I have EVER seen a cyclone be....and yet the NHC is forecasting ZERO shear? I don't quite understand.

Really to me it looks like Ernesto is being pulled into the low (likely not hapening but looks that way).

Ortt Mentioned this but i cant imagine NHC not factoring this in..

[Deenac813]

JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.

Excuse me while i crap a brick..

What really scares me about this statement, it was made by Stewart.. he is my favorite and I trust him the most. I did not expect to wake up this morning and think a storm could be here in 48 hours.

[Normandy]

the models have not really had that UL at all, that is what is casuing the problem. Models are saying no shera, because it does not see the UL very well

I understand but im sure the NHC does see it, yet they continue to forecast zero shear.

[HollynLA]

Not to downplay any danger to Florida, as we all know even a TS can cause problems, but this storm looks pretty bad right now and is about to cross Cuba which will continue to weaken it. Does Ernie still have time to strengthen into a cat 2 before hitting south FL??