Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

#261 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:13 pm

Well, the good thing about it is it won't be over water much either. It'll have a chance at regenerating itself once over water, but once that front picks it up and sweeps it toward the east coast, it'll be moving too quickly to have enough time to turn into something signifigant.

chris_fit · #262 Postby **chris_fit** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:13 pm

IMO, the NHC is right on with the center, it is still in the middle of Cuba... check out this image....

Notice the arrows, thats the direction the low clouds are moving, you can see for yourself by loading this loop..... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

chrisnnavarre · #263 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:14 pm

storms in NC wrote:I am afaid that it will not be over land much longer. It is already trying to get itself together here. the winds are picking up now.

Boy, it you can feel the winds up in N.C. already it must really be getting itself together.

:roll:

O.K. that's a little unfair... Where are you anyway??? :?:

Zadok · #264 Postby **Zadok** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:14 pm

If anything I think the center is reforming to the south.

Bocadude85 · #265 Postby **Bocadude85** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:15 pm

Mandatory evacuations for all mobile homes and barrier islands in Broward county

cpdaman · #266 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:15 pm

it is a close call here u can see the roation on the north central coast of cuba just north west of hulguin

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/s ... an&type=ir

although some of this flare up could be due to the ULL seen to be NEARLY OVER THE CENTER of ernesto http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/w ... an&type=wv

cpdaman · #267 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:16 pm

ZADOK there is no rotation on the SOUTH SIDE convection does not equal=new center rotation does u need VISBLE imagery

#268 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:18 pm

chrisnnavarre wrote:
storms in NC wrote:I am afaid that it will not be over land much longer. It is already trying to get itself together here. the winds are picking up now.

Boy, it you can feel the winds up in N.C. already it must really be getting itself together.

O.K. that's a little unfair... Where are you anyway???

That was uncalled for...storms said winds are picking up in the STORM not NC...

Zardoz · #269 Postby **Zardoz** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:19 pm

I see the center right over the eastern tip of Cuba in this imagery, too:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

It appears that the storm has avoided the mountainous part of the island, has maintained its organization well, is in fact growing, and will move north from Cuba with blood in its eye.

Does this SOB now have the potential to turn into something very dangerous?

#270 Postby **CronkPSU** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:22 pm

Zardoz wrote:I see the center right over the eastern tip of Cuba in this imagery, too:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

It appears that the storm has avoided the mountainous part of the island, has maintained its organization well, is in fact growing, and will move north from Cuba with blood in its eye.

Does this SOB now have the potential to turn into something very dangerous?

certainly has the potential but it has had potential at a couple of points and hasn't really....hopefully the third time is not the charm for him

Sanibel · #271 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:24 pm

We could have a possible center relocation happening closer to the coast.

The low level swirl is distorted. It could be grabbing closer to water as if shifts itself towards favorable waters.

Track looks right parallel to the coast but inching out towards water.

Zardoz: The center is moving NW and is nowhere near where you are putting it. I think it is definitely picking up forward speed.

cpdaman · #272 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:26 pm

PRO METS tell me im crazy but it looks like the LLC is over centeral cuba about 15 miles from coast moving more westerly imo 290-300 degrees WNW and the ULL just to its north is very close by moving westerly and this thing appears it will not do much of anything for a while

Trugunzn · #273 Postby **Trugunzn** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:28 pm

Wow i just got back and its already making landfall in cuba?

Thatsmrhurricane · #274 Postby **Thatsmrhurricane** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:31 pm

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

Somebody just lie to me and say this is not happening.

#275 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:31 pm

Trugunzn wrote:Wow i just got back and its already making landfall in cuba?

You meant starting to move offshore the north Cuban coast right?

#276 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:32 pm

i cant belive its moving away from Cuba so fast! poop.

westmoon · #277 Postby **westmoon** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:33 pm

Have there been any first hand reports out of Cuba yet?

Zardoz · #278 Postby **Zardoz** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:33 pm

Sanibel wrote:Zardoz: The center is moving NW and is nowhere near where you are putting it. I think it is definitely picking up forward speed.

Okay, I guess I'm mis-reading it. Is the center actually to the SW of the tip of the island in that sequence?

Damar91 · #279 Postby **Damar91** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:33 pm

Thatsmrhurricane wrote:http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/avntc2.cgi?time=2006082812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Somebody just lie to me and say this is not happening.

If you are referring to the TWO SYSTEMS out there, yeah real nice, huh? It looks like the party has started!

BensonTCwatcher · #280 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 2:34 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:i cant belive its moving away from Cuba so fast! poop.

Yep a little brown mountian of it.

Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread 4

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