TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[O Town]

This is where Dvorak puts the estimated center as of now. We will have to wait till the 11 advisory and see where they put it.

Look at the bottom of the picture - positioning method is FORECAST INTERPOLATION - ie, they're just picking the spot on the NHC track for that time. Dvorak (or any upper air IR analysis) is basically useless for center determination in a weak TS.

I was just putting out there since its easier to see on top of the storm what the NHC is saying than the other graphs. Thanks for the info.

[fci]

anxiously awaiting the 11:00am advisory........

Still 45 mph and 1005 mb.

[Canelaw99]

He slowed down to 13 as of the 11am advisory....still on track for the southern tip of the peninsula...peachy

[Brent]

[TampaFl]

At this latitude, I would think there is not much attention paid to the BAM models. The GFS, GFDL, UKMET and NOGAPS are tighly clustered and still in good agreement.

I agree, but he GFDL,GFS,UKMET, & NOGAPS are all now west of the 5:00AM NHC track.

[carve]

Is the movement nw or wnw?

[fci]

Is the movement nw or wnw?

Last 6-12 hours NW.

[wzrgirl1]

can someone answer a question for me please.....when going to get bags for sandbags, lowe's sold me plastic bags and not burlap.....what is the purpose of these bags if they don't absorb water....I am trying to prevent water from coming into my sliding glass doors......please help!!

[frederic79]

My eyes may be playing tricks on me, but take a look at the long range dopplar loop out of Key West. It really looks to me like the elongated center is still halfway over land (Cuba) and almost due south of Marathon. If so, this is a HUGE deviation from the forecast track, at least in the near term.

[TampaFl]

11:00AM postion.

[feederband]

My eyes may be playing tricks on me, but take a look at the long range dopplar loop out of Key West. It really looks to me like the elongated center is still halfway over land (Cuba) and almost due south of Marathon. If so, this is a HUGE deviation from the forecast track, at least in the near term.

My eyes have been trying to do that also...

[westmoon]

carve,

Is the movement nw or wnw?

NW for now anyway

[Canelaw99]

FWIW, from the 5am to the 11am positions: .7N and .6W

5am: 22.6 N 78.9W
11am: 23.3N 79.5W

Seems to be on a more NWerly trek now than he was over Cuba, but maybe it's just me....

[gtalum]

That map indicates that Ernesto bought a bunch of Cuban cigars and is heading straight to Miami Beach to sell them.

[Canelaw99]

LOL

As for the track posts - I have to admit that within the 24 hrs. of a storms' forecast, the NHC usually has an excellent handle on things. I mean, strange things can happen, but they're usually spot on that close to a landfall.

[jpigott]

11:00AM postion.

TampaFL - your graphic doesn't seem to match up with Wundergrounds graphic

[Patrick99]

Yeah, I'll just trust wherever the NHC says it is. With these weak systems, I really have no clue where the main LLC is, just a general idea.

[O Town]

Link to wundergrounds jpigott?

[bayoubebe]

So, it's moved west instead of East?

Does this mean the west coast of Florida will get it more than the East coast?

Is there a chance this could get back in the gulf and strengthen?

Floridians, what's it like there now? Are your winds picking up, etc?

[shawn67]

11:00AM postion.

Is that an official graphic?