TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[boca]

I mentioned the Gulf and got jumped on like yeah right. If it travels 1 mile off the SW coast of Florida thats the Gulf.

[ColdWaterConch]

Well when you visit the Keys they call one side the gulf side and the other the Atlantic side.

When you live in the Keys, they call one side the bay side and the other the Atlantic or ocean side.

Unless you are in Key West, in which case you say the gulf side, and not the bay side.

The water on the western/northern side of the keys is the Florida Bay, not the GOM.

[Recurve]

Well when you visit the Keys they call one side the gulf side and the other the Atlantic side.

In the Upper Keys we don't call it the Gulfside -- here, it's "bayside," as in Florida Bay. The other side we call "oceanside"BTW.
We are definitely not on the Gulf, but since the bay is just the water between the mainland and the upper keys, it's admitedly a fine distinction.


(edit- fixed typo)

[HurricaneJim]

It doesn't seem to making a curve to the north. Is there the chance for a skip over into the "real" GoM? That could change things a bit.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[Toadstool]

NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

NAM still has it going east of FL, or just not updated?

[THead]

Wow...maybe I'm looking at the wrong thing. But 24N & 80W looks like a convection hole, but not the eye. I'm seeing what appears to be a more central looking rotation a bit further south and west of that...maybe 23.8N & 80.5W.

That's what I'm thinking is the center...

If you look at the Navy site, the title of the image is 20060829.1915.goes12.x.vis1km_high.05LERNESTO.40kts-1006mb-239N-800W.99pc.jpg , fwiw

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/05L.ERNESTO/vis/geo/1km_zoom/full/Latest.html

[shawn67]

Well when you visit the Keys they call one side the gulf side and the other the Atlantic side.

Well if you consider crossing the Upper Keys and landfalling on the peninsula around the Dade/Monroe line to be entering the eastern Gulf, then I can agree with you.

I don't know what radar you are watching but right now the center is jogging almost due west towards Marathon.

[HurricaneJim]

I think it just hasn't been updated. Then again, this storm has been a step ahead of everyone from the git go.

Weather....

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[Stormcenter]

Well when you visit the Keys they call one side the gulf side and the other the Atlantic side.

Well if you consider crossing the Upper Keys and landfalling on the peninsula around the Dade/Monroe line to be entering the eastern Gulf, then I can agree with you.

I don't know what radar you are watching but right now the center is jogging almost due east towards Marathon.

East?

[Aquawind]

Getting windy..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=MLRF1

[westmoon]

I give up i have no idea where the center is at this point!

[shawn67]

Well when you visit the Keys they call one side the gulf side and the other the Atlantic side.

Well if you consider crossing the Upper Keys and landfalling on the peninsula around the Dade/Monroe line to be entering the eastern Gulf, then I can agree with you.

I don't know what radar you are watching but right now the center is jogging almost due east towards Marathon.

East?

oops...I meant west... I'll correct it

[ColdWaterConch]

Well when you visit the Keys they call one side the gulf side and the other the Atlantic side.

Well if you consider crossing the Upper Keys and landfalling on the peninsula around the Dade/Monroe line to be entering the eastern Gulf, then I can agree with you.

I don't know what radar you are watching but right now the center is jogging almost due east towards Marathon.

East?

Quoting Patrick Starfish: "I thought you said 'weast'."

[southerngale]

Could come inland as far west as Naples

there is 100% zero chance of this coming inland that far to the west.

And what are your professional credentials?

[Aquawind]

Quoting Patrick Starfish: "I thought you said 'weast'."

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to have slowed a bit, but does appear to be moving NW toward Marathon. If it doesn't wrap the center with deep convection it will not strengthen much more if hardly any.

[Zadok]

Ernesto's outer rainbands spreading over South Florida

By Linda Kleindienst, Ken Kaye, Scott Wyman
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Posted August 29 2006, 2:51 PM EDT

Tropical Storm Ernesto threatened to dump more than a foot of rain on Florida and possibly cause flooding as it began drenching the southern part of the state Tuesday, but it failed to show signs of strengthening into a hurricane as forecasters had once feared.

"This has not materialized into a strong wind event," said Craig Fugate, director of the state Division of Emergency Management.



State officials are predicting that the storm track could shift further west later today, possibly heading into Collier County and Naples instead of Miami.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... -news-sfla

[rockyman]

Based on this steering map, it appears the trough is within 10 degrees latitude of Ernesto....so Ernesto should start moving north fairly soon:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[gtalum]

On visible satellite, the whole mass of the storm is moving right aroudn the ridge, right along the NHC path.

[feederband]

Well when you visit the Keys they call one side the gulf side and the other the Atlantic side.

When you live in the Keys, they call one side the bay side and the other the Atlantic or ocean side.

Unless you are in Key West, in which case you say the gulf side, and not the bay side.

The water on the western/northern side of the keys is the Florida Bay, not the GOM.

Hey I'm just quoting the Charter fishing guys...


Its probably more easy for themn to say the Gulf side to the tourist......