TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[huricanwatcher]

Hey...I have a question for the mets...I've been hearing the center is east of the track currently and will possibly move offshore in a few hours...isnt that ahead of schedule? If so, what could it bring down the road in terms of track and strength?

Didnt Ernie already stick his toes in around 2 hours ago?.... Im thinking hes way east of track ... they just trying to regroup and figure out next steps..

8 pm forcast should be most interesting...

[Trugunzn]

The new GFS has shifted a little east

[storms in NC]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

You can see the center just north of MelB over water

[cinlfla]

Hey the center is over me right now

[WxGuy1]

Ernesto looks to be about 15 miles southwest of Melbourne at this time, with a motion of about NNE. I still don't think Ernesto will intensify much before he makes his 4th landfall (after Haiti, Cuba, and southern Florida). Ernesto remains moderately asymmetric, with the bulk of the precipitation on the west side of the center, though the strongest convection remains over the open water to the east and north of the center.

Latest ob from MLB indicates ESE winds @ 17kts, gusting to 28kts, consistent with the center being just southwest of that location. The center of the circulation looks like it will emerge back out into the Atlantic near Titusville.

Latest base velocity imagery from KMLB indicates that winds have continued to weaken, with nothing over 20kts inland, though some 31+kt winds remaining over water to the east of the circulation.

[huricanwatcher]

storms in NC, before all the colors came up in the radar , you can clearly see a defined center of circulation....?

[cinlfla]

Ernesto looks to be about 15 miles southwest of Melbourne at this time, with a motion of about NNE. I still don't think Ernesto will intensify much before he makes his 4th landfall (after Haiti, Cuba, and southern Florida). Ernesto remains moderately asymmetric, with the bulk of the precipitation on the west side of the center, though the strongest convection remains over the open water to the east and north of the center.

Latest ob from MLB indicates ESE winds @ 17kts, gusting to 28kts, consistent with the center being just southwest of that location. The center of the circulation looks like it will emerge back out into the Atlantic near Titusville.

Latest base velocity imagery from KMLB indicates that winds have continued to weaken, with nothing over 20kts inland, though some 31+kt winds remaining over water to the east of the circulation.

Well if Ernesto is 15 miles sw of mel then he's not over me strike the post a made I second ago.

[huricanwatcher]

Ernesto looks to be about 15 miles southwest of Melbourne at this time, with a motion of about NNE. I still don't think Ernesto will intensify much before he makes his 4th landfall (after Haiti, Cuba, and southern Florida). Ernesto remains moderately asymmetric, with the bulk of the precipitation on the west side of the center, though the strongest convection remains over the open water to the east and north of the center.

Latest ob from MLB indicates ESE winds @ 17kts, gusting to 28kts, consistent with the center being just southwest of that location. The center of the circulation looks like it will emerge back out into the Atlantic near Titusville.

Latest base velocity imagery from KMLB indicates that winds have continued to weaken, with nothing over 20kts inland, though some 31+kt winds remaining over water to the east of the circulation.

Well if Ernesto is 15 miles sw of mel then he's not over me strike the post a made a second ago.

Old data?

[AJC3]

Center is about to go over us here at the office. SLP down to 1001.1 and still falling.

[brunota2003]

Center is about to go over us here at the office. SLP down to 1001.1 and still falling.

once the center passes, dont forget to send the pressure to the NHC

[stormtruth]

Ernesto looks to be about 15 miles southwest of Melbourne at this time, with a motion of about NNE. I still don't think Ernesto will intensify much before he makes his 4th landfall (after Haiti, Cuba, and southern Florida). Ernesto remains moderately asymmetric, with the bulk of the precipitation on the west side of the center, though the strongest convection remains over the open water to the east and north of the center.

Latest ob from MLB indicates ESE winds @ 17kts, gusting to 28kts, consistent with the center being just southwest of that location. The center of the circulation looks like it will emerge back out into the Atlantic near Titusville.

Latest base velocity imagery from KMLB indicates that winds have continued to weaken, with nothing over 20kts inland, though some 31+kt winds remaining over water to the east of the circulation.

5th landfall. He had two in S. Florida

[AJC3]

Center is about to go over us here at the office. SLP down to 1001.1 and still falling.

once the center passes, dont forget to send the pressure to the NHC

I think their estimated SLP was 1001MB at 5PM. Looks right on the nut to me. Flatlining at 1001.0 now.

[Trugunzn]

Center is about to go over us here at the office. SLP down to 1001.1 and still falling.

Keep us updated for your location.

[AJC3]

1001.1 now. Wind has become variable. Just saw a big "L" go floating by overhead. Dunno if that's significant though.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I see that Melbourne has recently now been getting gusts into the lower to middle 30s too.

[Extremeweatherguy]

1001.1 now. Wind has become variable. Just saw a big "L" go floating by overhead. Dunno if that's significant though.

[huricanwatcher]

OMG..... hahahaha sorry ... but good one

[AJC3]

1000.6 showing up on wx underground form someone's home system in West Melbourne (Davis Vantage Pro)

[Thunder44]

7:10 EST Pressure at 1001mb with wind ESE at 17mph Gust to 29mph:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KMLB.html

Pressure now at the center is probably down to 1000mb.

[webke]

Center is about to go over us here at the office. SLP down to 1001.1 and still falling.

If the pressure is this low and Ernie is getting ready to move over water earlier than expected what does this mean in the way of intensification and iis it possible it will be upgraded at 8:00