TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

rnbaida · #261 Postby **rnbaida** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:10 pm

OK WE CAN WAIT UNTIL RECON FINDS WINDS TO SUPPORT MY STATEMENT... DOESNT IT LOOK LIKE A HURRICANE???

rnbaida · #262 Postby **rnbaida** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:10 pm

DONT YOU GUYS SEE THE EYE???

#263 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:11 pm

rnbaida wrote:OK WE CAN WAIT UNTIL RECON FINDS WINDS TO SUPPORT MY STATEMENT... DOESNT IT LOOK LIKE A HURRICANE???

Please dont type in caps.

DESTRUCTION5 · #264 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:11 pm

rnbaida wrote:OK WE CAN WAIT UNTIL RECON FINDS WINDS TO SUPPORT MY STATEMENT... DOESNT IT LOOK LIKE A HURRICANE???

Yes but can't spread False Info...Not a Cane yet

rnbaida · #265 Postby **rnbaida** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:11 pm

cycloneye wrote:
rnbaida wrote:OK WE CAN WAIT UNTIL RECON FINDS WINDS TO SUPPORT MY STATEMENT... DOESNT IT LOOK LIKE A HURRICANE???

Plesse dont type in caps.

sure, i am sorry.

clfenwi · #266 Postby **clfenwi** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:12 pm

It's somewhat of a moot point since we have recon in the storm anyway, but the other two agencies were slightly lower in their estimate... 3.5/55 knots below is the AFWA's estimate.

TPNT KGWC 311845
A. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (FIVE)
B. 31/1731Z (71)
C. 31.7N/1
D. 79.1W/7
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS -31/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON THE
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. FT IS BASED
ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T4.8 (ECCR)

BROWN/WEAVER

#267 Postby **WxGuy1** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:14 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
rnbaida wrote:OK WE CAN WAIT UNTIL RECON FINDS WINDS TO SUPPORT MY STATEMENT... DOESNT IT LOOK LIKE A HURRICANE???

Yes but can't spread False Info...Not a Cane yet

It doesn't really look like an eye to me, though it's difficult to tell exactly. If the reflectivity "hole" that has been present on CLX isn't the center, then I'm not sure you'd see the real eye on satellite given that there isn't an 'eye' on radar yet (again, if we take the reflectivity hole noted earlier not to be the center of circulation). No need to spread around something without having any data to confirm it (well, more than one satellite estimate anyway, especially in the face of other in-situ and remote sensing measurements that indicate otherwise).

I'd believe 55kts at the sfc right now. Could be an eye, could not be an eye. I'm unsure...

#268 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:22 pm

Another high-res McIDAS image. Convection increasing north of the center. Dry area to north eroding:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto77.gif

#269 Postby **drezee** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:27 pm

73 knots from flight level

URNT40 KWBC 311910
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
190100 3118 07750 7068 +0193 230057 +149 +132 229058 045 009
190200 3121 07753 7077 +0190 232056 +155 +118 233058 044 003
190300 3124 07756 7065 +0173 234058 +161 +110 234059 045 006
190400 3127 07758 7063 +0153 232058 +160 +101 231059 045 004
190500 3131 07800 7079 +0142 229060 +160 +092 229061 045 001
190600 3134 07803 7075 +0120 225055 +159 +105 225062 045 001
190700 3138 07805 7078 +0098 229056 +157 +099 230057 046 001
190800 3142 07808 7073 +0076 229063 +158 +114 228073 048 003
190900 3145 07810 7069 +0049 227069 +164 +096 228071 050 002
191000 3149 07813 7071 +0020 221061 +158 +128 223064 051 000

NFLDART · #270 Postby **NFLDART** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:36 pm

sure looking healthy

Zardoz · #271 Postby **Zardoz** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:43 pm

Charleston Reflectivity Composite Radar Loop:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Yes, healthy indeed...

Whaddya think: Myrtle Beach landfall?

#272 Postby **bjackrian** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:49 pm

Zardoz wrote:Charleston Reflectivity Composite Radar Loop:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Yes, healthy indeed...

Whaddya think: Myrtle Beach landfall?

Looks to me more like Wilmington, but we'll see before too long, I'd imagine.

nequad · #273 Postby **nequad** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:51 pm

Doesn't appear to be heading for Myrtle. If it stays on the tracks it's been on for the past few hours it may pass just east of Cape Fear.

Stratusxpeye · #274 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:53 pm

I'd guess wlmington. Do you think I would have enough time to get up there? I'm currently in Tampa. 8 hour drive. He'll prolly be on shor by then. Hmmmm Wanted to get some video and I feel let down by Ernestos path through Florida

It's nice to experience low end CAT 1's or High TS's You can enjoy the experience unlikle the cat 3 4's that just scare you.

#275 Postby **Tstormwatcher** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:57 pm

Looking at the current radar loop, I believe Wilmington or just to the east will be the landfall area.

westmoon · #276 Postby **westmoon** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:57 pm

Did Ernesto cross the gulf stream or the fountian of youth?? Talk about a very sick storm making a fast recovery. :eek:

#277 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:59 pm

Gulf Stream crossing. He doesn't know what he wants to do...

SunnyThoughts · #278 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:00 pm

991 mb reported by latest vdm

all_we_know_is_FALLING · #279 Postby **all_we_know_is_FALLING** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:01 pm

991 is lower than Ernesto's pressure was when he was a hurricane a few days ago, right?

#280 Postby **terstorm1012** » Thu Aug 31, 2006 3:01 pm

The cloudless areas within the storm look like dry air ingestion to me, but my eye is still largely untrained. Is there a way to tell the difference?

TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

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