TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #6

[Zardoz]

From AccuWeather:

Florence Finally Showing Signs of Getting Stronger

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

As of 2:00 p.m. EDT Friday, Tropical Storm Florence was near 23.3 north and 59.7 west, or about 695 miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Florence is moving to the west-northwest at 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds are now estimated near 55 mph with gusts to 65 mph. Estimated central pressure is 998 millibars, or 29.47 inches. Florence is now starting to intensify faster.

[Derek Ortt]

Accuwx is wrong in this case. They must have missed the AF Dvorak estimate

Not sure why the models are not available on the OSU page yet, but they have been run already

[StormWarning1]

Anyone notice the satellite presentation of Florence is starting to diminish. Looks like the south and east side of the storm is getting sheared. Certainly is not strengthening.

[Thunder44]

Anyone notice the satellite presentation of Florence is starting to diminish. Looks like the south and east side of the storm is getting sheared. Certainly is not strengthening.

I don't know. There doesn't appear to be much shear. It's does seem to be a little dry down there.

[Derek Ortt]

much of the inflow still is not going into Florence... but into the broad convection extending SE of Florence

This may explain the lack of intensification

[CrazyC83]

Now I am wondering is it going to intensify at all ever?

[cpdaman]

derek is this broad convection part of the front from the trough in the east-central atlantic or the old invest that was east of it ( or neither)

[fci]

with that trough approaching?

As I said in another thread, one has a better chance of winning the powerball and mega millions multi state lotteries in the same week than this thing does of hitting Florida

IT IS NOT COMING TO FLORIDA

Never say never.
And you are close to saying never.

Remember Ernesto anytime you are tempted to say never anything like it like "is not" or will not"

BTW, I believe that it should not be a threat to Florida.

[Derek Ortt]

As I said, Ernesto was an anamoly and changes nothing.

If meteorological evidence and reasoning says no chance, I will continue to say no chance

[cpdaman]

guys relax its semantics no body gives this a shot to go to florida

[Lowpressure]

TAFB estimate is 45KT, and the Air Force remains at 35KT

If we see a wind speed increase at 5, probably would only be to 50KT, but it could stay at 45KT since that is the average of the Dvorak estimates

Derek,
1) Do you think that Flos overall size is the major inhibiting factor?
2) I do not place much weight at all with the Ernesto track vs. models. I simply wish that people would analize the situation/pattern, not just look at models and say that is where it is going.
3) All of your input is much appreciated here, you are an objective class act.

[Derek Ortt]

I think its the large trough to the east that is inhibiting this thing

It is diverting some of Florence's inflow, though recent visible imagery shows this may soon end

[cpdaman]

what is this trough's influence on the bermuda high

[CrazyC83]

Has she awakened?

[Lowpressure]

Thanks for the answer. I can not remember a storm where the NHC forecasted strengthening for so long without it happening and then really having no explaination as to why not.

[CrazyC83]

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
Disclaimer | Method Description and Validation | Sponsors



Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 SEP 2006 Time : 191500 UTC
Lat : 23:19:37 N Lon : 59:57:28 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 996.4mb/ 51.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -68.8C Cloud Region Temp : -58.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[SouthFloridawx]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Looks like that Upper Level low turned into an outflow jet for Florence. Flo is looking much better this afternoon. Looks like she ready to party.

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow...i'm still in shock with the lack of strengthening..I tell you guys...if this thing doesn't become a hurricane I REALLY will have to call this season a dud


At this rate, Ioki alone will kill our total ACE value....easily.

[Derek Ortt]

I am not sure this is going to separate from the trough to its east. It has had 5 days to do so, and has not been able to.

This may keep intensification down considerably, but keep the windfield very large

[Weatherfreak000]

Wow...this year is amazing...never before have a seen three straight storms forecasted to become strong hurricane players end up all becoming duds...assuming Florence never makes it.


Even counting out Florence two in a row is really really odd.


It's like God is sweeping all the strength out of all the storms this year almost.