Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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HURAKAN
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#261 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:00 pm

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cheezyWXguy
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#262 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:07 pm

cinlfla wrote:
hial2 wrote:
cinlfla wrote:Has anyone noticed that Helene is moving north of the forecast points, What will this mean for her future track?


According to a respected pro met, the "hole" we see is not the center of the storm...the center is actually to the n/w of the "hole"..



I thought the center was that huge hole, in what I thought was the center of the storm. but your saying it's not? I've been tracking the wrong thing. Figures.


I doubt it...its pretty hard to have a poorly stacked 100-115mph hurricane
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#263 Postby hial2 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:09 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
cinlfla wrote:
hial2 wrote:
cinlfla wrote:Has anyone noticed that Helene is moving north of the forecast points, What will this mean for her future track?


According to a respected pro met, the "hole" we see is not the center of the storm...the center is actually to the n/w of the "hole"..



I thought the center was that huge hole, in what I thought was the center of the storm. but your saying it's not? I've been tracking the wrong thing. Figures.


I doubt it...its pretty hard to have a poorly stacked 100-115mph hurricane


It has to do with the angle of the satellite in relation to the storm...
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#264 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:09 pm

hial2 wrote:
cinlfla wrote:Has anyone noticed that Helene is moving north of the forecast points, What will this mean for her future track?


According to a respected pro met, the "hole" we see is not the center of the storm...the center is actually to the n/w of the "hole"..


The surface center is actually a little south and west of the center of the eye as it appears on satellite. Satellite is over the equator looking ENE toward Helene. Helene's center is a cone with the point near the surface and the top tilted away to the north and east. On satellite, your eye focuses on the top of the cone, 10 miles above the surface. The point of the cone is angled a bit south and west of the top of the cone.

However, for the purpose of calculating motion, it makes no difference whether you use the center of the eye aloft or at the surface.
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#265 Postby hial2 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:12 pm

wxman57 wrote:
hial2 wrote:
cinlfla wrote:Has anyone noticed that Helene is moving north of the forecast points, What will this mean for her future track?


According to a respected pro met, the "hole" we see is not the center of the storm...the center is actually to the n/w of the "hole"

corrected to s/w of the hole
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#266 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:15 pm

oh...well southwest makes MUCH more sense
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#267 Postby storms in NC » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:16 pm

http://img148.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... 5baud8.jpg
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#268 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:40 pm

THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER SINCE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING THE
TRACK FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. THE GFS HAS HAD THE LEFTMOST TRACK
SO FAR...BUT NOW THE UKMET MODEL HAS SHIFTED TO NEAR THE GFS
SOLUTION. THE GFDL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN TURNING HELENE
NORTHWARD AND ITS SOLUTION IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

Part of the discussion at 5 PM.They are favoring very much the GFDL over UKMET and GFS at this point.
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#269 Postby Windtalker1 » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:43 pm

cycloneye wrote:THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER SINCE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING THE
TRACK FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. THE GFS HAS HAD THE LEFTMOST TRACK
SO FAR...BUT NOW THE UKMET MODEL HAS SHIFTED TO NEAR THE GFS
SOLUTION. THE GFDL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN TURNING HELENE
NORTHWARD AND ITS SOLUTION IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

Part of the discussion at 5 PM.They are favoring very much the GFDL over UKMET and GFS at this point.
Until they see it happening :)
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#270 Postby Pebbles » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:44 pm

Part of the discussion at 5 PM.They are favoring very much the GFDL over UKMET and GFS at this point.Will that change tonight or tommorow?


I found this an interesting discussion as well. Wait and see mode is always the hardest and think the next 24 hours will be quite the nail biter and test of patience for those of us who follow these closely. It's model against model and I can't wait to see which wins the final round.
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#271 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:46 pm

they favor the GFDL because they designed it i think!
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#272 Postby WeatherTracker » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:47 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.4mb/112.4kt

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt3.html
Last edited by WeatherTracker on Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#273 Postby cinlfla » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:47 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:they favor the GFDL because they designed it i think!



Who designed the Ukmet and the GFS and Nogaps?
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#274 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:48 pm

:eek:
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#275 Postby storms in NC » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:48 pm

Part of the discussion at 5 PM.They are favoring very much the GFDL over UKMET and GFS at this point.


I hope they are right.
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#276 Postby WeatherTracker » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:48 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote::eek:


What is wrong with you?
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#277 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:49 pm

cinlfla wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:they favor the GFDL because they designed it i think!



Who designed the Ukmet and the GFS and Nogaps?


i dont know? i doubt it was the NHC though. but i do believe that the NHC created the GFDL just for Ttopical Cyclones, so that would be why they favor it!
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#278 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:50 pm

WeatherTracker wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote::eek:


What is wrong with you?


it was in response to this:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.4mb/112.4kt
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#279 Postby WeatherTracker » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:51 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
WeatherTracker wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote::eek:


What is wrong with you?


it was in response to this:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.4mb/112.4kt


That is the dorvak number---- i think.... :lol:
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#280 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 17, 2006 3:52 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
WeatherTracker wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote::eek:


What is wrong with you?


it was in response to this:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.4mb/112.4kt


The raw T# is 6.4 on there :eek:
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