ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

3 months till La Nina is a bit optimistic since Nino 3.4 has only had negative values for one week and that was like 2-3 weeks ago now.

Here are the numbers from the start of 2007 for El Nino 3-4 area.Still the numbers dont show 3-4 turning cooler.

2007010120070107 0.92
2007010820070114 0.83
2007011520070121 0.57
2007012220070128 0.43
2007012920070204 0.32
2007020520070211 0.20
2007021220070218 0.20
2007021920070225 0.05
2007022620070304 0.08
2007030520070311 0.04
2007031220070318 0.14
2007031920070325 0.12
2007032620070401 0.14

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml

[SouthFloridawx]

After a brief warming as we are seeing... I think we'll see this regions temperatures fall.

CPC model show's 1 & 2 bombing to -2.0 below normal temps.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... SSTMon.gif

Nino 3, not as severe but to -1.5.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... SSTMon.gif

Nino 3.4 down to -1.5 Also
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... SSTMon.gif

Nino 4 to a little below .-5
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... SSTMon.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

After looking at another link... it does show the SOI drop, but will it continue?

In the CPC model forecast, nino 1+2 and even 3 to 3+4... we see the temps drop to below 1.5.

However in the Nina 4 region, we see it only go to -.5.


Could the SOI only affect the majority of an area? Could it mainly affect the Mean temps in mostly the Nino 4 region? Of course since 3 and 4 are link this is going to cause warming in that region also.

What area affects the Atlantic?

Is it mainly Nino 1 through 3?

Is Nino 4 more of a what is to come Region?

[wxmann_91]

The greatest negative subsurface anomalies are over the Nino 1.2 region. It might turn out that this Nina might be similar to the last Nino, in that the Nino 1.2 area has the greatest anomalies, and the resultant midlatitude response is different than what is expected for a "normal" Nina.

[AussieMark]

Nino 4 needs to drop before we can get into La Nina

since a ENSO are based on the Nino 3.4 anomalities

Nino 4 is still very positive

[gatorcane]

Looks very likely we will have a significant La Nina event this year as SSTs are very cool at this moment. That combined with above normal SSTs in the Atlantic is going to make an interesting situation for us.

[cycloneye]

There is a division of the cool and warmer waters.More cooler subsurface waters east of 140w and more warmer waters west of 140w at el nino 3-4.

[cycloneye]

It will be very interesting to see what BoM in the next update that will be released in a few hours will say about the SOI continuing to go down.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.dt3

[AussieMark]

BOM have delayed their ENSO summary for 2 weeks

so next one will be out April 25

[P.K.]

Was just wondering why the date had changed on it.

[cycloneye]

BOM have delayed their ENSO summary for 2 weeks

so next one will be out April 25

Maybe,they want to wait for more data from the SOI that is still going down to then make a better forecast.

[MWatkins]

Yeah...the SOI has tanked a little...but I really think too much can be made of an index that is updated daily...it's kind of like watching the wobbles in satellite imagery and calling the wobble movement...

I think this is the index to watch...but it isn't as fun since it is updated weekly.

nino 3.4 has nudged up slightly...but still way down there at .21...

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/nino_3.4.dt3

MW

[P.K.]

3 month Nino 3.4 ave is dropping about 0.06C a week at the moment, that will slow soon though as it is about as cool at the moment as it was two months ago. About time I did a new Nino 3.4 graph really.

I think the late update is due to the mets at the BoM being too busy watching the cricket world cup.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah...the SOI has tanked a little...but I really think too much can be made of an index that is updated daily...it's kind of like watching the wobbles in satellite imagery and calling the wobble movement...

I think this is the index to watch...but it isn't as fun since it is updated weekly.

nino 3.4 has nudged up slightly...but still way down there at .21...

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/nino_3.4.dt3

MW

I don't have a program that is able to read that file...

What kind of software do you need?

[P.K.]

Notepad will do fine, it is only a text file.

[cycloneye]

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... nical.html

This is the April update from IRI independent group that does forecasts of ENSO.They say Neutral to weak la nina will be the rule thru the summer.El nino is not likely to make an appearance.

[SouthFloridawx]

Been watching the shear anomaly graphic at the ssd site and it looks like we've got below normal shear already. Not trying to freak anyone, just sharing information that I noticed.

[web]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyashr.gif[/web]

[web]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xycshr.gif[/web]

[web]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif[/web]

[canegrl04]

Below normal shear and warm ssts are a recipe for disaster for the US coastline this season But we've got a couple more months to go.If the trend continues ,get ready for a 2005 type of hurricane season

[MiamiensisWx]

Below normal shear and warm ssts are a recipe for disaster for the US coastline this season But we've got a couple more months to go.If the trend continues ,get ready for a 2005 type of hurricane season

This post seems alarmist. In addition, it only adds to complacency. Seasons with the 2005, 1933, and 1995 levels of activity are exceptional. They are extremely rare. Hyping each season to 2005 levels only results in less respect for seasons with totals below 28 named storms. Andrew (1992) and Alicia (1993) occurred in below average seasons. I can recall many examples of below average seasons with deadly and destructive landfalls. As we have seen in many years, even a tropical storm can kill people.

We need to stop the 2005 (and global warming) hysteria. We do not need panic (and complacency). I'm not worried or nonchalant. Preparation is the key.

On an unrelated side note, I'm starting to believe La Nina may not form, and if it develops I believe it will be a weak event.

[deltadog03]

ya the CFS and NCEP model, they might be the same, BLEW the el nino forecast really badly. I seen the Euro's forecast that was updated on april 1 and it has a neutral to a very SLIGHT la nina for the summer and a weak to MDT one for the winter. Now, the CFS has the stuff tanking MUCH earlier so we shall see who gets round 2 right, but round 1 clearly went to the european!