GOM/Caribbean/Atlantic Ocean SST'S and Anomalies

[benny]

Reynolds Atlantic Anomalies weekly Update



The latest Reynolds Anomalies of June 30th data shows a average MDR area,a more warmer Western and Central Atlantic and a very warm Northern Atlantic.

This is the coolest the tropical Atlantic has been since this time in 2003. I think June will be relatively close to 1996's value of +.2 or so but I'm not sure.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indic ... tl.indices

[benny]

This is the weekly forecast of sst's from CFS.They continue to cool down the MDR area by August and September.Maybe this is what TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) July forecast talks about this cooldown in the MDR due to the strong trade winds.

The CFS has been forecasting a rather moderate to strong La Nina for months now... and a cool tropical Atlantic as well. Peculiar that they were pretty right for the Atlantic but the pacific is flat 0.0 in Nino 3.4 as of last week..

[windstorm99]

Lastest NCEP 6 month sea surface tempereature outlook continues to suggest slightly cooler than normal conditions off the southeast U.S. coast and in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

They are also forcasting a strong La Nina to be in place by august and lasting threw the end of the year.

More Here

['CaneFreak]

For some reason, I have a hard time believing that a STRONG La Nina will occur this year...I can see a weak La Nina occuring, but NOT a strong one. Maybe I will be wrong!! Who knows?

[Aquawind]

Well the Florida straights and the entire Caribbean is above.. were only talking about .5 degrees either way here from normal so no big deal come crunch time. We be watching..

[cycloneye]

For some reason, I have a hard time believing that a STRONG La Nina will occur this year...I can see a weak La Nina occuring, but NOT a strong one. Maybe I will be wrong!! Who knows?

I concur that a strong La Nina is not in the cards.Neutral to Weak La Nina will be the ENSO range when the peak of the season arrives and continuing thru the end of 2007.

[benny]

For some reason, I have a hard time believing that a STRONG La Nina will occur this year...I can see a weak La Nina occuring, but NOT a strong one. Maybe I will be wrong!! Who knows?

It is getting very late for any sort of strong La Nina historically. I have a feeling we will have cooling in the Nino 3-4 regions through hurricane season, but perhaps end up in the neighbourhood of the 1995 event strength-wise.

[Aric Dunn]

For some reason, I have a hard time believing that a STRONG La Nina will occur this year...I can see a weak La Nina occuring, but NOT a strong one. Maybe I will be wrong!! Who knows?

It is getting very late for any sort of strong La Nina historically. I have a feeling we will have cooling in the Nino 3-4 regions through hurricane season, but perhaps end up in the neighbourhood of the 1995 event strength-wise.

either way .. shear over the atlantic would be below normal .. and the important thing to rememeber

[NDG]

For some reason, I have a hard time believing that a STRONG La Nina will occur this year...I can see a weak La Nina occuring, but NOT a strong one. Maybe I will be wrong!! Who knows?

It is getting very late for any sort of strong La Nina historically. I have a feeling we will have cooling in the Nino 3-4 regions through hurricane season, but perhaps end up in the neighbourhood of the 1995 event strength-wise.

either way .. shear over the atlantic would be below normal .. and the important thing to rememeber

Exactly, No El Nino=no high shear over the tropical Atlantic to the Caribbean, doesn't matter if we get a neutral, weak or strong La Nina, shear has been running already in average slightly below average.

[benny]

For some reason, I have a hard time believing that a STRONG La Nina will occur this year...I can see a weak La Nina occuring, but NOT a strong one. Maybe I will be wrong!! Who knows?

It is getting very late for any sort of strong La Nina historically. I have a feeling we will have cooling in the Nino 3-4 regions through hurricane season, but perhaps end up in the neighbourhood of the 1995 event strength-wise.

either way .. shear over the atlantic would be below normal .. and the important thing to rememeber

Well, that may be the case.. but remember the tropical Atlantic has cooled off a lot since the record warm years of 2005 and 2006. Neutral ENSO conditions and very warm waters may be the recipe for an active season in this era... but neutral ENSO conditions and average waters? Maybe only slightly above average. I think if the water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are closer to normal, there better be at least a weak La Nina to open up the possibility for a very busy season.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow, look at all the red near the Florida Keys! Maybe we'll see alot more homegrown systems this year.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

[Aquawind]

Yeah.. it's been very hot and clearly a big time warming pattern around here for the last few weeks..as it should be. The eastern MDR might not be ready but it sure is in the west and GOM..

[Eyewall]

MAJOR warming pattern...
latest anomalies: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

[JonathanBelles]

I just got back from the beach an hour or two ago and the water, just a guess, was in the upper 80's. First Time I have been in the ocean in a couple weeks.

[cycloneye]

MAJOR warming pattern...
latest anomalies: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif

That was last week's update from Reynolds.On Monday there will be another update from them.Let's see how those Anomalies are in respect to last week.We have to watch if the current warming is a definite trend or are fluctuations.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Things may remain calm for a couple weeks and then
really get cranking in August, becoming very active.

[cycloneye]

The latest Reynolds anomalies weekly update of Jult 7th have a change towards cooler waters in parts of the basin.Western Atlantic cools down,MDR continues in an average status.The GOM/Caribbean and the Central subtropical Atlantic are slightly above average.

Aquawind (Paul) what do you think of this up and down going on? Last week it was warmer in the Western Atlantic but that changed in this week's update.

[Aquawind]

Hmm I think those numbers off the East coast could be changing. I thought they were like balmy up in the NE this last week..and they sure are now..lol

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=95927

I didn't expect that +2F in the central ATL anyways.. The thing is the anomalies within 1 degree of normal are getting less significant. 84 or 85, 87 or 86, 81 or 82.. either way if the other conditions are good the 1 or 2 degree is even less significant. It's all plenty warm for development and I expect it will be come prime time. I would not be getting relaxed along the east coast by any means..

Fixed Link

[MGC]

Considering how dry the atmosphere has been over the entire basin lately, I'm expecting SST to quickly increase. The sun has been working overtime to warm the oceans as of late. Last time I checked the SST were in the mid 80's in the GOM, they might be near 90 by the 1st of August. Who needs the loop current?...MGC

[skysummit]

I agree MGC. The Gulf has warmed up big time over the past couple weeks. According to this image, the central Gulf is already near, or at 90 in some locations.