Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
LAST NIGHT SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT
LOW AND THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. HOWEVER..SINCE THIS
MORNING CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS SFC LOW
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST AT
11/1500Z...SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS AND IS
BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE OF ORGANIZATION.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE REMNANTS OF ANDREA FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 78W-80W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1749.shtml?

[cpdaman]

that is very sad to hear, but like the man said surfers live for days like this, and there is danger inherent in surfing, and when it is as big as it was tuesday in florida only surfers who are experienced should be out

but like driving a car on the highway there are bound to be a few accidents even when people obey the law/make sound decisons, same with the surf just sad to hear

[Thunder44]

this afternoon's Dvorak T numbers:

11/1745 UTC 28.5N 79.6W T1.0/1.0 ANDREA

A sign of better organization and also more tropical characteristics.

[Damar91]

If she is going to make her move, now is the time. That cold front will be here shortly to sweep her away. It sure would be nice if she could bomb just a little to give us some rain down here......

[Dynamic]

000
WONT41 KNHC 111856
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 11 2007

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM
ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY...BUT IT LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO QUALIFY AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF
NECESSARY.

INTERESTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[punkyg]

Will she redevelop? i say oh yea and i will even help her get her convection back in big burst!


take that former andrea! she is alive oops.

[Blown Away]

Andrea looking better as time goes by. I've been watching the Melbourne radar for the past few hours and since about 2pm, she has had more of an E component to the S movement. She is starting to move away, unfortunately.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Thunder44]

Notice they are only monitoring for "tropical cyclone" development. They probably think has enough tropical characteristics now.

[cpdaman]

the movement to me seems to have slowed to a slow drift to the ESE maybe stationary

looks line a decent line of showers on the western flank over land not that wide spread though

that trough in the west gulf will be kicking andrea out tonite (what ever is left or develops of her anyway)

[CrazyC83]

I think it is definitely tropical, but it lacks the low-level circulation at this point. I would classify it as a tropical low right now.

[Thunder44]

I think it is definitely tropical, but it lacks the low-level circulation at this point. I would classify it as a tropical low right now.

It definitely has a low-level circulation. It just that the thunderstorm aren't significant and organzied enough around the center.

[wjs3]

I think it is definitely tropical, but it lacks the low-level circulation at this point. I would classify it as a tropical low right now.

It definitely has a low-level circulation. It just that the thunderstorm aren't significant and organzied enough around the center.

Right on Thunder44. The low level circ is very clear. It's the thunderstorm organization that's the rub. I'm not sure what to make of this new batch of storms firing to the SE of the last batch.

WJS3

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is as tropical as it ever was, in convection has formed over the LLC. Looking good. We will have to see what it doe's when the trough kicks it.

[cycloneye]

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE ANDREA (AL012007) 20070511 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070511 1800 070512 0600 070512 1800 070513 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.6N 79.5W 28.3N 79.4W 28.6N 79.0W 28.7N 77.6W
BAMD 28.6N 79.5W 28.8N 79.0W 29.6N 78.7W 30.3N 77.3W
BAMM 28.6N 79.5W 28.5N 79.4W 29.1N 79.1W 29.5N 77.9W
LBAR 28.6N 79.5W 28.9N 78.3W 29.9N 77.2W 31.1N 74.9W
SHIP 30KTS 34KTS 41KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 34KTS 41KTS 46KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070513 1800 070514 1800 070515 1800 070516 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.0N 75.5W 28.2N 70.5W 27.2N 69.9W 29.4N 70.9W
BAMD 30.8N 73.0W 36.2N 54.0W 46.8N 48.2W 53.5N 43.2W
BAMM 29.8N 75.0W 31.5N 59.3W 40.4N 44.6W 50.9N 35.2W
LBAR 32.3N 71.2W 34.3N 59.2W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 50KTS 52KTS 40KTS 21KTS
DSHP 50KTS 52KTS 40KTS 21KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.6N LONCUR = 79.5W DIRCUR = 160DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 29.0N LONM12 = 79.8W DIRM12 = 173DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 29.7N LONM24 = 79.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Tropical Models are out again for Andrea.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

When the trough pics it up, it will take energy from the trough. In which is why it bombs to 50 knots plus on the models. I think Andrea will ride again soon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www1.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rms ... PICAL.html


Impressive. A new blow up is forming over the center, also appears to be outflow developing. I think it could fellow those models in go to 50 knots, as its being kicked out be the trough.

[HURAKAN]

Andrea, more tropical than ever.

[Cyclenall]

I agree with the ones who think this has become more tropical in nature then ST. It really made a comeback today after looking dead last night. I'm going to give it a 50% chance of regeneration...if it has not already. There are also nice flare-ups of convection on the SE part of the system just within the last hour(s).

[wxman57]

Actually, the LLC is to the NW of the convection, not over the center at all. I took a few McIDAS shots of Andrea today to show all the smoke across Florida. Here's one from this morning:



And one from a few minutes ago. That bright white "blob" is well to the SSE of the LLC, which appears to be weakening.

[wxman57]

I agree with the ones who think this has become more tropical in nature then ST. It really made a comeback today after looking dead last night. I'm going to give it a 50% chance of regeneration...if it has not already. There are also nice flare-ups of convection on the SE part of the system just within the last hour(s).

Note the position of the weakening LLC on my images above. That burst of convection appears to be forming on some colliding outflow boundaries well to the SSE of the LLC. THe LLC is clearly weaker than this morning on satellite and from buoy reports. Buoys report winds of 15-20 kts now with pressures up to 1009mb. Andrea just put on a little show for us today. It won't regenerate. But, I agree, it does look more tropical today.

Oh, and here's a MODIS true-color shot from earlier today. Shows the smoke across Florida well.

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 30.1km.jpg