Tropical Depression Barry Main Thread

[wxman57]

I have no earthly idea why this was named. This system is and never was anywhere near tropical; it always resembled a frontal system, and the center has always been exposed; last night the models were undecided on whether to consider it cold- or warm-core. SAB agrees with me:

01/2345 UTC 24.2N 85.1W TOO WEAK BARRY

Going back to the cyclone phase diagrams, this is what the latest model runs have initiated Barry as:

18Z GFS: asymmetric warm-core becoming frontal cold-core
18Z NAM: Doesn't pick it up. The NAM had this earlier today and last night. It has an asymmetric warm-core system forming in 18 hours off the coast of Florida.
18Z GFDL: Doesn't pick up the system, develops something over land in 24 hours
18Z UKMO: asymmetric warm-core
12Z CMC: symmetric warm-core
12Z NOGAPS: symmetric warm-core about to become asymmetric

Model forecasts and Sat estimates are irrelevant against surface obs and recon data.

Generally true, but Barry weakened very rapidly in the hour after recon left. So the satellite estimate may be quite valid. I think that Barry was a true TS for about 2 hours. It's nothing but a remnant low now, not very tropical any more.

[drezee]

It can be easily estimated that it has been sustained TS winds at 42003 for 30 minutes now

From Buoy 42003:
9:50 pm NE ( 60 deg ) 35.0 kts
9:40 pm NE ( 56 deg ) 34.8 kts
9:30 pm ENE ( 59 deg ) 34.4 kts
9:20 pm ENE ( 60 deg ) 34.8 kts
9:10 pm ENE ( 59 deg ) 33.8 kts
9:00 pm ENE ( 57 deg ) 32.1 kts
8:50 pm ENE ( 59 deg ) 31.5 kts

[Rainband]

still I am glad we got the rain and will be getting a lot more

[rainhunter]

I just heard on the channel 4 news out of Jax that about only 1-2" of rain was expected in the Jax area (about 1" in the SE Ga fires area and so wouldn't have much effect of the fires ). They had lowered the forecast from earlier in the evening, but I sure hope we get a favorable surprise!

[drezee]

NHC forecast has shifted E a bit

[Coredesat]

Still a TS at 11 PM...well, I won't be posting forecasts on it, at least.

[shannon]

Thanks for the responses! I didn't want to make any assumptions.

[vbhoutex]

Breaking news: Barry rainfall estimates are now cut in half as of now.
The rainfall will not be more than 1.5 or 2 inches at most 1 inch of rain is now the expected total for most of Florida maybe less than that. Barry is drying up big time............

My local news just said 3-6.

Most forecasts I've seen indicate 3-6 inches for the majority of Florida (minus the western parts of the panhandle).

Those were of the late afternoon to early evening forecasts, expect a lowering of rainfall estimates later tonight.......

Keep posting false info and you won't be here to post them

Jaxfladude stop posting false information. This will be the only warning you recieve past the one Rainband already posted. If it happens one more time you are gone. We have already recieved a complaint from an NWS employee concerning this.

FAIR WARNING TO ANYONE WHO CONTINUES TO POST IN THIS WAY-YOU WILL BE GIVEN A MINIMUM ONE WEEK SUSPENSION ON YOUR FIRST OFFENSE AND IT WILL BE WITHOUT WARNING.

[Brent]

50 mph looks VERY generous...

[artist]

I just heard on the channel 4 news out of Jax that about only 1-2" of rain was expected in the Jax area (about 1" in the SE Ga fires area and so wouldn't have much effect of the fires ). They had lowered the forecast from earlier in the evening, but I sure hope we get a favorable surprise!

interesting....

and just 1 post as well

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Still a TS at 11 PM...well, I won't be posting forecasts on it, at least.

Your get to post your forecast when super hurricane Ingrid gets here. It has a history of being a power storm.

[cycloneye]

Jaxfladude,also you have to post the source (In other words a link) to the information.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It's getting windier...id say
up to 25 mph from about 20 earlier
lots of rain

[jlauderdal]

Breaking news: Barry rainfall estimates are now cut in half as of now.
The rainfall will not be more than 1.5 or 2 inches at most 1 inch of rain is now the expected total for most of Florida maybe less than that. Barry is drying up big time............

My local news just said 3-6.

Most forecasts I've seen indicate 3-6 inches for the majority of Florida (minus the western parts of the panhandle).

Those were of the late afternoon to early evening forecasts, expect a lowering of rainfall estimates later tonight.......

2.5 in my gauge so far and more upstream on the way.

[vbhoutex]

I just heard on the channel 4 news out of Jax that about only 1-2" of rain was expected in the Jax area (about 1" in the SE Ga fires area and so wouldn't have much effect of the fires ). They had lowered the forecast from earlier in the evening, but I sure hope we get a favorable surprise!

Gee funny thing you trace back to jax too and you just joined after a warning. Things that make you go HHHMMMMM?????

[srainhoutx]

Sipet from NHC 11 PM Advisory..



BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA. ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.


$$
FORECASTER AVILA

enjoy the rain folks, you need it badly

[Windtalker1]

winds are gusting strong in S Florida....some over Tropical storm force. On radar it looks like Northern Central Dade and Central Broward County are in for a strong storm in about an hour

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1000 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA

CITY SKY/WX TMP WIND PRES
W PALM BEACH HVY RAIN 76 E16G25 29.88S
FT LAUDERDALE LGT RAIN 79 E21G26 29.85S
MIAMI LGT RAIN 77 E18 29.85F
MIAMI BEACH N/A N/A SE35G41 N/A

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rad ... imate=true

Can maybe dump a good 1/2 to 1" of rain....been rainning steady here all day. Probable have a good 2" or more already.

[wxman57]

50 mph looks VERY generous...

Yeah, I'd agree. I doubt the NHC would upgrade anything that looked like this to a 50 mph TS, but the NHC tends to be very cautions with storms approaching land. Is there any recon scheduled for tonight? I'm going to bed. Have to get up at 4:30 to go to work. Die Barry, DIE!

[Extremeweatherguy]

35mph sustained gusting to 41mph at Miami Beach aint too shabby. Usually that's right around where you start to notice the first signs of minor wind damage (palm frawns/small limbs blowing down, loose debris knocked over, very isolated power loss). Hopefully it doesn't get much stronger than that for you guys!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

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