Thinking West-Central Gulf for Tropical Formation 9-12 Days

[MGC]

Well, for what its worth....the ULL over Cuba does seem to be elongating this evening. The W Carb could see a less hostile upper air enviroment later in the week.......MGC

[Pearl River]

Is Chantal going to form soon?

[Air Force Met]

you know Im terribly sorry I started all this.. with such a simple question to MR.BB .. but maybe it was a good thing ?? maybe all this tension needed to come clean? im finally seeing some good "constructive criticism"! and thats what its all about ..learning!! I hope i did not cause too much pain and hardship for it was not my intention, I simply was trying to figure out how MR.BB was making his prediction and it turned into a 6 to 7 page (for the most part a release) what ever you want to call it. but anyway.. i like mr. derecho's analysis ! i also used the the "farmers almanac" and a analogy of the type of forecast that come from such vague predictions and i agree with mr. derecho. and airforce met and all the others who took a step back and saw the bigger picture!

Don't be sorry. You were accused of ridicule by BB when you did no such thing. You even tried to sooth the water by saying "anyway sorry if my wording was inadequate in getting my message across."

All your posts up to that point were point specific and you were asking questions. He then...in a post to me on the same page you apologized (for what I don't know)...he accused you of ridicule of him and "personal attacks." You had not said one word to him since that post...and really had not said anything cross to him in the whole thread. The spat you had where I chimed in was b/w you and Starburst....not you and him. All you had done was ask him questions about where he was getting his ideas.

I say this in case those who don't want to take the time to go back and read how all this unfolded. Sevenleft was the one who set him off by accusing him of guessing (oh my)....and somehow...Aric got lumped in...which I have yet to figure out.

Frankly...BB owes YOU and apology...because while he sits here and types about not attacking others...when he attacked first with a false acusation. I find that interesting.

[DrewFL]

you know Im terribly sorry I started all this.. with such a simple question to MR.BB .. but maybe it was a good thing ?? maybe all this tension needed to come clean? im finally seeing some good "constructive criticism"! and thats what its all about ..learning!! I hope i did not cause too much pain and hardship for it was not my intention, I simply was trying to figure out how MR.BB was making his prediction and it turned into a 6 to 7 page (for the most part a release) what ever you want to call it. but anyway.. i like mr. derecho's analysis ! i also used the the "farmers almanac" and a analogy of the type of forecast that come from such vague predictions and i agree with mr. derecho. and airforce met and all the others who took a step back and saw the bigger picture!

Don't be sorry. You were accused of ridicule by BB when you did no such thing. You even tried to sooth the water by saying "anyway sorry if my wording was inadequate in getting my message across."

All your posts up to that point were point specific and you were asking questions. He then...in a post to me on the same page you apologized (for what I don't know)...he accused you of ridicule of him and "personal attacks." You had not said one word to him since that post...and really had not said anything cross to him in the whole thread. The spat you had where I chimed in was b/w you and Starburst....not you and him. All you had done was ask him questions about where he was getting his ideas.

I say this in case those who don't want to take the time to go back and read how all this unfolded. Sevenleft was the one who set him off by accusing him of guessing (oh my)....and somehow...Aric got lumped in...which I have yet to figure out.

Frankly...BB owes YOU and apology...because while he sits here and types about not attacking others...when he attacked first with a false acusation. I find that interesting.

What kind of post is this?? Why are you keeping this going?
Who gives a crap??

['CaneFreak]

you know Im terribly sorry I started all this.. with such a simple question to MR.BB .. but maybe it was a good thing ?? maybe all this tension needed to come clean? im finally seeing some good "constructive criticism"! and thats what its all about ..learning!! I hope i did not cause too much pain and hardship for it was not my intention, I simply was trying to figure out how MR.BB was making his prediction and it turned into a 6 to 7 page (for the most part a release) what ever you want to call it. but anyway.. i like mr. derecho's analysis ! i also used the the "farmers almanac" and a analogy of the type of forecast that come from such vague predictions and i agree with mr. derecho. and airforce met and all the others who took a step back and saw the bigger picture!

Don't be sorry. You were accused of ridicule by BB when you did no such thing. You even tried to sooth the water by saying "anyway sorry if my wording was inadequate in getting my message across."

All your posts up to that point were point specific and you were asking questions. He then...in a post to me on the same page you apologized (for what I don't know)...he accused you of ridicule of him and "personal attacks." You had not said one word to him since that post...and really had not said anything cross to him in the whole thread. The spat you had where I chimed in was b/w you and Starburst....not you and him. All you had done was ask him questions about where he was getting his ideas.

I say this in case those who don't want to take the time to go back and read how all this unfolded. Sevenleft was the one who set him off by accusing him of guessing (oh my)....and somehow...Aric got lumped in...which I have yet to figure out.

Frankly...BB owes YOU and apology...because while he sits here and types about not attacking others...when he attacked first with a false acusation. I find that interesting.

What kind of post is this?? Why are you keeping this going?
Who gives a crap??

If you dont give a crap, then why did you jump in??????????

[Regit]

The topic of this thread is potential tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico. Please return the discussion to the topic at hand.

[DrewFL]

The topic of this thread is potential tropical formation in the Gulf of Mexico. Please return the discussion to the topic at hand.

I don't give a crap....and thank you for jumping in. This is stupid.

[DrewFL]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1240 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

MODEL TRENDS...

...TROF AMPLIFYING ALONG E COAST...
NAM HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH S/WV ENERGY INJECTING INTO TROF FROM
THE TN VALLEY LATE D1...NO LONGER SETTING UP THE PRONOUNCED
DUMBELLING EFFECT WITH IMPULSE SLIDING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS D2. AS A RESULT...RESULTANT MID LEVEL VORTEX TRACKS
FARTHER E...ACROSS SRN GA BY EARLY D3. GFS HAS TRENDED WWD AND
WEAKER WITH IMPULSE SETTLING DOWN SPINE OF APPALACHIANS INTO GA
EARLY D3.

[DrewFL]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL


NOW IS
WHERE THE DIFFERENCES IN OPINION SHOW THEIR UGLY HEADS. THE GFS IS
CONTINUING ITS TREND OF SHOWING MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINNING TO
EXTEND NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ALLOWING THE TROUGH
AXIS TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST. THE PAST FEW RUNS HAVE EVEN INDICATED A CUT
OFF LOW FORMING OVER THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY AND DRIFTING TO THE
GEORGIA COAST BY THURSDAY.

IT ALSO DEVELOPS THE CUT OFF LOW AND MOVES IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULFMEX WITH EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOWERING OF 50H BUT
ALSO DEVELOPS A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE CENT CARIBBEAN WHICH WOULD
PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD S FLA. THIS DOES NOT SEEM VERY
PLIABLE AND HAVE OPTED TO IGNORE THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW.

[DrewFL]

There's a lot of spurios lows being tossed around by the models....take your pick!

[DrewFL]

Right....Jacksonville.....a real hotbed of hurricane strikes! LOL!

[Extremeweatherguy]

what? Jacksonville?

[Regit]

Everyone needs to cool down a bit. For now, this thread is locked.