NHC News Item

[Aric Dunn]

lol .. i think its the boredom.. they have noting to do so they are turning into a pack of dogs (ruf ruf):) I think if we had a big hurricane that was all threatening .. that they would be able to work things out.. right now they are all down there doing what we are.. scanning the ocean for whatever we can find.. but there is nothing there lOL j/K

[Steve Cosby]

they need to go find stewart and make him the director... that would be the best... he and jack are two of the guys there we talk to quite a bit.. well, with the conference and the news articles today about verbal abuse from bill, i think it is pretty much more that qs.... they pretty much laid it out... he dont listen to them, dont respect them... so on and so on.. not saying thats the truth or all the facts, but, thats what i am listening too.

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Bastardi said the other day Stacy Stewart is in the middle east with the military.

[n7ekg]

I think these guys all need to grow the **** up and stop acting like a bunch of teenage little boys full of testosterone standing around arguing over who's bigger... sheesh...

Myself, I'm looking for some action ... but there's nothing there! For crying out loud, it's almost the middle of July and there's nothing out there ... C'mon, just a little storm - a bit of circulation, a well-defined eyewall, and a bit of rain ... is that too much to ask... nothing that will kill anyone, just stay out at sea and look gorgeous for the satellites...

[x-y-no]

Bastardi said the other day Stacy Stewart is in the middle east with the military.

Yeah, we had a thread about that back in May:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=94793&p=1545240&hilit=Stacy+Stewart#p1545240

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Disclaimer: The following does NOT
refer to an ACTUAL hurricane.

SYMBOLIC Post:
Powerful Category 5 Hurricane Argument continues
to churn towards the National Hurricane Center

As of 1 PM, Hurricane Argument had maximum sustained
winds of 165 mph with a barometric pressure
of 900 mb. Hurricane Argument is a Category 5
Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

Bill Proenza's hot water he stands in continues
to fuel this big hurricane.

Atmospheric conditions and social conditions continue
to support Major Hurricane Argument, which has been
pummeling the National Hurricane Center for Several
Weeks now. As of right now, there appears
to be very little in the environment that
would result in significant weakening of Hurricane
Argument. Hurricane Argument has maximum
sustained winds of 165 mph, and is a Strong Category
5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.
Given the very hot water that Bill Proenza
is standing in, Hurricane Argument could stregthen
further. Landfall of Hurricane Argument
is expected at the National Hurricane Center.

[Scott_inVA]

Hmmm...seems everyone is in on the hurricane metaphors and analogy's

If interested, here's mine (although it is not intended to be humorous):

http://www.midatlanticwx.com/blog.htm


Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[Berwick Bay]

Yes Scott, analogies and metaphors. I posted my metaphoric view of this over in the Off Topic Forum earlier this afternoon. There's really not much left to say now. Just waiting for the inevitable.

[wxmann_91]

The Hurricane Center Revolution is my metaphor. Get ready for.... THE TERROR (those who have studied French history should know what I'm saying). Anarchy shall ensue and NHC forecasters will be in cut throat competition, following the overthrow of the current Direction Proenza. Those in favor of the Director will be purged, fired from the Center. Following that, moderate Directorians will be purged, and in the end, only the most radical anti-Directorians will remain. A war will begin waging over the Center, the other NOAA agencies, and the Government of the U.S. At last a Dictator will rise and purge the radical forecasters, and a new staff, loyal to him and him only, shall replace those who were fired. Then the Center shall take over all weather agencies, and yet another major purge will occur as only those loyal to him will remain.
























just kidding.

[Coredesat]

The Hurricane Center Revolution is my metaphor. Get ready for.... THE TERROR (those who have studied French history should know what I'm saying). Anarchy shall ensue and NHC forecasters will be in cut throat competition, following the overthrow of the current Direction Proenza. Those in favor of the Director will be purged, fired from the Center. Following that, moderate Directorians will be purged, and in the end, only the most radical anti-Directorians will remain. A war will begin waging over the Center, the other NOAA agencies, and the Government of the U.S. At last a Dictator will rise and purge the radical forecasters, and a new staff, loyal to him and him only, shall replace those who were fired. Then the Center shall take over all weather agencies, and yet another major purge will occur as only those loyal to him will remain.

Just what we need: Napoleon.

[Downdraft]

I find the whole thing to be rather sickening and sad. But, I'm sorry to say and here comes the bashing that it's indicative of what our present government has become. My personal recommendation would be to show Proenza the door and let Ed run it for the season. Then take a reasonable amount of time to find a director everyone can work with. The reason Ed didn't want the job this time was the tremendous amount of time in the post and pre-season's the director is away doing PR work. The other problem they have down there is after 2004 and 2005 the group has bonded to closely. Small wonder considering what they have gone through together but very difficult for an outsider to take over and lead. Maybe it's time some of them took up winter forecasting in Minot. Franklin's interview serves little purpose as I see it. He (they) presented their issues to the auditing party and he should have let it go at that. While the public may think this little soap opera is funny I can assure the emergency management community does not!

[Steve Cosby]

...it's indicative of what our present government has become...

How does this degenerate into politics?

You know what this actually sounds like? The infighting that has been going on at the national laboratories. And, guess what? That dates back to before the current government.

Scientists are just difficult to deal with.

[Aslkahuna]

Proenza made one fatal mistake-he dumped on NOAA and subsequently lost the support of his higher ups which he sorely needs. This gave the forecasters who are really running the show all they needed to rebel against his trying to make everyone sing the same tune. So now you have some of the Inmates running the Asylum and the others out in the cold and probably being ostracized. It can only end in chaos and a bunch of people in the same office hating each other-a situation that is not good. If I were Rappaport, I would decline to take over and appoint one of the Ruling Four and let them face the anger, resentment, wrath and desire to undercut from those not in the clique. One possible outcome of all this is that NHC could really fall flat on its face in a serious situation and then there would really be Hell to pay. The Best thing that could happen to NHC is that NOAA appoints an even meaner asshole to be Director to replace Proenza because to give in to a ruling clique that staged a Palace Revolt would be akin to handing OBL the keys to the White House.

Steve

[Toadstool]

Proenza made one fatal mistake-he dumped on NOAA and subsequently lost the support of his higher ups which he sorely needs. This gave the forecasters who are really running the show all they needed to rebel against his trying to make everyone sing the same tune. So now you have some of the Inmates running the Asylum and the others out in the cold and probably being ostracized. It can only end in chaos and a bunch of people in the same office hating each other-a situation that is not good. If I were Rappaport, I would decline to take over and appoint one of the Ruling Four and let them face the anger, resentment, wrath and desire to undercut from those not in the clique. One possible outcome of all this is that NHC could really fall flat on its face in a serious situation and then there would really be Hell to pay. The Best thing that could happen to NHC is that NOAA appoints an even meaner asshole to be Director to replace Proenza because to give in to a ruling clique that staged a Palace Revolt would be akin to handing OBL the keys to the White House.

Steve

I definitely agree (though I wouldn't take it as far as likening the forecasters to Osama bin Laden). They need to appoint someone even tougher than Proenza to prevent a bad precedent from being set.

[benny]

Proenza made one fatal mistake-he dumped on NOAA and subsequently lost the support of his higher ups which he sorely needs. This gave the forecasters who are really running the show all they needed to rebel against his trying to make everyone sing the same tune. So now you have some of the Inmates running the Asylum and the others out in the cold and probably being ostracized. It can only end in chaos and a bunch of people in the same office hating each other-a situation that is not good. If I were Rappaport, I would decline to take over and appoint one of the Ruling Four and let them face the anger, resentment, wrath and desire to undercut from those not in the clique. One possible outcome of all this is that NHC could really fall flat on its face in a serious situation and then there would really be Hell to pay. The Best thing that could happen to NHC is that NOAA appoints an even meaner asshole to be Director to replace Proenza because to give in to a ruling clique that staged a Palace Revolt would be akin to handing OBL the keys to the White House.

Steve

A ruling clique? Did you really just compare the hurricane forecasters to OBL? For shame. You win the award for the worst analogy ever and owe the specialists an apology.

[vacanechaser]

they need to go find stewart and make him the director... that would be the best... he and jack are two of the guys there we talk to quite a bit.. well, with the conference and the news articles today about verbal abuse from bill, i think it is pretty much more that qs.... they pretty much laid it out... he dont listen to them, dont respect them... so on and so on.. not saying thats the truth or all the facts, but, thats what i am listening too.

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Bastardi said the other day Stacy Stewart is in the middle east with the military.

yes i know... he has been for sometime... still, he would be the man for the job..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Scott_inVA]

Proenza made one fatal mistake-he dumped on NOAA and subsequently lost the support of his higher ups which he sorely needs. This gave the forecasters who are really running the show all they needed to rebel against his trying to make everyone sing the same tune. So now you have some of the Inmates running the Asylum and the others out in the cold and probably being ostracized. It can only end in chaos and a bunch of people in the same office hating each other-a situation that is not good. If I were Rappaport, I would decline to take over and appoint one of the Ruling Four and let them face the anger, resentment, wrath and desire to undercut from those not in the clique. One possible outcome of all this is that NHC could really fall flat on its face in a serious situation and then there would really be Hell to pay. The Best thing that could happen to NHC is that NOAA appoints an even meaner asshole to be Director to replace Proenza because to give in to a ruling clique that staged a Palace Revolt would be akin to handing OBL the keys to the White House.

Steve

Overall, I'd agree with Steve but only to a point. Bill Proenza is/was a bad hire, or he was given marching orders by NOAA to be The New Sheriff in Town, only to shoot the hand that gave him the badge. Bad move in or out of the public sector.

There is every appearance of a Ruling Clique at the NHC however no one enjoys having a "superior" impugn their professional abilities. Another bad move on his part. Before simply finding a meaner a'hole as Steve suggests, one might first consider why there was such an adverse reaction (not just from the mighty senior forecasters) to Proenza from the start. Wasn't that way in the past.

Of all the venom spewed thus far, Avila's comments were most telling. Elsewhere in this thread he is quoted as saying to the effect that no one asked him before, so don't ask him now...and...Proenza hasn't done a hurricane forecast since the 60's. Clearly, and here I veer away from Steve, the raw nerve is exposed. These forecasters do not want to take orders from a hack they do not respect. One may not like the attitude, but the NHC isn't the only place that operates in this manner. Happens in the military all the time. I'm a Yankees fan and say next year Joe Torre is out and some new guy is named Manager despite a lack of understanding the organization and culture. Suppose in Spring Training he starts ripping Jeter or A-Rod on ESPN. Think he has their respect and they will listen to what he barks? Ain't gonna happen; just going to poison the locker room.

Can't see Ed taking the job unless he knows he'll be supported from above and below and is willing to do a one year gig. Don't think any senior forecaster has sufficient management experience (they're scientists!) or can handle the PR that comes with the job. Stacy maybe but he isn't there. So this may be an extremely difficult position to fill.

Scientists live within a temperamental, kid glove, KMA closed society. Demeaning A'holes are not going to fix it. If NOAA so chose, they can ask for resignations tomorrow from every Senior Forecaster (but will not). I've never been a TPC/NHC shill, but NOAA and Proenza have FUBAR'd this place and they need to focus on his replacement and getting the inmates back in their chairs, doing their jobs with their mouths shut.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[Aslkahuna]

I do not owe the hurricane specialists anything as their actions have been unprofessional and given NHC and to some extent the whole Met Community (of which NHC is one of the most visible parts of) a black eye.

One thing that has come to bother me-we all know that Proenza was given a Letter of Admonishment-the publication of which in the Press was most likely the signal for the Palace Revolt to take place (since they knew that he had no support upstairs). Now, I don't know how many here have been Civil Service Supervisors, but I can tell you that the issuing of such a letter and the establishment of a UIF in an employee's Personnel File is supposed to be a very confidential matter and is subject to Privacy Act protection. Even the mere EXISTENCE of such a letter is restricted to a very few (which unfortunately would include a Secretary in various offices) and is itself supposed to be Privacy Act protected. Now the press claims they got the text through a FOIA request (which could have been turned down on Privacy Grounds) and let no one accuse me of thinking that the Press would ever lie on a matter like this so the question is; how did they find out about the existence of the Letter? Something stinks. Now if it was leaked by someone gaining illegal access to the letter then Proenza can file criminal and civil sanctions against any and all responsible for giving confidential personal information to the Press. OTOH once out of PublicService, he can make life miserable for a lot of people by some scathing attacks which he will no longer be prohibited from making.

Steve

[benny]

I do not owe the hurricane specialists anything as their actions have been unprofessional and given NHC and to some extent the whole Met Community (of which NHC is one of the most visible parts of) a black eye.

One thing that has come to bother me-we all know that Proenza was given a Letter of Admonishment-the publication of which in the Press was most likely the signal for the Palace Revolt to take place (since they knew that he had no support upstairs). Now, I don't know how many here have been Civil Service Supervisors, but I can tell you that the issuing of such a letter and the establishment of a UIF in an employee's Personnel File is supposed to be a very confidential matter and is subject to Privacy Act protection. Even the mere EXISTENCE of such a letter is restricted to a very few (which unfortunately would include a Secretary in various offices) and is itself supposed to be Privacy Act protected. Now the press claims they got the text through a FOIA request (which could have been turned down on Privacy Grounds) and let no one accuse me of thinking that the Press would ever lie on a matter like this so the question is; how did they find out about the existence of the Letter? Something stinks. Now if it was leaked by someone gaining illegal access to the letter then Proenza can file criminal and civil sanctions against any and all responsible for giving confidential personal information to the Press. OTOH once out of PublicService, he can make life miserable for a lot of people by some scathing attacks which he will no longer be prohibited from making.

Steve

Let's try a different tack--who would have known about the letter? I would claim the most likely person to have released the reprimand was Bill Proenza himself, not a member of his staff. Why you ask? Well let's look at it from his perspective:

1) Bill had fought all of his battles in the media so far. He had wide-ranging support from the media and the general public on all of the issues that he had brought up. Why not fight his reprimand in the press? It seems just like his style. I think that it is most likely that he externalized internal problems. Why would the staff be so quick to release the letter? It obviously wasn't because he was well-liked by the staff, or that it would be to their advantage somehow to let the press know.

2) Now the letter is in the press. If I recall-- one news article says that the staff was angered or enraged or something to that effect, plus I believe it said that he had the staff's support. In effect, the staff had no voice and all the general public saw was Bill's perspective on the issues. Maybe that played a part in their decision to go public.

3) This article has a lot of revealing information:
http://www.miamiherald.com/548/story/163179.html

People on the staff don't want to meet with him in person because they are afraid of their remarks being distorted? What is that about? What could have happened to make Rick Knabb say that? Why do most of the specialists disagree with him on QuikScat? It seems there are serious issues with personal integrity and scientific values going on here. Bill Proenza sounds like a politician, not like a neutral scientist like other directors... Either way, I hope a resolution comes soon to solve this mess. I also totally think your comment comparing the specialists to OBL is way out of line, alleged "unprofessionalism" is nothing like terrorism.

[Scott_inVA]

I do not owe the hurricane specialists anything as their actions have been unprofessional and given NHC and to some extent the whole Met Community (of which NHC is one of the most visible parts of) a black eye.

One thing that has come to bother me-we all know that Proenza was given a Letter of Admonishment-the publication of which in the Press was most likely the signal for the Palace Revolt to take place (since they knew that he had no support upstairs). Now, I don't know how many here have been Civil Service Supervisors, but I can tell you that the issuing of such a letter and the establishment of a UIF in an employee's Personnel File is supposed to be a very confidential matter and is subject to Privacy Act protection. Even the mere EXISTENCE of such a letter is restricted to a very few (which unfortunately would include a Secretary in various offices) and is itself supposed to be Privacy Act protected. Now the press claims they got the text through a FOIA request (which could have been turned down on Privacy Grounds) and let no one accuse me of thinking that the Press would ever lie on a matter like this so the question is; how did they find out about the existence of the Letter? Something stinks. Now if it was leaked by someone gaining illegal access to the letter then Proenza can file criminal and civil sanctions against any and all responsible for giving confidential personal information to the Press. OTOH once out of PublicService, he can make life miserable for a lot of people by some scathing attacks which he will no longer be prohibited from making.

Steve

Steve,

While recognizing you're not a charter member of the NHC fan club a couple comments are warranted:

1. Absent proof of who "leaked" or otherwise manipulated around the FOIA, speculative finger-pointing is inappropriate.

2. When he is gone, let him sue.

3. Sure, he can be a "Brownie" and attack as a jilted outsider. If that is the route he chooses, he, just like Brown, he will be perceived as an incompetent, malcontent hack. Maybe Joel is printing business cards for him up in PA.

4. Frankly, I don't give a crap about the eye condition of the Met community. But I (and several Emergency Management Offices) am growing damn concerned Bubba Six-pack will have a 'cane party when a major Cat is out there b/c he heard the NHC is a collection of clueless dopes who know squat. It'll happen if NOAA and the NHC don't fix this fast. And Proenza's protestations will do nothing but make things worse.


I have been told and believe the Mods know that there are people at NHC/HRD who at least visit this board. They would be well advised to let those up in the rarified air know that this bull$hit brought on by both sides is taking a terrible toll on the public's confidence of the Hurricane Center. NOAA, Proenza and Franklin with his minions need to comprehend they now have zero, zip, nada margin of error this season. The NHC had little wiggle room after 04 and 05...now they have none. If that worries them, let 'em look in a mirror.
But, unless we want to blow up the whole thing and start over, TPC/NHC is the best the public has (sorry Steve) and if even a slight percentage more of the public disregards them we will have far more serious problems than bruised egos and black eyes.

Scott
Mid-Atlantic WX.com
Lexington, VA

[Aslkahuna]

You're right, there is no wriggle room. Even more so when the forecasters from a certain private concern get into their stride this season. But the question I was pointing out was how a very personal confidential and Privacy Act protected document wound up in the Press. Ah well, you guys (EM people) are going to have it rough this season. I'm glad I'm retired. I guess I come across a little harsh but this situation is not what we need at this point in time and is a bunch of BS from all involved. Proenza is out for sure and heaven help the interim Director.

Benny, if Proenza were the source of the letter, then he was just plain stupid because anyone could see what such a move would result in if one were already having difficulites with the staff. Problem is now what with what's been happening this week the IG report due out on the 20th will probably not attract much interest.

Steve