Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[boca]

96L has to move due west for it to survive. The dry air is just 50 miles to the north of it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[Normandy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

Dry air still persists, environment is not getting any more moist. This picture has looked like this since it became an invest. Until it changes, wont be nothing more than a naked LLC that fires convection every now and then.

[NDG]

If the circulation can survive the dry stable environment that is in right now and then the forecasted higher windshear near the eastern Caribbean, once it gets to the Central and Western Caribbean we might really see Chantal come to reallity and strengthen if the models are correct in windshear decreasing by then.

[philnyc]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

Dry air still persists, environment is not getting any more moist. This picture has looked like this since it became an invest. Until it changes, wont be nothing more than a naked LLC that fires convection every now and then.

Keep in mind these images will keep updating, so there's a limited shelf life for this discussion.
Look at the mid level moisture from CIMSS -6 hours:


and then the latest:


It appears the mid level environment north of it is moistening up now.

BTW, here is the low that became Hurricane Isaac last year. It went for many days like this until it hit a more favorable environment and then became a hurricane off the east coast.


I'd still have to bet against this one if I were a bettin' man, but this is moving into a more favorable environment Thursday and Friday.

[Aric Dunn]

moisture is on the increase from the east..

[Normandy]

^Those two images a virtually identical, and the progession of moist air is minimal at best. The circulation is continuing to ingest dry air into its core (or lack thereof) and won't flourish until it gets in a much more moist environment (One where there isnt a big glob of orange over the center when looking at it on WV).

And even if it survives, whats it gonna do when it encounters the high shear as a naked swirl? System really has little chance to do anything. And as far as the Isaac comparison, when have you ever seen this system produce cloudtops that cool? Never.

[Normandy]

And on another note, this thing might not even make it to the carribean...it can't gain lattitude because its so weak..it might be a close call as far as interaction with SA.

[philnyc]

^Those two images a virtually identical, and the progession of moist air is minimal at best. The circulation is continuing to ingest dry air into its core (or lack thereof) and won't flourish until it gets in a much more moist environment (One where there isnt a big glob of orange over the center when looking at it on WV).

And even if it survives, whats it gonna do when it encounters the high shear as a naked swirl? System really has little chance to do anything. And as far as the Isaac comparison, when have you ever seen this system produce cloudtops that cool? Never.

Did you see that I said if I were a bettin' man, I'd bet against it?

[MGC]

The only chance 96L has is to get over some warmer waters and for the shear ahead of it to relax.....Oh and for the atmosphere to moisten up a bit. 96L is on life support tonight.....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

i have a hunch.. take a look at those images.. that were posted up there ,, I do believe .. (but still need to look around) if you look just north of the circulation.. you can see i what appears to be a mid level low... .. its making a little sense .. now,.. earlier in the day.. there was some brief northerly mid level shear.. which again makes sense because it would have been on the SW side of that mid level low.. since then it is now south and Se of that feature... and to add the that.. when it was on the Sw side the mid level feature was pumping more dry air down into the system that maybe why we lost nearly all the convection this morning... but now since it has moved by the flow around it would be more southerly.. hence the increase (small) in convection and moisture.... and since the mid level flow is moving west at a a slightly faster pase the moisture to its east does appear to catching up ..

with that said .. either way if we dont see more convection then the LLC will begin to lose some energy needed to stay togehter.. and we would see it wined down.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... java5.html
omit all but the last 6 to 10 images..

[Aric Dunn]

you can clearly see a what appears to be a mid level feature that is starting to pass it bye and behind it would be a slightly more moist environment.. i wish i had some recent microwave passes to post .. showing the dew point and mid level moisture..

although i may be blind..

[wxman57]

LOL i think the Center reformed a little to the south .. thats funny..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html


wxman57 whats you take on that... its looks like it has.. not much but it did i believe..

It appears that the LLC is expanding into a big ring about 40nm across as of 11pm. That's indicative of weakening, as the bigger the center the harder it'll be to regenerate. Chance of development is only slight. I take the NHC's statement about the possibility of development to mean a few percent chance, probably 5% or less.

['CaneFreak]

LOL...interesting comments Aric...it would make sense...hmmm...

[deltadog03]

bye bye!

[KatDaddy]

Its still quite early in season which is nothing new. I see a more W movement with a weak system. Perhaps the NW Caribbean will bring more convection. Time will tell.

[Aric Dunn]

Its still quite early in season which is nothing new. I see a more W movement with a weak system. Perhaps the NW Caribbean will bring more convection. Time will tell.

Time is All we have

[Aric Dunn]

oh.. whats that.. those are the first showers i have seen on the north side of the circulation yet!!! well in more than 24 hrs anyway .. lol





http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[cheezyWXguy]

LOL i think the Center reformed a little to the south .. thats funny..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html


wxman57 whats you take on that... its looks like it has.. not much but it did i believe..

It appears that the LLC is expanding into a big ring about 40nm across as of 11pm. That's indicative of weakening, as the bigger the center the harder it'll be to regenerate. Chance of development is only slight. I take the NHC's statement about the possibility of development to mean a few percent chance, probably 5% or less.

Im not sure Id take that guess yet...I believe it was either you or Derek Ortt that said its nearly impossible to determine a LLCon IR satelite...I dont think we can do anything about pinpointing the LLC at this time and we need to wait for the visible satelite imagery tomorrow before anything is for sure

[tailgater]

LOL i think the Center reformed a little to the south .. thats funny..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html


wxman57 whats you take on that... its looks like it has.. not much but it did i believe..

It appears that the LLC is expanding into a big ring about 40nm across as of 11pm. That's indicative of weakening, as the bigger the center the harder it'll be to regenerate. Chance of development is only slight. I take the NHC's statement about the possibility of development to mean a few percent chance, probably 5% or less.

I think it's going annular.
DREZEE said earlier Based on the trends of the last three days, it should begine to fire convection within the next hour or two and peak around 2-4 amEST.
Me thinks it still stuck on ITCZ, notice little to no inflow from south and SE. Oh yeah that a joke about annular.

[Chacor]

TC Marine graphic no longer shows TC activity within 48 hours, and TCFA cancelled.