Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[Berwick Bay]

WXMAN 57 wrote
Actually, a WNW track from 14N/66W would take it to the southern Yucatan. The activity near the NE Yucatan is associated with the upper low/trof. It won't be able to maintain itself as the wave axis moves west.


Actually no, WXMAN. From your points given above, a true WNW would bring the system twice as far west as north. For example 7 clicks to the N and 14 clicks to the W. If you start at the points which you gave you than get a position of about 21N (thats 7 clicks) and 80W (thats 14 clicks), which is amazingly close to my forecast point of 21N and 79W. Thats for true WNW. Now I know that sometimes a system is moving slightly W of WNW or slightly N or WNW. But that is assuming WNW as the NHC has posted it.

[superg77]

like OMG .. this is so COOL......... i want to be that cool.....i live at the bottom of the ocean..
its so fun watching from down here ...

lets go play with the fish... and or sea creatures..

ok SpongeAric SquarePants

[Aric Dunn]

like OMG .. this is so COOL......... i want to be that cool.....i live at the bottom of the ocean..
its so fun watching from down here ...

lets go play with the fish... and or sea creatures..

You OK, Aric?

yeah .. im going loppy.. watching .. all the loops... since they are not doing anything important.... loopity loopity.. loops.. wwwoooooo...... up and down.. left and right.. flare up flare down... outflow boundry here and there.. ... oh wait this .. nevermind..

[Aric Dunn]

like OMG .. this is so COOL......... i want to be that cool.....i live at the bottom of the ocean..
its so fun watching from down here ...

lets go play with the fish... and or sea creatures..

ok SpongeAric SquarePants

lets sit on top of the mountains in Hispaniola.. only 10,000 feet and watch the clouds from there ... instead of the satellite loops.. maybe be a better view

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Looks alot like Ernesto from last year....to me the mess is already gaining some lattitude. That ULL to the north is causing this....I am going to lean towards the CMC and project this mess to move NW and IF something develops move NW then North out to sea with the approaching trouch...I doubt anything will move West across the Caribbean at this time....

[Aric Dunn]

wait the LLC (invisible) has just reformed .. in two place at one..... north of PR and South... we are going to have a cat 7.. ..... i remember ernesto.. it was loopy too... but not like this loop...


i have a question ... who likes loops..??

[Aric Dunn]

i figured it out... see everyone is right...

because... it will go north and west and the same time... so you see everyone is right..

part if the wave is south and part is north.. but there both moving north and west... so which way will they go George......
.
and everyone is right .. because at this point... there really is nothing that important.. so everyone;s (guess or educated guess ) is just as good as the next person.... loop loop

[CourierPR]

Aric, I like fruit loops cereal. Does that count?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, I like fruit loops cereal. Does that count?

yep .. yeah

right on .. brother..

[Berwick Bay]

Aric, speaking of two places at once, there was some conversation earlier today about a possibility of a split in energy, with some pulled to the north near the ULL and the rest remaining with the actual wave axis in the south (thus two areas to watch). This sort of thing has happened before. But my best bet for development (if there is to be any) is further south with the wave axis in the Carib, south of central Cuba.

[vaffie]

Down to 1011.4 mb.

19/23 42059 15.0 -67.5 27.4 23.6 040 12 G 14 030 14 1011.4 -1.0 28.6 1.5 7 42059

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, speaking of two places at once, there was some conversation earlier today about a possibility of a split in energy, with some pulled to the north near the ULL and the rest remaining with the actual wave axis in the south (thus two areas to watch). This sort of thing has happened before. But my best bet for development (if there is to be any) is further south with the wave axis in the Carib, south of central Cuba.

lol ...


loopy looppy.... we have the phantom of the opera ... in here one side it black and the other side is white... hence the energy... everywhere..

anyway,, back to reality.,.. umm... there is not actually anything anywhere.,. we and a tropical wave... north of PR down to the northern part of south america.. thats it.. noting else ... not two separate things just that..

but .ok

[windstorm99]

NHC-8:05PM Discussion...

STRONG EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W/67W IS BECOMING
ACTIVE WITH NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...ST MAARTEN AND
ANGUILLA. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN 2-3 MB OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT WINDWARD ISLANDS AND
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING AND BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED WITH TIME. IN ADDITION SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 61W-66W.

CLICK FOR LARGE IR ANIMATED VIEW

[Recurve]

Or for you Florida people, this tropical wave will track towards Lake Okechobee!

Regardless of someone's qualifications, you can automatically sense their level of objectivity by reading where they are from...whether consciously or subconsciously, Florida, Carolina, and Gulf Coast people tend to wishcast storms into their area...most, not all.

NO NO NO. No thanks. Not -removed- anything here. No Ernesto-like tracks please. That thing, weak as it was, went right overhead. Also don't need a Floyd scaring the bejeezus out of south florida.

I'm not forecasting even development at this point, just that a LLC if it forms I though would be more likely around 15N-65W than up by that ULL to the north.

Aric, you sounded drunk there. Posting while drinking can get you busted in this state.

[Edited to correct longitude]

[wxman57]

WXMAN 57 wrote
Actually, a WNW track from 14N/66W would take it to the southern Yucatan. The activity near the NE Yucatan is associated with the upper low/trof. It won't be able to maintain itself as the wave axis moves west.


Actually no, WXMAN. From your points given above, a true WNW would bring the system twice as far west as north. For example 7 clicks to the N and 14 clicks to the W. If you start at the points which you gave you than get a position of about 21N (thats 7 clicks) and 80W (thats 14 clicks), which is amazingly close to my forecast point of 21N and 79W. Thats for true WNW. Now I know that sometimes a system is moving slightly W of WNW or slightly N or WNW. But that is assuming WNW as the NHC has posted it.

Actually, a track toward 285 degrees from 14N/66W hits the Yucatan just north of Belize. I'm running GARP with my cursor on 14N/66W. When I move the cursor to just north of Belize, it reads a compass heading of 285 degrees.

[Aric Dunn]

WXMAN 57 wrote
Actually, a WNW track from 14N/66W would take it to the southern Yucatan. The activity near the NE Yucatan is associated with the upper low/trof. It won't be able to maintain itself as the wave axis moves west.


Actually no, WXMAN. From your points given above, a true WNW would bring the system twice as far west as north. For example 7 clicks to the N and 14 clicks to the W. If you start at the points which you gave you than get a position of about 21N (thats 7 clicks) and 80W (thats 14 clicks), which is amazingly close to my forecast point of 21N and 79W. Thats for true WNW. Now I know that sometimes a system is moving slightly W of WNW or slightly N or WNW. But that is assuming WNW as the NHC has posted it.

Actually, a track toward 285 degrees from 14N/66W hits the Yucatan just north of Belize. I'm running GARP with my cursor on 14N/66W. When I move the cursor to just north of Belize, it reads a compass heading of 285 degrees.

hey guess what... loopy..

[Recurve]

I guess that's the world according to GARP?

[Aric Dunn]

I guess that's the world according to GARP?

yeah .. that it would be.. its way more accurate.. then EYEBALLING IT

[windstorm99]

According to the NHC pressures continue to fall and outflow is becoming better defined per the 8:05pm discussion i posted above.

[DESTRUCTION5]

According to the NHC pressures continue to fall and outflow is becoming better defined per the 8:05pm discussion i posted above.

Its Invest TIme people..No questions asked...Prob by Morning