99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

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lrak
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#261 Postby lrak » Sat Aug 04, 2007 9:58 am

By ONLY "ocular analysis" it looks like another piece of this is moving north.



http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#262 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 04, 2007 10:03 am

It's fully in an EPAC flow.

No doubt this one was getting it together today if it stayed over water.
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#263 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 04, 2007 10:09 am

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 4, 2007

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The strong tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea became a
little better organized earlier today...but since the wave has
moved over Central America...further development is no longer
anticipated. Showers and gusty winds should continue to spread
over portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula today
and Sunday.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$

Forecaster Avila

Close the casket and bury it!! It's over.
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#264 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 04, 2007 10:14 am

its just too bad ..... it never slowed down enough ... :( i have n doubt that it would have been a TD this morning had it slowed enough to stay offshore or had it just moved far enough north


NEXT.... very very large wave east of the antillies and LOW coming of SC are the next things to watch
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#265 Postby tailgater » Sat Aug 04, 2007 10:23 am

The MLC is riding along the N coast of Honduras.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor2.GIF
The low level vorticity, which there is little of, is inland
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor4.GIF
But the trade winds will lessen a lot today and the Yucatan Peninusla doesn't hinder a developing system much. Upper level enviroment looks decent and looking at the Visible loop this morning there is a pretty sharp wave axis from the Yucatan pass , southward. so I'm still gonna watch it every 3 or 4 hrs.
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#266 Postby alan1961 » Sat Aug 04, 2007 10:36 am

Theres a lot of moisture in this area just east of the Yucatan, just need to watch this a little..something could just pop and sneak through yucatan channel..yes its worth watching :wink:
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#267 Postby lrak » Sat Aug 04, 2007 11:10 am

how bout we stick a fork in it and flip it over, spread a little heat and sauce on it. :D
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#268 Postby lrak » Sat Aug 04, 2007 12:26 pm

99L

floater is back up? :double:Image
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#269 Postby ajaxw » Sat Aug 04, 2007 12:52 pm

Actually that floater image is showing the Labrador Sea (you can see eastern Canada outlined, and check the loop for confirmation on lat/lon), probably set to the area when Chantal was whisking off to the northeast. Plus, the image is old, one of the first morning images today.
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#270 Postby punkyg » Sat Aug 04, 2007 1:07 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

sooo sad.

Wait is 99L having a baby in th sw carribean?
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#271 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 04, 2007 2:09 pm

A clear circulation visible today on floater. Heading dead west over Honduras to EPAC.

This baby was really getting it together today. If it stayed over water we had a storm no doubt. Just look at the red ir over the west Caribbean today!
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#272 Postby mgpetre » Sat Aug 04, 2007 2:38 pm

If this thing fires up as soon as it hits the EPAC it could be the longest almost continual invest ever... I've never personally seen a storm get this much attention and never even become a depression (officially.)
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#273 Postby punkyg » Sat Aug 04, 2007 3:11 pm

Image
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#274 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Aug 04, 2007 3:27 pm

That "eye-like" appearence is just a break in the clouds, no rotation, but it does look to have moved mostly offshore. I haven't seen a loop, because I'm running off of dial up right now, so I can be sure.
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#275 Postby El Nino » Sat Aug 04, 2007 3:29 pm

I think we'll have a storm in the EPAC ...
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#276 Postby Cyclone1 » Sat Aug 04, 2007 3:30 pm

El Nino wrote:I think we'll have a storm in the EPAC ...

I don't. If this does continue westward instead of building back up in the Gulf of Honduras, it'll be ripped to shreds by land.
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#277 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 04, 2007 3:35 pm

Ugh... I am so frustrated. Why couldn't it develop a couple of days ago? :grr:

The search for Dean continues... :wall: :wall: :wall:
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#278 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Aug 04, 2007 4:04 pm

The EPAC hasn't been much better. It will probably have to fight like crazy if it makes it there. :x
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#279 Postby harmclan » Sat Aug 04, 2007 4:05 pm

That "eye-like" appearence is just a break in the clouds, no rotation, but it does look to have moved mostly offshore. I haven't seen a loop, because I'm running off of dial up right now, so I can be sure.


Yea it's just a break in the convection. Sat images show convection moving off to the northwest. No rotation.
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

#280 Postby lrak » Sat Aug 04, 2007 4:10 pm

Gulf of Honduras is where the main body looks to be located, why is the EPAC an issue with this disturbance? It looks to me it will cross the Yucatan and the be in the S BOC until Sunday evening when it finally moves ashore.


"ocular analysis forecast for sure dude." 8-) Need just abit of swell to touch SPI.

http://coastalsurfing.com/?page_id=5 :cry:
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