99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions
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- lrak
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions
By ONLY "ocular analysis" it looks like another piece of this is moving north.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions
It's fully in an EPAC flow.
No doubt this one was getting it together today if it stayed over water.
No doubt this one was getting it together today if it stayed over water.
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- HURAKAN
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 4, 2007
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The strong tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea became a
little better organized earlier today...but since the wave has
moved over Central America...further development is no longer
anticipated. Showers and gusty winds should continue to spread
over portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula today
and Sunday.
Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$
Forecaster Avila
Close the casket and bury it!! It's over.
Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on August 4, 2007
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The strong tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea became a
little better organized earlier today...but since the wave has
moved over Central America...further development is no longer
anticipated. Showers and gusty winds should continue to spread
over portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula today
and Sunday.
Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.
$$
Forecaster Avila
Close the casket and bury it!! It's over.
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions
The MLC is riding along the N coast of Honduras.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor2.GIF
The low level vorticity, which there is little of, is inland
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor4.GIF
But the trade winds will lessen a lot today and the Yucatan Peninusla doesn't hinder a developing system much. Upper level enviroment looks decent and looking at the Visible loop this morning there is a pretty sharp wave axis from the Yucatan pass , southward. so I'm still gonna watch it every 3 or 4 hrs.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor2.GIF
The low level vorticity, which there is little of, is inland
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8vor4.GIF
But the trade winds will lessen a lot today and the Yucatan Peninusla doesn't hinder a developing system much. Upper level enviroment looks decent and looking at the Visible loop this morning there is a pretty sharp wave axis from the Yucatan pass , southward. so I'm still gonna watch it every 3 or 4 hrs.
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- alan1961
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions
Theres a lot of moisture in this area just east of the Yucatan, just need to watch this a little..something could just pop and sneak through yucatan channel..yes its worth watching 

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- lrak
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions
how bout we stick a fork in it and flip it over, spread a little heat and sauce on it. 

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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions
Actually that floater image is showing the Labrador Sea (you can see eastern Canada outlined, and check the loop for confirmation on lat/lon), probably set to the area when Chantal was whisking off to the northeast. Plus, the image is old, one of the first morning images today.
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions
A clear circulation visible today on floater. Heading dead west over Honduras to EPAC.
This baby was really getting it together today. If it stayed over water we had a storm no doubt. Just look at the red ir over the west Caribbean today!
This baby was really getting it together today. If it stayed over water we had a storm no doubt. Just look at the red ir over the west Caribbean today!
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions
If this thing fires up as soon as it hits the EPAC it could be the longest almost continual invest ever... I've never personally seen a storm get this much attention and never even become a depression (officially.)
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- El Nino
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions
I think we'll have a storm in the EPAC ...
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions
El Nino wrote:I think we'll have a storm in the EPAC ...
I don't. If this does continue westward instead of building back up in the Gulf of Honduras, it'll be ripped to shreds by land.
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions
Ugh... I am so frustrated. Why couldn't it develop a couple of days ago?
The search for Dean continues...


The search for Dean continues...



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- AnnularCane
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions
The EPAC hasn't been much better. It will probably have to fight like crazy if it makes it there. 

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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions
That "eye-like" appearence is just a break in the clouds, no rotation, but it does look to have moved mostly offshore. I haven't seen a loop, because I'm running off of dial up right now, so I can be sure.
Yea it's just a break in the convection. Sat images show convection moving off to the northwest. No rotation.
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- lrak
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Re: 99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions
Gulf of Honduras is where the main body looks to be located, why is the EPAC an issue with this disturbance? It looks to me it will cross the Yucatan and the be in the S BOC until Sunday evening when it finally moves ashore.
"ocular analysis forecast for sure dude."
Need just abit of swell to touch SPI.
http://coastalsurfing.com/?page_id=5
"ocular analysis forecast for sure dude."

http://coastalsurfing.com/?page_id=5

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