New storm on the horizon??

[jhamps10]

Just looking at the new GFS coming in. Out to 90 hours and there is nothing there- the system seems to dry up as if someone sprinkled alum all over it. So it will just go away?

Yet- the TWO says slow development is possible. I know I am reading too much in to this, but with no global model support (on a robust system or even a real depression for that matter) wouldn't the TWO say "development, if any, is expected to be slow"? We have even seen blobs like this and the NHC will say something like "associated with a tropical wave interacting with an upper level low" and then a line about slow development. Anyhow, just wondering what the deal is. Perhaps, and this is just a plain ole perhaps, this system will be quite small and not as easy to pick out in the global models just yet. Oh well, wait and see. Just vexing as to why the same GFS that nailed Dean like 9 days out it not showing diddly for this.

remember though, the GFS had dean as a TD when in reality it was a cat 4. Also it is doing some rapid development this evening, and all we need to create a major is for it to slow down, thank goodness it will keep on it's speedy track it appears like for now.

[ericinmia]

I see some people saying that "no" global model is suggesting a storm... what about the canadian for the past couple days?

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 12_144.jpg

Plus almost all the models depict it in some form, some models don't have the resolution to show it being closed or open though either.

Also take into account, this thing is JUST starting to become something... if anything at all. Give it a little time. Tue-Wed we will know.

I'm incredibly impressed with this blow-up of convection!
From nothing to something in no time flat.

[HurricaneRobert]

Maybe the models show a weak storm like Tammy, which started developing right there.

[Vortex]

Run the loop(fast animation) thru 345 utc towards the end it appears that some rotation is beginning to take place near 21.5/57. Overall convection continues to increase

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Definitely something to watch. If Felix did form out there, then it would certainly be more of a U.S. threat than Dean is.

[PTPatrick]

Just when I got comfortable with Dean not affecting my trip home to Pascagoula(Tuesday to Friday)...now I have to worry about what this "thing" will become and how it will affect the Tampa leg of my trip(friday to Sunda)...any idea on where this might be in Fri-Sun time frame? I know these things are super uncertain until they get going...but it seems like this might track under the ridge through the keys...far from Tampa. Or will the ridge not hold that long?

[fci]

I'd be very worried about this IF Dean wasn't churning away to its SW. If Dean hadn't formed I'd be astounded about the 1935 - 2007 analogy. But since Dean has drained the basin, even if this one forms it could be kept down by Dean. Who knows?

If Dean wasn't there I'd be thinking repeat of Labor Day storm track.

I don't think Dean would have anything to do with the waters NORTH of Islands. If this were brewing in the Cape Verde area of in the Carib; I would tend to agree but the waters are warm in the Atlantic and rather undisturbed; in my opinion.

ABNT20 KNHC 200318
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DEAN...CENTERED ABOUT 135 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO
25 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Moving at 20-25 and only about 800-1000 miles from Florida translates into 2 days. Pretty close I must say.....

Still; Looking at the models tonight, I still only see the CMC developing something....
Some posts say that other models are picking up on this.
Which ones?
When I run the models from:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

I see nothing from the other models.

If y'all are seeing something from another model; please post it for me!!!

[Category6]

It will have to fight off some sheer from the NW.

[jhamps10]

J.Champs Wrote:
I'll do my best to summarize:

The models over the past few days developed a hurricane that would strike Florida's EC, specifically SFL by next weekend, and we now have a surface low centered SE of the Lesser Antellies, with convection now developing at a pretty good clip. it is heading WNW to NW at I'd guess 18-20 MPH. The question is right now, will it develop into a system? Right now it appears that it will develop, the question is when, and how strong will it get.

That help you out some?

The system that is of concern is NOT SE of the Lesser Antilles, it is NE of the Islands.

I'd be very worried about this IF Dean wasn't churning away to its SW. If Dean hadn't formed I'd be astounded about the 1935 - 2007 analogy. But since Dean has drained the basin, even if this one forms it could be kept down by Dean. Who knows?

If Dean wasn't there I'd be thinking repeat of Labor Day storm track.

I don't think Dean would have anything to do with the waters NORTH of Islands. If this were brewing in the Cape Verde area of in the Carib; I would tend to agree but the waters are warm in the Atlantic and rather undisturbed; in my opinion.

ABNT20 KNHC 200318
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
DEAN...CENTERED ABOUT 135 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO
25 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Moving at 20-25 and only about 800-1000 miles from Florida translates into 2 days. Pretty close I must say.....

Still; Looking at the models tonight, I still only see the CMC developing something....
Some posts say that other models are picking up on this.
Which ones?
When I run the models from:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

I see nothing from the other models.


If y'all are seeing something from another model; please post it for me!!!

Whoops, sorry fci, I corrected the SE to NE.

[vaffie]

Good amount of vorticity already--indications of low-mid level rotation.
Definitely becoming interesting. Think it highly likely that we'll have an invest by Wednesday morning perhaps even tomorrow. Seems to be developing quite rapidly, like some people have said from nothing to something. May have something to do with Dean--suppressing all tropical development in it's vicinity and as it leaves the area in a hurry has created sort of a tropical vacuum so to speak right where this weak wave was--that is now blossoming into a strong disturbance. Wonder where it will go. Between now and 100 hours, it appears that it will be to the west towards Florida. Then at that point, the GFS 500 mb winds become very disorganized and haphazard over much of the Gulf and Florida--perhaps it will drift around for a while, or move north. Anyway, will be interesting to watch.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[PTPatrick]

Looking at the 18z GFDL of Dean you can see something weak going through FL at the end.

[fci]

Looks similar to Danny in 2003 that basically came out of nowhere.

Danny developed north of 30 and just did a loop and died.
And it was in mid-July

I don't really see the similarity unless I am missing something.....

[Category6]

Also, it doesn't seem to be moving as quickly as the NHC says.

[Zardoz]

Also, it doesn't seem to be moving as quickly as the NHC says.

Yes, it does appear to have slowed way down now.

[Vortex]

00z 8/20 CMC beginning to roll in...Here's the 12z on Wednesday just eat of the bahamas

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 95_100.gif

[Vortex]

CMC 12Z on Thursday approaching SE FL

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... 33_100.gif

[jhamps10]

Also, it doesn't seem to be moving as quickly as the NHC says.

Yes, it does appear to have slowed way down now.

indeed it has. This could have something to do with the more rapid nature of the development tonight.

Also should it stay slow like this for a while, then I will honestly say I have no clue what would happen then, but with the favorable conditions, it very well could end up a possible major. but that is WAY, WAY too far down that road for now.

[PTPatrick]

How many days away from Tampa?!!?!!? Can you tell I am concerned?

[jhamps10]

How many days away from Tampa?!!?!!? Can you tell I am concerned?

it would have to take a wierd u-turn from crossing the state to hit tampa right now. anyway 5-9 days a rough estimate.

[Zardoz]

This from AccuWeather, for what it's worth:

Another feature worth watching is a tropical wave that is along 60 west, south of 25 north. An area of blossoming convection is along the northern end of the wave between 20 and 25 north. Some computer model information suggests that the northern part of this wave might become an organized tropical system in the southwest Atlantic in a couple of days.