Strong Wave with low in Eastern Atlantic

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas32.png

Closed LLC at 9 north/30 west...

[windstorm99]

NHC 530AM Outlook on the wave of the african coast....

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

First visible shows where Matt said the low is around 9n-9.5n.

[Thunder44]

Floater 1 on RAMSDIS is on this system:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[Thunder44]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBas32.png

Closed LLC at 9 north/30 west...

It looks very broad and elongated though.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Gustywind]

Looking very nice this morning... but concerning given by Puerto Rico area of discussion,the future path's trend seems that this one will be a fish... should it verifies... GFS models moving it far away the islands...plenty of time to confirmed that!!!

EXTENDED FORECAST OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA...ONCE THE NEXT TROPICAL
WAVE PASSES THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY...THERE ARE NOT OTHER
FEATURES THAT COULD BRING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ACTIVE WX DAYS
ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE ONLY TROPICAL FEATURE THAT COULD
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IS A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED THIS
MORNING NEAR 26/27 WEST. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WNW
AND WAY OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[punkyg]

Amazing this thing really looks like it might develop. i know didn't it had a low.
i think if it can keep most of its convection it would be declared a invest later today.


Hi gusty good morning

[Gustywind]

Good morning punkyg , yeah more convection/ organisation:lol:... and don't forget that i was predicting like you..that we should see maybe an invest this afternoon lool . Whereas given the latest sat pic and overall... why not afterall, we're not so far to see an invest before Monday if if if this trend continues :lol.
Popping very nicely and moist environnement ahead of the system, conditions are improving for this wave... just a very very short pocket of sal can be observed at 38w.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv.jpg

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[punkyg]

Yo gusty you keep talking about sal, but in those links you bring they keep showing dry air. so do you like need a SAL map or something?

today all i wanna see is if convection holds and if it can expand oh and get better organized.

[Gustywind]

dry air excuse me lool

[punkyg]

Well since you like SAL alot heres a link to the page.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... k/sal.html

[Gustywind]

Looking good!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb.jpg
Only dry air, very small gusty!lol
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html
Note further a persitent cluster further east since yesterday
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... et7bbm.jpg

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

AN EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 20N MOVING WEST
NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BROAD ENVELOPE OF
CYCLONIC TURNING. THE FIRST FEW METSAT-9 VISIBLE IMAGES REVEAL A
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. A RECENT
QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING ENE
ALONG 7N38W 9N26W 13N20W. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY NOTED
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 28W-33W...AND ALSO FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
22W-26W. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS

$$
WILLIS

.

LATEST:

[Gustywind]

Should we see an invest tommorow or even this afternoon?

[HURAKAN]

Should we see an invest tommorow or even this afternoon?

Depends how it behaves. Remember that we're in DMAX at the moment and the system is looking a little better. Nonetheless, as we move away from DMAX into DMIN the overall convective envelope of the wave should decrease and may lessen it chances of becoming an invest today. It still has a lot of time in its hands if it wants to develop.

[Gustywind]

Absolutely Hurakan agree with you, time will tell. Seems that the southern side having some good bursting activity...giving this a much more healthier appareance. We could see something interressting given the current trend during the next couple of days

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg
Any one think that the wave might pull up so convection from the ITCZ?
do you guys it will actually be our first fish storm of the year if it develops.
one more question.
do you think that this wave will make past 15n, but then the high builds back in and push this thing back to the west.