2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[blp]

seems as though slowly the GFS is trending towards the EPAC with this system

It does like that way or gets buried in C. America. The 00zCMC now shows the original rotation getting buried in C. America just like the GFS. So at least there is some agreement now on that evolution. Look for the GFS to latch onto the tail of front which happens later on as a possible new area emerging in the NW Carribean.

[SouthFLTropics]

The 00z GEFS from Hour 126 to 384, Western Atlantic and EPac for comparison. It looks like activity picks up in the EPac earlier and then the timeframe for the Caribbean has been moved back. Could this be in relation to the MJO phase or a passing Kelvin Wave?

[ClarCari]

The 00z GEFS from Hour 126 to 384, Western Atlantic and EPac for comparison. It looks like activity picks up in the EPac earlier and then the timeframe for the Caribbean has been moved back. Could this be in relation to the MJO phase or a passing Kelvin Wave?

https://i.imgur.com/WIlF2xZ.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Ohq0eLL.gif

I believe so! The activity is expected to explode around week 2 of October and persist into some of November.
That also should coincide with the cold front tapering off. By the time the Atlantic becomes more favorable again, the cold front and whatever shear and air stability it brings will decrease leading to a pretty “spooky” October setup for development.

As for the EPAC...ehh maybeee another Cat.4 or so major and most likely a storm or two. The models that start switching into the EPAC maybe hinting at another bigger storm going on over there before that season goes dud again lol.

[Kingarabian]

GFS's EPAC activity uptick forecast is likely bogus. I would look for TC development in the W-Caribbean/GOM instead.

[storminabox]

The more interesting thing to me looking at the models is the major cold front both the GFS and Euro show plunging deep into the Gulf and through Florida. Looks like something you would see in late October or November. The GFS seems to think a lot of shear will be over the NW Carib and Gulf should something decide to move north. Of course we all know how that worked out for Sally but this time the Euro is on board with the massive front as well.

https://i.postimg.cc/t4wSJVcM/gfs-T2ma-us-fh120-240.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/PrczQnML/ecmwf-T850a-us-fh120-240.gif

What about that massive front that was posted here constantly after Laura? It wasn't what the GFS kept predicting.

The GFS was basically alone with the front after Laura, not this time though. Other global models are on board. Seems some kind of front is one the way next week. May not necessarily be a good thing though.

Climatology supports it as well. Much more likely to get a front like this in early October than late August.

[abajan]

Let's see if this keeps showing up in the next few runs:

[SFLcane]

EPS is a bit more active overnight with a few moderate tc’s affecting FL.

[SFLcane]

GFS's EPAC activity uptick forecast is likely bogus. I would look for TC development in the W-Caribbean/GOM instead.

It’s favored by the EPS so that makes perfect sense actually to me. We shall see but I bet the GFS will probably drop the bogus tc soon

[SFLcane]

And there you have it! Bogus tc gone from the Atlantic development heavily favored in the Epac. Looking forward to some cool weather next week.

[Shell Mound]

21 Hurricanes have crossed the Yucatan Channel during Oct / Nov(all recorded years).
The majority of these (12, or 57%) have hit Florida. Naples, Cape Coral, and Panama City seem to be climatologically popular.

2018 MICHAEL PANAMA CITY CAT5
2009 IDA PENSACOLA ET
2005 WILMA NAPLES CAT3
1964 ISBELL NAPLES CAT2
1948 UNNAMED KEYS / MIAMI CAT2
1946 UNNAMED TAMPA CAT1
1924 UNNAMED EVERGLADES / MIAMI CAT1
1921 UNNAMED TAMPA CAT3
1910 UNNAMED CAPE CORAL CAT2
1894 UNNAMED PANAMA CITY CAT3
1873 UNNAMED CAPE CORAL CAT3
1852 UNNAMED APALACHICOLA CAT2

https://i.ibb.co/THDLyQr/Capture6.jpg

Note that Ida (2009) was extratropical at landfall. If one excludes Ida and counts the remaining eleven cases, then eight (73%) of the remainder struck the FL peninsula from Tampa Bay southward. So if a hurricane were to pass through the Yucatán Channel during the months of October and/or November, it would be most likely to impact Central and/or South Florida (peninsular) as a hurricane. Based on historical data, Cat-3 status (105 knots) seems to be the uppermost boundary for these cases at landfall, given the influence of strong vertical wind shear related to incoming autumnal troughs, along with relatively cooler SSTs in the Gulf during October/November vs. August/September. So the fact that Central/South Florida has not been impacted by a major hurricane yet is potentially very good news, since most of the region’s Cat-4+ hits have been related to CV-type, MDR-related activity during the peak months of August and September. (The exception, Cat-4 King ‘50, originated in the W Caribbean in October 1950, but actually headed NNW into Miami: an extremely unusual trajectory and location for the month of October.) So if we get a W-Caribbean major hurricane that tracks through the Channel and impacts Central/South FL, it would almost certainly be no stronger than a Cat-3 at landfall, and would more likely be weakening and/or steady-state than a MH impacting the same region in August/September. Again, very good news. Another Wilma would not be pleasant, but certainly much better than a Cat-4+.

[SFLcane]

As soon as it got to 10 days out GFS switched. EPS does indicate a late-season fish MDR storm

[AutoPenalti]

No surprises there.

[aspen]

GFS's EPAC activity uptick forecast is likely bogus. I would look for TC development in the W-Caribbean/GOM instead.

For every 1 Atlantic phantom, there have been multiple EPac phantoms. The GFS and Euro have constantly been way too excited about EPac development, and I assume this is once again the case.

[toad strangler]

Every year at this time this happens with the GFS

[DestinHurricane]

I see GFS has dropped it. Is it now safe to say this potential TC is not happening in the Caribbean or Gulf?

[SFLcane]

I see GFS has dropped it. Is it now safe to say this potential TC is not happening in the Caribbean or Gulf?

Probably not during the next 2 weeks but there will a chance during October conditions favor it as MJO moves in. Then again we have been looking at the Caribbean for development for years now and it doesn’t produce. We shall see

[DestinHurricane]

I see GFS has dropped it. Is it now safe to say this potential TC is not happening in the Caribbean or Gulf?

Probably not during the next 2 weeks but there will a chance during October conditions favor it as MJO moves in. Then again we have been looking at the Caribbean for development for years now and it doesn’t produce. We shall see

The one on models we have been talking about though. Now near 0% chance?

[chris_fit]

GFS ENS
CAN ENS
EURO ENS

All still hinting at something in the W Carib.

[CourierPR]

So if we get a W-Caribbean major hurricane that tracks through the Channel and impacts Central/South FL, it would almost certainly be no stronger than a Cat-3 at landfall, and would more likely be weakening and/or steady-state than a MH impacting the same region in August/September. Again, very good news. Another Wilma would not be pleasant, but certainly much better than a Cat-4+.[/quote]


And you have a degree in meteorology? What you present as "very good news" is your version. I lived through Wilma and spent over a week without electricity here in Southeast Florida. Also, many homes had roofs covered by blue tarps for many months.

[SFLcane]

I see GFS has dropped it. Is it now safe to say this potential TC is not happening in the Caribbean or Gulf?

Probably not during the next 2 weeks but there will a chance during October conditions favor it as MJO moves in. Then again we have been looking at the Caribbean for development for years now and it doesn’t produce. We shall see

The one on models we have been talking about though. Now near 0% chance?

Yep, it seems as we got bit or I should say “ me ”by the gfs phantom fantasy fest yet again. This model clearly for years has bias issues in the western Caribbean developing spurious tc’s. this time of the year for some reason. Until there is real support from other models like EPS inside 7-10 days it’s like nada. Tropics look closed next week or two with no rising motion overhead.