2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Kingarabian]

Due to the most recent MJO pulse moving across the Atlantic, there's quite a bit of westerlies near the equator. Some of that enhanced convergence is migrating north of the equator which is also another reason why the models are beginning to get bullish on future AEW's. This is the first time since June I believe, that westerlies have become this strong in the MDR. This event also happened back in 2017 just before Irma.

[captainbarbossa19]

Due to the most recent MJO pulse moving across the Atlantic, there's quite a bit of westerlies near the equator. Some of that enhanced convergence is migrating north of the equator which is also another reason why the models are beginning to get bullish on future AEW's. This is the first time since June I believe, that westerlies have become this strong in the MDR. This event also happened back in 2017 just before Irma.

https://i.imgur.com/lY0B7ex.png

This season seems very similar to 2017. Even if Laura and 14 do not amount to much anything, I still think that there is going to be a major hurricane very soon. I think that conditions will become very favorable soon. Someone mentioned that conditions often do not become very favorable until after the MJO passes. We shall see.

[Hammy]

Due to the most recent MJO pulse moving across the Atlantic, there's quite a bit of westerlies near the equator. Some of that enhanced convergence is migrating north of the equator which is also another reason why the models are beginning to get bullish on future AEW's. This is the first time since June I believe, that westerlies have become this strong in the MDR. This event also happened back in 2017 just before Irma.

https://i.imgur.com/lY0B7ex.png

Is this what preceded the outbreaks of storms in late August of 1996/99 and Mid-September 1998? I remember Cindy in 1999 seemed like it was already a tropical depression before it even emerged over water and there was a deep low-level westerly flow ahead of it.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1296991011311439873

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1296998329079853057

[toad strangler]

THERE ARE ONLY EIGHT MORE NAMES TO GO BEFORE ALPHA AND THERE ARE TEN DAYS LEFT IN AUGUST

[Hammy]

THERE ARE ONLY EIGHT MORE NAMES TO GO BEFORE ALPHA AND THERE ARE TEN DAYS LEFT IN AUGUST

Kind of amazing to think about. We've had as many storms up to now, as 2019 had after August.

[Shell Mound]

https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1296779979670290432
Does anyone know why this may be the case? Why would see more AWB-type events when most other parameters are conducive?

Bump for response...

[USTropics]

Some more experimental products I've been working on, looking at forecast skill/error. This is for both track and intensity for 2019. Operational models are straight lines, intensity models (HWRF,HMON) in squares, statistical-based models (DSHP/LGEM) in diamonds, consensus models (HCCA, IVCN, TVCN) in circles, and ensembles (FSU Super Ensembles, GFS Ensembles) in triangles.













Data sources:
ATCF
HFIP
THORPEX (TIGGE)

[toad strangler]

Missed this one two days ago....

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1296450666081267712

[Steve]

As many of us have been speculating, it's turning out to be a western-based/biased season so far. Of the 13 named storms, I think 10 of them were west of 70 at one point (Laura will be). 6 or 7 (about half) will have been right along or west of 80 counting Marco and Laura. 1 has been west of 90 though Marco and Laura could make it 3 getting that far.

There's no way to know what happens after these two systems are done, and there isn't really any parallel to this year up to this point (obvious similarities with 2010, 2005 and in some ways 98). But if this was to continue as the storms get stronger, obviously the threat to the US, Mexico and the islands is there. The US has seen 5 landfalls and about $5B in damage so far. Laura and Marco could make it 7 landfalls. Most have been weak though obviously Hanna, Fay and Isaias had some impacts.

[TheStormExpert]

A west-based season would also explain why most storms originating from AEW’s have struggled until they’re out of the MDR and north of 20°N. Could this have something to do with some of these waves being monsoon-like allowing them to take longer to get their act together? Of course being that this is looking more like a west-based season means more landfalls and land impacts.

[CyclonicFury]

I feel like the true season for Cabo Verde type longtrackers likely hasn't arrived yet. The MDR is most favorable for longtrackers in MJO Phases 2/3 when the upward motion is centered over the Indian Ocean and shear is at its lowest.

Even though the storms have struggled in the MDR so far, I'm not confident that will continue to be the case, as most of the strongest CV-type longtrackers have been in September rather than August. The ECMWF and EPS are now starting to pick up some MDR development in early September.

[toad strangler]

I feel like the true season for Cabo Verde type longtrackers likely hasn't arrived yet. The MDR is most favorable for longtrackers in MJO Phases 2/3 when the upward motion is centered over the Indian Ocean and shear is at its lowest.

Even though the storms have struggled in the MDR so far, I'm not confident that will continue to be the case, as most of the strongest CV-type longtrackers have been in September rather than August. The ECMWF and EPS are now starting to pick up some MDR development in early September.

NOAA expects long track majors. We are on the cusp of finding out.

[St0rmTh0r]

I feel like the true season for Cabo Verde type longtrackers likely hasn't arrived yet. The MDR is most favorable for longtrackers in MJO Phases 2/3 when the upward motion is centered over the Indian Ocean and shear is at its lowest.

Even though the storms have struggled in the MDR so far, I'm not confident that will continue to be the case, as most of the strongest CV-type longtrackers have been in September rather than August. The ECMWF and EPS are now starting to pick up some MDR development in early September.

True September is the real peak of hurricane season when conditions are most favorable throughout the entire basin. At this rate its guaranteed we will see some long trackers. There have been several MDR storms so far. TD 10 was briefly a tropical storm off Africa back at the end of July. So the conditions are favorable. September is peak conditions

[CyclonicFury]

I feel like the true season for Cabo Verde type longtrackers likely hasn't arrived yet. The MDR is most favorable for longtrackers in MJO Phases 2/3 when the upward motion is centered over the Indian Ocean and shear is at its lowest.

Even though the storms have struggled in the MDR so far, I'm not confident that will continue to be the case, as most of the strongest CV-type longtrackers have been in September rather than August. The ECMWF and EPS are now starting to pick up some MDR development in early September.

True September is the real peak of hurricane season when conditions are most favorable throughout the entire basin. At this rate its guaranteed we will see some long trackers. There have been several MDR storms so far. TD 10 was briefly a tropical storm off Africa back at the end of July. So the conditions are favorable. September is peak conditions

So far the MDR has been more active through this date than it was in 2017. Before Irma, the MDR had TS Bret in June (45 kt), TD Four in July (25 kt), TS Don in July (45 kt) and TS Harvey in August (40 kt). All struggled in the MDR and were unable to develop significantly while there. However, after that, there was Irma (155 kt), Jose (135 kt), and Maria (145 kt) in the MDR. The EPS is already starting to pick up on more activity as I noted, but the GFS isn't, and that should not be a surprise considering the model has been awful with predicting MDR genesis more than a few days out this season.

Basically, my main point is, it's too early to assume the MDR will be unfavorable as a few have said when the peak MJO phase and climatology for MDR storms has not yet arrived. I think we get at least one major hurricane east of 50W and south of 20N before the end of September.

[toad strangler]

I feel like the true season for Cabo Verde type longtrackers likely hasn't arrived yet. The MDR is most favorable for longtrackers in MJO Phases 2/3 when the upward motion is centered over the Indian Ocean and shear is at its lowest.

Even though the storms have struggled in the MDR so far, I'm not confident that will continue to be the case, as most of the strongest CV-type longtrackers have been in September rather than August. The ECMWF and EPS are now starting to pick up some MDR development in early September.

True September is the real peak of hurricane season when conditions are most favorable throughout the entire basin. At this rate its guaranteed we will see some long trackers. There have been several MDR storms so far. TD 10 was briefly a tropical storm off Africa back at the end of July. So the conditions are favorable. September is peak conditions

So far the MDR has been more active through this date than it was in 2017. Before Irma, the MDR had TS Bret in June (45 kt), TD Four in July (25 kt), TS Don in July (45 kt) and TS Harvey in August (40 kt). All struggled in the MDR and were unable to develop significantly while there. However, after that, there was Irma (155 kt), Jose (135 kt), and Maria (145 kt) in the MDR. The EPS is already starting to pick up on more activity as I noted, but the GFS isn't, and that should not be a surprise considering the model has been awful with predicting MDR genesis more than a few days out this season.

Basically, my main point is, it's too early to assume the MDR will be unfavorable as a few have said when the peak MJO phase and climatology for MDR storms has not yet arrived. I think we get at least one major hurricane east of 50W and south of 20N before the end of September.

Do you mean WEST of 50W and SOUTH of 20N? I think that's what ya meant.

[CyclonicFury]

True September is the real peak of hurricane season when conditions are most favorable throughout the entire basin. At this rate its guaranteed we will see some long trackers. There have been several MDR storms so far. TD 10 was briefly a tropical storm off Africa back at the end of July. So the conditions are favorable. September is peak conditions

So far the MDR has been more active through this date than it was in 2017. Before Irma, the MDR had TS Bret in June (45 kt), TD Four in July (25 kt), TS Don in July (45 kt) and TS Harvey in August (40 kt). All struggled in the MDR and were unable to develop significantly while there. However, after that, there was Irma (155 kt), Jose (135 kt), and Maria (145 kt) in the MDR. The EPS is already starting to pick up on more activity as I noted, but the GFS isn't, and that should not be a surprise considering the model has been awful with predicting MDR genesis more than a few days out this season.

Basically, my main point is, it's too early to assume the MDR will be unfavorable as a few have said when the peak MJO phase and climatology for MDR storms has not yet arrived. I think we get at least one major hurricane east of 50W and south of 20N before the end of September.

Do you mean WEST of 50W and SOUTH of 20N? I think that's what ya meant.

No, I meant EAST of 50W.

[toad strangler]

So far the MDR has been more active through this date than it was in 2017. Before Irma, the MDR had TS Bret in June (45 kt), TD Four in July (25 kt), TS Don in July (45 kt) and TS Harvey in August (40 kt). All struggled in the MDR and were unable to develop significantly while there. However, after that, there was Irma (155 kt), Jose (135 kt), and Maria (145 kt) in the MDR. The EPS is already starting to pick up on more activity as I noted, but the GFS isn't, and that should not be a surprise considering the model has been awful with predicting MDR genesis more than a few days out this season.

Basically, my main point is, it's too early to assume the MDR will be unfavorable as a few have said when the peak MJO phase and climatology for MDR storms has not yet arrived. I think we get at least one major hurricane east of 50W and south of 20N before the end of September.

Do you mean WEST of 50W and SOUTH of 20N? I think that's what ya meant.

No, I meant EAST of 50W.

OK ... that shouldn't be a surprise IMO. NOAA's forecast had multiple MDR LT storms in mind ... at least that's how I read it.

[CyclonicFury]

Do you mean WEST of 50W and SOUTH of 20N? I think that's what ya meant.

No, I meant EAST of 50W.

OK ... that shouldn't be a surprise IMO. NOAA's forecast had multiple MDR LT storms in mind ... at least that's how I read it.

The MDR does include the tropical eastern Atlantic too. It wouldn't be terribly surprising to see a major east of 50°W south of 20°N, considering the MDR is anomalously warm. Irma did it in 2017, and Lorenzo did it last year. However a major hurricane so far east is more likely to recurve.