2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[ThetaE]

He asked a valid question that no one answered. Is something wrong with the scale?

I've had similar questions about the scale used for instability in the MDR, which has been below average for over 10 years now.

I've seen people earlier in this thread show similar SAL graphics using METEOSAT data, and that view always seems to look a lot less intense than the GOES-16 data. I don't know where their source is, though, since CIMSS only shows SAL derived from GOES-16.

[EquusStorm]

There always seems to be a period of relative quiet, or at least struggling storms, preceding recent major catastrophic Atlantic hurricanes. That period of quiet and temporarily hostile conditions, with attendant unimpressive model runs, usually leads to season cancel posts. There was season cancel before Joaquin, season cancel before Matthew, season cancel before Harvey, season cancel before Florence, season cancel before Michael, season cancel before Dorian, and certainly season cancel before Laura. Certainly the hostile conditions and calm sometimes translate into quiet largely harmless seasons, at least prior to the last few, but it is certainly frustrating every time to hear season cancel so early on because we ALL should know better by now.

It'd be far better for everyone to do as many already do and speculate as to why conditions are not favorable at the moment with the full understanding that things can and probably will change rapidly at some point, rather than outright begin to believe the season will entirely underperform because we haven't had multiple majors by August 15

[tolakram]

I put this in another thread but it belongs here.

My opinion:

I think that basically this is a misunderstanding of how the tropics work, and how rare perfect conditions are. Even in a year with good indicators you still need the right conditions at the right time. All seasonal forecasts can tell us is that the chance of stronger storms is possible because there should be more opportunities for good conditions.

Marco was too early, the gulf had a lot of shear overhead. Laura was just a day or so later when conditions were good.

Really not much more to say. Struggling systems in 'good' years should be expected. Struggling systems in any year should be expected. What made 2005 so rare, and a season we will probably never see again, is that perfect conditions were unusually (very unusual) common.

[CyclonicFury]

I'm hoping the west-based nature of the season so far doesn't continue. I'd much rather see some long-track Cabo Verde major hurricanes that recurve out to sea than have significant land threats like Laura that struggle early on and get strong later.

[EquusStorm]

Yeah it feels awful lot like 2005 with the west based constant activity, I hope September doesn't continue those comparisons. We're having our Rita right now but on steroids.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1298709187170459651

[toad strangler]

I'm hoping the west-based nature of the season so far doesn't continue. I'd much rather see some long-track Cabo Verde major hurricanes that recurve out to sea than have significant land threats like Laura that struggle early on and get strong later.

NOAA specifically stated that they expect long track majors in their final outlook.

[FireRat]

9:25 pm on this 26th of August and I gotta tell ye Laura is one heck of an indicator for the 2020 season!!

Hurricane Laura is on the cusp of Category 5 in the northwestern GOM, intensifying to landfall...Michael style. It's not even September yet and look at what we have tonight.

This is comfirmation of many things we were speculating about this year, and now we can infer that this season really means business! Conditions are there for high-end hurricanes. We had almost every blob try to spin up this year and now we have this monster in the GOM. This is very reminiscent of 2005...

This means we can expect more wild stuff in September, October, and possibly even November. The storms are finding their best environments to explode as they near land offshore the Southeast US or in the GOM. The Caribbean will likely also ripen next month into October.

[Hammy]

We're almost halfway through the season so I'll give my thoughts up to this point, as we're not likely to see any new storms for the remainder of August.

CFS has been showing several long trackers and threats to the Southeastern US for months now. While it's backed off on the spurt of MDR activity--a habit it shares with how the Euro worked years ago, to correctly show things in the longer range and backtrack once it gets closer--the shorter term models are now latching onto things in the tropical Atlantic changing in the coming weeks.

Laura has shown the western part of the basin is more than favorable and the open Atlantic, if the dry air can ever clear out, will likely be equally favorable as I haven't seen wave after wave get eaten by shear as we saw last year. I'm expecting the first half of September should be fairly active and might taper off in the latter half, followed by an active western-centered October--and it would not surprise me in the least if Laura ends up not being the strongest landfall of the year.

[ClarCari]

We're almost halfway through the season so I'll give my thoughts up to this point, as we're not likely to see any new storms for the remainder of August.

CFS has been showing several long trackers and threats to the Southeastern US for months now. While it's backed off on the spurt of MDR activity--a habit it shares with how the Euro worked years ago, to correctly show things in the longer range and backtrack once it gets closer--the shorter term models are now latching onto things in the tropical Atlantic changing in the coming weeks.

Laura has shown the western part of the basin is more than favorable and the open Atlantic, if the dry air can ever clear out, will likely be equally favorable as I haven't seen wave after wave get eaten by shear as we saw last year. I'm expecting the first half of September should be fairly active and might taper off in the latter half, followed by an active western-centered October--and it would not surprise me in the least if Laura ends up not being the strongest landfall of the year.

There’s been quite a bit of storms strengthening as they approach the coast lately. Interesting enough all the 2005 majors never made landfall in the Gulf Coast as more than a Cat 3, as if Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma all made a pact not to be any stronger than that

Was there something about 2005’s Gulf Environment that caused them all (besides Wilma which actually restrengthened to Cat 3 after its Mexico landfall) to weaken to Cat 3’s before they made landfall in the Gulf.
Bc we could really use that this season

[AxaltaRacing24]

We're almost halfway through the season so I'll give my thoughts up to this point, as we're not likely to see any new storms for the remainder of August.

CFS has been showing several long trackers and threats to the Southeastern US for months now. While it's backed off on the spurt of MDR activity--a habit it shares with how the Euro worked years ago, to correctly show things in the longer range and backtrack once it gets closer--the shorter term models are now latching onto things in the tropical Atlantic changing in the coming weeks.

Laura has shown the western part of the basin is more than favorable and the open Atlantic, if the dry air can ever clear out, will likely be equally favorable as I haven't seen wave after wave get eaten by shear as we saw last year. I'm expecting the first half of September should be fairly active and might taper off in the latter half, followed by an active western-centered October--and it would not surprise me in the least if Laura ends up not being the strongest landfall of the year.

There’s been quite a bit of storms strengthening as they approach the coast lately. Interesting enough all the 2005 majors never made landfall in the Gulf Coast as more than a Cat 3, as if Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma all made a pact not to be any stronger than that

Was there something about 2005’s Gulf Environment that caused them all (besides Wilma which actually restrengthened to Cat 3 after its Mexico landfall) to weaken to Cat 3’s before they made landfall in the Gulf.
Bc we could really use that this season

second gulf major in 2 years that intensified until landfall. it is abundantly clear that gulf storms are not guaranteed to weaken before landfall.

[Hammy]

Some comparison statistics between this year and last, and general points of interest:

There were 11 invests by this point, vs 19 this year
This year's five non-developing invests is equal to this point last year
Three tropical waves--TD3, Dorian, and Erin--developed before September 1, compared to eight so far this year--Bertha's origins were trackable to waves, along with Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, TD10, Josephine, Laura, and Marco
2019 saw a total of five storms--Dorian, Gabrielle, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, and--develop south of 20N prior to October; 2020 has seen Cristobal, Gonzalo, Isaias, TD10, Josephine, Laura, and Marco in just five weeks since late July
2019 only saw two tropical storms in the Caribbean--both in the extreme eastern portion--none of which formed there; 2020 has seen three already including two forming there
2019 had five storms in the Gulf the entire season--three of which lasted 24 hours--and one hurricane that was at that intensity for three hours; 2020 has had four storms, with all but Cristobal reaching hurricane intensity
2020 reached four hurricanes almost a month earlier than last year (and even two weeks earlier than 2018)
2020's three Gulf hurricanes before September is the highest since 2005
Laura was only the second major hurricane (and the strongest) in the Gulf during August since 2005

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1298979831749595136

[weeniepatrol]

Rare to see the MJO in such a favorable position and amplitude for the north Atlantic

[Steve]

7 US Landfalls by 8/27/20. Luckily many of them have been weak and Marco only barely counts. $5B in US losses so far with tabulations for Laura which should be a 10 or 11 figure storm remaining to be counted. The vast majority of storms so far have their origins or finish west of 70W. Nobody knows for sure what will happen in the second half of the season. It could go completely opposite. But the East and Gulf Coasts would be right to keep a wary eye to the East and SE the next 2 months.

[weeniepatrol]

So much for the TUTT

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1299114114535632899

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1299122616549031936

[toad strangler]

NO TUTT

 http://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1299114114535632899

[Hammy]

http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1299122616549031936?s=20

A question regarding the rising branch--there's a lot of sinking are showing up in early September, does the rising air over Africa have more influence over formative systems than the sinking air in the Atlantic does with existing systems?

[weeniepatrol]

http://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1299122616549031936?s=20

A question regarding the rising branch--there's a lot of sinking are showing up in early September, does the rising air over Africa have more influence over formative systems than the sinking air in the Atlantic does with existing systems?

yes, 2017 had subsidence in the tropics but it makes no difference whatsoever to established systems which everything was by the islands