#2771 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Aug 22, 2021 6:01 pm
Everything is favoring an extremely favorable late August and September. The convectively-coupled Kelvin wave is forecasted to move across the Atlantic during August and into Africa and the Indian Ocean during September. An above-average West African Monsoon should aid in making the Atlantic very convectively active. Saharan Dust will likely not be a factor in late August and September. Sea surface temperatures are significantly above-average for tropical cyclogenesis both in the tropical North Atlantic and the subtropical North Atlantic, and they are likely to remain this way. In the Pacific, sea surface temperatures are significantly below-average for both the equatorial Pacific and the subtropical North Pacific. For September, a large standing wave over Africa and the Indian Ocean is likely to enhance tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic.
At the moment, October and November seem favorable for tropical cyclogenesis. In addition to the warmer-than-average Atlantic and the cooler-than-average Pacific expected for the rest of this year, a mass of rising air over the Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent should enhance tropical cyclogenesis forecasted by the CanSIPS and the JMA for both October and November.
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