Long Range Models

[cycloneye]

12z GFS Long Range Loop

This run shows a couple of lows emerging Africa.

[Stormcenter]

Do any of you remember last season the bogus storm that most of the models predicted in the GOM that caused the price of gasoline to skyrocket? The thing never developed. The models are a crap shoot. Sometimes they roll snake eyes and most times they don't. Just my opinion.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps,more CV action after July 15? More lows comming off africa and more south than the low that gave birth to Bertha.

18z GFS Long Range Loop

[KWT]

Well the 06z GFS now trying to develop a tropical storm in the Cape Verde region again in the next few days and takes it on a more southerly track towards the Caribbean:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

[HURAKAN]

This one is not long into future:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

[Meso]

The CMC is also hinting at something coming off Africa at around 126 hours.. Could tell already from weeks ago that it was likely to be an active CV season with the amount of good looking waves that were coming off the coast of Africa

[cycloneye]

12z GFS shows a low latitud low SW of the CV islands.

[Scorpion]

Wow.. the GFS is usually pretty accurate in showing development in the short-medium term. Definitely something to watch for.

[KWT]

Yep it does look interesting though I want to see more model latch onto possible development but given we have only just seen Bertha form in that region and conditions do look condusive and there is a region of convection coming off Africa around there it does raise interesting possiblities...

[cycloneye]

At 108 hours,GFS still has the low close to 40w.

[Extremeweatherguy]

If we see yet another CV storm form this early on in the season, then that would be pretty amazing! I will be watching this closely for sure.

[cycloneye]

No low at 132 hours but wave is evident around 45w south of 15n.Lets see if other models join GFS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Note potential Cristobal from the 6Z GFS is not forecast to recurve. Spooky if true.

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS at 180 hours has a nice 850mb vortmax crossing the windward islands ...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_180m.gif

but it's only a weak open wave at the surface

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_180m.gif

[RL3AO]

18z GFS develops some type of cutoff low from an east coast trough. Develops in front of Bertha.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_156l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_162l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_168l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_174l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_180l.gif

[canegrl04]

If we see yet another CV storm form this early on in the season, then that would be pretty amazing! I will be watching this closely for sure.

And enough to make ya wonder if we are going to experience alittle 2005 deja vu

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFS continues to look interesting in the region of the bahamas in about 9 to 10+ days from now...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300m.gif

As of right now the model is not showing a well-defined tropical cyclone from this area, but it is showing a pretty strong tropical wave. It will be interesting to see what future model runs decide to do with this stronger-than-normal looking wave in the days to come..

[KWT]

Yep thats quite interesting even though its a long long way out, that sort of set-up would need to be watched closely if it happened, probably won't though.

[Stormcenter]

If we see yet another CV storm form this early on in the season, then that would be pretty amazing! I will be watching this closely for sure.

And enough to make ya wonder if we are going to experience alittle 2005 deja vu

Actually I believe it may just mean the opposit. IMO.

[jhamps10]

The GFS continues to look interesting in the region of the bahamas in about 9 to 10+ days from now...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_240m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_288m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300m.gif

As of right now the model is not showing a well-defined tropical cyclone from this area, but it is showing a pretty strong tropical wave. It will be interesting to see what future model runs decide to do with this stronger-than-normal looking wave in the days to come..

looks like it is coming off of the wave right now over the western part of Africa. a wave that frankly needs watched as it goes off shore to see if it develops, or if it doesn't. but over africa it looks extremely good already, now of course some of that is from daytime heating and the like there, but don't be suprised if we get our letter C storm of 2008 off of that wave.