Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[Frank2]

Note how all the models set-up the low feature way up at 16-18N, remember what happened with 93L and how that came off at 10N but set-up way north...similar thing would happen this time because there is a strong weakness to the NE over W. Europe right now...

I noticed that weakness too - that'll be a signficant factor for anything moving off Africa in the days to come since it can mean the difference of 5 degrees, and as we know that really does make a difference when it comes to a future track...

The western most circulation seems to take a very unusual drift almost due north over western Africa - don't think I've ever seen that happen:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Just no GOM storms, depressions, regular hurricanes or MAJORS. And Ivan ..... do you sleep ever? You must sleep with a laptop.

Hehe, I've wondered the same thing about Ivanhater. That guy's hardcore.....I appreciate all the informative information, especially related to models, that he provides though. I could never do it.....

[HURAKAN]

I will get excited when I see the first advisory

[ConvergenceZone]

Does anyone now when the first wave that the models develop suppose to move offshore?

Below is the link to the test invest PGI-30L where there are many things related to this wave only, from tracks, sat images, models and much more. You would not want to go away from it as there is plenty of info to gather.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/PGI30L.html

Thanks Luis for your response , I'll take a look at that map.

[Frank2]

The GFS continues to show lobes of the polar trough continuing to bump the subtropical high to the east, though after Day 8 (at least in this run) the high seems to reestablish itself, so we'll see what happens:

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/loop/gfsx_500p_loop.html

[ConvergenceZone]

it is interesting how all the models are coming together for development.
Regarding my last post I made, now that I think about it, I don't think Luis ever sleeps either ....

[KWT]

Yeah CZ everything is coming together, just as was expected around the 20th CZ!

Frank, I personally think the GFS is overdoing the troughing but still there is a fair amount out there but past 120hrs I'm always a little cautious with regards to the GFS and how deep it takes troughing.

I just can't wait to finally get another system out there, hopefully we can get a hurricane this time out of it.

[cycloneye]

While we wait for the ECMWF, lets see how is test invest PGI-30L doing right now.

Is easy to see where it is.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yeah CZ everything is coming together, just as was expected around the 20th CZ!

Frank, I personally think the GFS is overdoing the troughing but still there is a fair amount out there but past 120hrs I'm always a little cautious with regards to the GFS and how deep it takes troughing.

I just can't wait to finally get another system out there, hopefully we can get a hurricane this time out of it.

Good Call KWT..
It ill be interesting to see how long the favorable conditions last for CV development after these 2 waves......

[Ivanhater]

I think we are at the point where most of us will be happy to track a long fish

Like mentioned before, the pattern is changing and this is the time where there could be multiple storms to track...all we can do now is see what the models are sniffing out in the long range as far as troughs and ridges. The 06 run of the GFS goes to show that it doesn't matter if it comes off far north, it can still hit even North Florida if the pattern is right.

[ColinDelia]

Looks to me like the GFS brings the first wave that become a TC off the coast this Tuesday, the next on Sun Aug 23 with another strong wave reaching the coast on Aug 30th at the very end of the run.

http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/m ... &domain=TA

[ColinDelia]

Yeah well it better get busy sooner than later cuz it'll be winter before you know it and most of us hibernate for the winter

[KWT]

I think we are at the point where most of us will be happy to track a long fish

I still bet this board isn't as busy as it was when sheared TS Bonnie was upgraded even if this one becomes a cat-4 fish!

Still I agree I just want something to track now that is going to last more then 24hrs and not be sheared to death.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

I'm more interested in what the ECMWF shows rather than the GFS. The GFS has been all over the place, the ECMWF has been more consistent.

[cycloneye]

First image that NRL has of test invest PGI-30L.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/predict-bin/ ... p&TYPE=vis

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro 168

[Ivanhater]

[cycloneye]

Much stronger than the 00z. It looks to bypass the NE Caribbean.

[jaxfladude]

I think we are at the point where most of us will be happy to track a long fish

Like mentioned before, the pattern is changing and this is the time where there could be multiple storms to track...all we can do now is see what the models are sniffing out in the long range as far as troughs and ridges. The 06 run of the GFS goes to show that it doesn't matter if it comes off far north, it can still hit even North Florida if the pattern is right.

Yikes, , this is the second time a long term model that shows a system that hits or nearly hits me, IIRC, the first was the long term model of future Colin, that ended up way to the east of me!
Trying to keep me awake for the long haul also?

Still a lot of time left for changes(I hope so) to concur.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

12z ECMWF much stronger than the 00z...much further north too.