2013 WPAC Season

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I mean, for the RSMC.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS has 30W making landfall in Vietnam, then crossing into the Indian ocean and regenerating there.

In the South China Sea



Landfall in Vietnam



In the Gulf of Thailand



Over the Andaman Islands



Landfall in India

That storm over the North Indian Ocean, if it will be reaching 65 km/h by the RSMC, will be named Helen.

[euro6208]

i wonder when we will have another 1997 Super El nino type season...

11 Super Typhoons of which 10 developed into a Category 5! Three of them peaking at 160 knots...

ACE: 594.11

We are overdue for another one...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

i wonder when we will have another 1997 Super El nino type season...

11 Super Typhoons of which 10 developed into a Category 5! Three of them peaking at 160 knots...

ACE: 594.11

We are overdue for another one...

Curious about next year. Models show a mild El Niño early of 2014.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Euro - sorry for calling you ignorant. I was just angered.

[euro6208]

Euro - sorry for calling you ignorant. I was just angered.

it's ok...lol...

[Meow]

i wonder when we will have another 1997 Super El nino type season...

11 Super Typhoons of which 10 developed into a Category 5! Three of them peaking at 160 knots...

ACE: 594.11

We are overdue for another one...

Imagery in that period has some issues, making clouds look colder.

[euro6208]

Mindanao Landfall...


second landfall: Puerto Princessa...



Vietnam Landfall...

12Z GFS developing Podul and takes aim at the philippines...

The ground is already saturated from the most recent storms, 30W and Haiyan, i fear there will be many flooding...

[somethingfunny]

I have a question that I was wondering if some of you could answer. I was noticing Manila is somewhat shielded from direct typhoon strikes, though one from the east can cause heavy damage, the geography protects the city from a direct hit. The geography reminds me of Tampa, Florida, in that a storm moving north or north-northeast could funnel a storm surge into the city. I can't think of any typhoons that have ever moved northward through the Philippines though.

Why is a northward track so uncommon in that part of the world? I'd imagine especially in November/December there'd be ample ridge weakness in the mid-latitudes to pull a developing storm up from the southeastern South China Sea on a track through or just west of the archipelago. Is there a good resource I could use to look up the paths of historical storms impacting Manila and the rest of the Philippines?

[euro6208]

Dvorak of 8.0 for Super Typhoon Haiyan!

[dexterlabio]

I have a question that I was wondering if some of you could answer. I was noticing Manila is somewhat shielded from direct typhoon strikes, though one from the east can cause heavy damage, the geography protects the city from a direct hit. The geography reminds me of Tampa, Florida, in that a storm moving north or north-northeast could funnel a storm surge into the city. I can't think of any typhoons that have ever moved northward through the Philippines though.

Why is a northward track so uncommon in that part of the world? I'd imagine especially in November/December there'd be ample ridge weakness in the mid-latitudes to pull a developing storm up from the southeastern South China Sea on a track through or just west of the archipelago. Is there a good resource I could use to look up the paths of historical storms impacting Manila and the rest of the Philippines?

You will find lots of interesting stats about Philippine typhoons by going to this link. Including those that affected Manila area.

I've never seen a typhoon, or even a tropical storm that originated from South China Sea and tracking NE or north towards Manila. There were some cyclones originating from SCS tracking northwards, but most of them affected the Ilocos Region and the western part of Central Luzon (Zambales). Look for Typhoon Chan-hom in 2009.

[mrbagyo]

I have a question that I was wondering if some of you could answer. I was noticing Manila is somewhat shielded from direct typhoon strikes, though one from the east can cause heavy damage, the geography protects the city from a direct hit. The geography reminds me of Tampa, Florida, in that a storm moving north or north-northeast could funnel a storm surge into the city. I can't think of any typhoons that have ever moved northward through the Philippines though.

Why is a northward track so uncommon in that part of the world? I'd imagine especially in November/December there'd be ample ridge weakness in the mid-latitudes to pull a developing storm up from the southeastern South China Sea on a track through or just west of the archipelago. Is there a good resource I could use to look up the paths of historical storms impacting Manila and the rest of the Philippines?

You will find lots of interesting stats about Philippine typhoons by going to this link. Including those that affected Manila area.

I've never seen a typhoon, or even a tropical storm that originated from South China Sea and tracking NE or north towards Manila. There were some cyclones originating from SCS tracking northwards, but most of them affected the Ilocos Region and the western part of Central Luzon (Zambales). Look for Typhoon Chan-hom in 2009.

Tropical Storm Dot(1979)... that was a near miss, luckily it's just a tropical storm...


actually,IMO Manila is a crossbreed of New Orleans, Louisiana & Tampa, Florida.
Manila is surrounded by water just like NOLA.
Manila bay to the west: Gulf of Mexico to the south of NOLA
Laguna de bay(lake) to the east: Lake Ponchatrain to the north of NOLA, and
Pasig River winds through it: Mississippi River winds through NOLA.

and just like Tampa - Tampa bay
Manila is located at the receiving end of a Manila Bay funneled Storm Surge
... plus the subsidence rate of the soil in the coastal Manila bay is so alarming. Manila is just a ticking time bomb waiting for its big moment. A re-curving typhoon tracking NE coming from the South West of Manila will do a lot of Damage.

[euro6208]

The streak of philippine storms continue as GFS 00Z develops two more storms with one of them striking the same area where haiyan hits but weaker but more rain and flooding...see the Invest 90W thread for more information...

Another storm (long range) is forecast to develop southeast of guam and take a westnorthwest track towards guam...this is what it looks like at 384 hours!...I really hope this doesn't track towards the PI.

[dexterlabio]

^where are the mid-latitude troughs when you need them? this time of the year is when the STR is dominant, steering storms in the open Pacific to the west. The moisture across WPAC just keeps coming, it needs to dry up a bit....

[somethingfunny]

Thanks for these great answers, guys!

I worry that one of these days a strong typhoon will cross the southern Philippines and recurve right into Manila without losing much strength. There may not be any recent precedent for it, but it's definitely possible.

[euro6208]

GFS 12Z has backed off from developing that potential typhoon in the philippine sea...Good News but still we must be very cautious as we have only one and a half month left before the season is over.

[euro6208]

Western Pacific tropical storm paths for the period of 1980-2005...

[euro6208]

It will be a very interesting post season analysis on haiyan from JTWC. How strong it made landfall and how strong it got will be a much anticipated conclusion to the ongoing debate. Will we see many changes in regards to our 31 storms or so?

Again, i can't stress enough how much we need recon...

[galaxy401]

Hopefully after Haiyan this season is done.

[dexterlabio]

https://www.facebook.com/notes/ks-weather-and-more/2013-cyclones-and-some-historical-trivia-updated/717613768253276

Are that stats in this page correct? According to this, the latest TSR forecast predicted a below-average season with a TOTAL of 42 tropical cyclones of TS intensity and above. He added 22(TS) + 13(TY) + 7 (major TY) for a total of 42. And according to her stats, the WPAC currently stands at 9 (TS) + 13 (TY) + 8 (major) for a total of 30 tropical cyclones of TS strength and above...which way below a below-average season for her. He is counting the numbers based on the peak intensity a storm had attained. I feel there is something not right.