2015 WPAC Season

[WALL-E]

EURO hinting Nangka...



GFS develops Nangka east of Okinawa...

Could you please tell me how do you get the full-res. version GFS forecast? I can only find normal version ones, which bothers me lol

[Yellow Evan]

EURO hinting Nangka...



GFS develops Nangka east of Okinawa...

Could you please tell me how do you get the full-res. version GFS forecast? I can only find normal version ones, which bothers me lol

Go to surface pressure and 10m sustained on Levi's site.

[euro6208]

That long tracking storm from the CPAC somewhat scares me. Reminds me of Paka...

[euro6208]

Active spell continues...

GFS showing 4 more storms, Nangka (Swallowed by the bigger storm), Soudelor, Molave, and Goni...

[euro6208]

GFS +24hrs surface winds triple closed off cells WP and a fire in the hole.

GFS 850 @+24hrs

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/06/30 ... ,3.67,1176

Looks like a monster with 3 eyes with a ripe mouth.

The mouth sucking all the energy.

That's a fairly close cyclone to Bougainville Island in PNG...

[euro6208]

Almost looks like the *Ber* months out there with a monsoon trough established throughout the region. It is forecast to lift slightly north bringing the threat of heavy rainfall in some locations.

Embedded in this trough is two areas circulations now Invest 94 and 95W.

There is another system east of the Philippines which the models are developing and another near 170E near Majuro which the NWS is now monitoring...

[euro6208]

MJO...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This is crazy wow

[euro6208]

This is crazy wow

Wow Indeed...

The Marianas will be the hotspot globally this year even with systems coming from the west!

[euro6208]

While GFS develops triplets that gets absorbed into a monster typhoon, EURO barely develops the other systems. It does however develop another long tracking system right through the Marianas...

[euro6208]

So we have 95W which is poised to become a category 5 as it recurves and absorbs 1 TS and now another possible category 5 is poised to swallow 2 TS's near the Philippines as it recurves south of Okinawa and into the Koreas...

Very complex and difficult situtation happening...

[cycloneye]

Nothing is clear yet first on how many systems may develop from and even less clear what tracks they will take.I guess we have to wait for things to consolidate and detach from the Monsoon Trough.

[cycloneye]

This is the 12z ECMWF run that in my view is more clear than what GFS is progging in terms of not having many lows moving around like fujiwara.The EC is more strait forward on track with less recurve and it has two Typhoons in the 10 day period.GFS has less recurving on the 12z run than in the past two runs.Having said all the above,is still early in the game to know about specifics on intensity or tracks but one thing is for sure and that is we may see at least two TC's in the basin later this week going to next weekend.

[euro6208]

How about CMC? It develops 5 with 3 typhoons at the same time...

[dexterlabio]

This is the 12z ECMWF run that in my view is more clear than what GFS is progging in terms of not having many lows moving around like fujiwara.The EC is more strait forward on track with less recurve and it has two Typhoons in the 10 day period.GFS has less recurving on the 12z run than in the past two runs.Having said all the above,is still early in the game to know about specifics on intensity or tracks but one thing is for sure and that is we may see at least two TC's in the basin later this week going to next weekend.

Agreed with this. Direct cyclone interaction is very difficult to predict or to simulate even by the best global computer models, moreso predicting Fujiwara interaction between THREE closed low systems. It makes me think that GFS still doesn't have a clearer view of things...

[euro6208]

EURO doesn't develop the Philippine system but does develop another long tracking typhoon which then veers it into the Northern Marianas north of Saipan. One two punch...

It develops another TS in the South China Sea...

GFS also doesn't the Philippine system but does develop at least 3 TCs...

[dexterlabio]

^If you'll look closely the low pressure system east of the Philippines is the TC in South China Sea as shown in the latest ECMWF run. I am not sure though if this is 94W or another system.

[Yellow Evan]

^If you'll look closely the low pressure system east of the Philippines is the TC in South China Sea as shown in the latest ECMWF run. I am not sure though if this is 94W or another system.

It's a system near Mindaro east of 94W. GFS has 94W merging with 95W.

[euro6208]

NAVGEM develops the Philippine system and makes landfall over Luzon...

CMC develops the Philippine system and takes it to the Batanes Islands north of Luzon, stalls it, and recurves it slowly south of Okinawa...It also develops another long tracking system from near the dateline...

EURO also develops the Philippine system and intensifies it to a typhoon and makes landfall over Luzon. One two punch, it also develops another long tracking typhoon and hits the Marianas!

[euro6208]

Damn scary MJO moving through...This and over 30 knots of westerly winds from the Indian Ocean to the WPAC should promote massive developments in the next few days...