2015 Global model runs discussion

[TheStormExpert]

00z GFS finally has the storm.

[TheStormExpert]

Now BOTH the Euro(ECMWF) and the GFS show the SE U.S. Coast storm, with the GFS being faster and a tad further east than the Euro. At least we are seeing a trend toward consistency, so it seems odds of tropical development are increasing.

The setup seems eerily similar to that of Hurricane Arthur from last year. Even the track the two different models show seems very similar until after the NC Outer Banks.

00z ECMWF Hr.216


00z ECMWF Hr.240


00z GFS Hr.156


00z GFS Hr.180


00z GFS Hr.216


00z GFS Hr.240

[stormlover2013]

By looking at the euro I could see 2 storms that could pop up and happen looks like there will be tons of moisture in gulf and then maybe east coast storm

[gatorcane]

12Z MU fails to develop the system off the SE U.S. coast again. As the ECMWF has shown some development, still has my interest.

[OuterBanker]

First of all it’s a 10 day. I still don’t trust any 10 day, all should be taken with a grain of salt. But, that said the Euro has been rather persistent in developing this and the GFS is following suit to an extent. What does also seem to be happening with the GFS is the out to sea scenario in which happens on just about every close in scenario. It’s quite frustrating to see the apparent failure to recognize possible ridging that can occur. It always insists on taking them out with the prevailing winds.

[StarmanHDB]

Although I always enjoy reading "Where/When Is the Next Storm" discussions, over the years I've found myself taking these seriously only when a select few of S2K's pro mets (who are usually right on target) chime in. As that hasn't happened yet, please know that while I am entertained by the recent posts, I won't bite. Just sayin!

Carry on!

[TheStormExpert]

Although I always enjoy reading "Where/When Is the Next Storm" discussions, over the years I've found myself taking these seriously only when a select few of S2K's pro mets (who are usually right on target) chime in. As that hasn't happened yet, please know that while I am entertained by the recent posts, I won't bite. Just sayin!

Carry on!

Well wxman57 was biting several days ago and he is usually never too bullish.

BTW, the 12z Euro drops development completely and only shows a few weak lows instead now. Is this it's mid-range tropical cyclone drop issue?

[Hammy]

Although I always enjoy reading "Where/When Is the Next Storm" discussions, over the years I've found myself taking these seriously only when a select few of S2K's pro mets (who are usually right on target) chime in. As that hasn't happened yet, please know that while I am entertained by the recent posts, I won't bite. Just sayin!

Carry on!

Well wxman57 was biting several days ago and he is usually never too bullish.

BTW, the 12z Euro drops development completely and only shows a few weak lows instead now. Is this it's mid-range tropical cyclone drop issue?

I personally wouldn't write anything off yet. The of the storms I can remember watching on the Euro, I think Arthur last year was the only one I don't remember dropping mid-range, but I don't recall if I was checking the model until within 3-4 days of development to start with. Everything else last year (and this year as well) has either shown up a few times in long range, dropped mid-range, and then shown up again when it got to within 96 hours of development. Gonzalo last year is the best example I can think of, where it showed a stronger system 9-10 days out, then a weak depression, and when it got close to time for it to development, went back to a stronger system with an eastward shift in the track. The only exception I can think of was Claudette this year, which it failed to see at all until the shorter range.

[floridasun78]

time will tell if we see any thing off south east coast doing weekend and gulf i see some models want put area both atantic or off gulf my weather man talking about both low bring Florida rain doing weekend

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF backs off on significant development and looks closer to the GFS.

Needless to say the models are struggling with the genesis potential from this as one run they show something, next run they back off, etc.

The usually consistent ECMWF is not so consistent with this complex scenario!

[TheStormExpert]

12Z ECMWF backs off on significant development and looks closer to the GFS.

Needless to say the models are struggling with the genesis potential from this as one run they show something, next run they back off, etc.

The usually consistent ECMWF is not so consistent with this complex scenario!

Yeah but can we even go by what the GFS shows these days? It has done so poorly over the past 14 or so months that I have a hard time believing any of it's solutions these days.

[StarmanHDB]

Although I always enjoy reading "Where/When Is the Next Storm" discussions, over the years I've found myself taking these seriously only when a select few of S2K's pro mets (who are usually right on target) chime in. As that hasn't happened yet, please know that while I am entertained by the recent posts, I won't bite. Just sayin!

Carry on!

Well wxman57 was biting several days ago and he is usually never too bullish.

BTW, the 12z Euro drops development completely and only shows a few weak lows instead now. Is this it's mid-range tropical cyclone drop issue?

Who said anything about wxman57? Well....I guess I am being obvious there, huh?

[gatorcane]

The UKMET model has a weak area of low pressure just east of northern Florida in a week, but no significant development. The model is usually conservative to begin with.

[wxman57]

Well wxman57 was biting several days ago and he is usually never too bullish.

BTW, the 12z Euro drops development completely and only shows a few weak lows instead now. Is this it's mid-range tropical cyclone drop issue?

The 12Z Euro has a stronger low developing next week off the SE U.S. Coast than it did pre-Claudette. I think there's a fair chance of a TS developing there and heading out to sea. No significant U.S. threat, most likely. I look at the analysis on my workstation and can analyze/plot lows every 0.1 millibar if I want. I usually plot to every millibar.

Here's a map valid 18Z Tuesday. Center low has a pressure of 1011mb. Not particularly deep, but the Euro doesn't do a good job with central pressures of TCs:

[Hammy]

NAM (which has done very well so far) is showing the first indication of a low pressure forming in about 42 hours, so it tends to be 6-12 hours quicker in speed in some cases.

[Hammy]

Yeah but can we even go by what the GFS shows these days? It has done so poorly over the past 14 or so months that I have a hard time believing any of it's solutions these days.

I've basically been ignoring the GFS beyond 72 hours at this point, since the update seems to have pushed it from hundreds of phantom storms to outright failing to show the ones that do develop. The Euro is still trying to form something in the Gulf in 240 hours as well.

The 12Z Euro has a stronger low developing next week off the SE U.S. Coast than it did pre-Claudette. I think there's a fair chance of a TS developing there and heading out to sea. No significant U.S. threat, most likely.

Two questions concerning the Euro here, first is it possible 2-3 storms may still come out of this frontal system, and second, when using the tropicaltidbits version, between the wind and vorticity (with wind barbs) maps, which would be better to use in order to get a better idea of intensity?

[NCSTORMMAN]

This is my first post on here but I follow this site a lot when storms are approaching or if I want to check the tropics. Is there any chance of something developing in the Gulf of Mexico? Seems like conditions may be better at least SST wise. That is not an official forecast or anything from me just a question.

[chaser1]

This is my first post on here but I follow this site a lot when storms are approaching or if I want to check the tropics. Is there any chance of something developing in the Gulf of Mexico? Seems like conditions may be better at least SST wise. That is not an official forecast or anything from me just a question.

Welcome 'NC... Well, there's a chance for a "home brew" type system to form from any remnant frontal trough that might dip into the N. Gulf, or we were to see any disturbance bubble up perhaps from the Western Caribbean. Right now though, there doesn't seem to be any significant model support to assume that should occur anytime in the foreseeable future. Then again, each day is a different day and one never knows when one or more forecast models might begin to start sniffing out some new disturbance. Recent days have begun to suggest that perhaps one or more lows might be prospects for development between the Southeast Conus and Bermuda, but once again, model support here has at least temporarily waned. I personally wouldn't think there will be an uptick in activity until perhaps the beginning of August.

[Alyono]

EC developing it again

[TheStormExpert]

The Euro really blows this up into a strong TS/almost minimal hurricane when in gets several hundred miles due East of Cape Cod. Looks like it will be it's strongest in the higher latitudes, go figure.

00z ECMWF Hr.192


00z ECMWF Hr.216


00z ECMWF Hr.240