2016 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Ah the good old days when the GFS use to show Category 5's are back.

[Kingarabian]

Euro and GFS in heavy agreement on 2 hurricanes by Mid July.

[cycloneye]

My hunch is that July will have good activity that will rack up the ACE rapidly.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS bombs it.

[1900hurricane]

I actually forgot its against the the rules to post a weatherbell grafic you alerted to here. Although not sure you did.


BOMS plot.

Is it against the rules? I was just identifying it by what looked like a Maue color scheme to me. Didn't mean to call you out or anything.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah I'm not buying the GFS trying to develop 3 storms within a 14 day period bombing the first to Cat.5 strength.

Same GFS, different basin!

[cycloneye]

12z GFS bombs it.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS way too bullish, given how passive the ECMWF is. When ECMWF is non-aggressive and the GFS is bullish in this basin, I'd usually favor the ECMWF.

[cycloneye]

The sure thing is something will form after July 5 and hopefully it turns into a beautiful hurricane to track as Marie did that was spectacular.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah I'm not buying the GFS trying to develop 3 storms within a 14 day period bombing the first to Cat.5 strength.

Same GFS, different basin!

I agree the strength of the first storm does not seem reasonable, but the idea of 3 storms in 2 weeks is not unreasonable in MJO episodes in late June/early July. We saw this in 2013 with Cosme, Daillia, and Erick and 2012 with Daniel, Emilia, Fabio, for instance.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah I'm not buying the GFS trying to develop 3 storms within a 14 day period bombing the first to Cat.5 strength.

Same GFS, different basin!

I agree the strength of the first storm does not seem reasonable, but the idea of 3 storms in 2 weeks is not unreasonable in MJO episodes in late June/early July. We saw this in 2013 with Cosme, Daillia, and Erick and 2012 with Daniel, Emilia, Fabio, for instance.

I could see a Cat.2/3 for Agatha at best, a moderate(maybe strong) TS for Blas, and IF we manage to squeeze out a third named storm with this MJO pulse I could see Celia being a weak/moderate TS.

Also could this MJO pulse spawn a storm or two in the Atlantic when it passes through in the coming week or two?

[cycloneye]

Here it is!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A westward-moving tropical wave located over Central America is
expected to move into the eastern North Pacific on Tuesday, and then
induce a broad area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
by Wednesday or Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development of the disturbance through this
weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS actually has 4 storms at the end of the run, 2 of which look bogus.

[cycloneye]

Here it is!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A westward-moving tropical wave located over Central America is
expected to move into the eastern North Pacific on Tuesday, and then
induce a broad area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
by Wednesday or Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development of the disturbance through this
weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

I could see a Cat.2/3 for Agatha at best, a moderate(maybe strong) TS for Blas, and IF we manage to squeeze out a third named storm with this MJO pulse I could see Celia being a weak/moderate TS.

Also could this MJO pulse spawn a storm or two in the Atlantic when it passes through in the coming week or two?

I'd say Agatha is a minimal hurricane per models, and then Blas/Celia likely being of similar strength if not slightly stronger, since systems in these late June/early July MJO pulses tend to be of similar strength.

And yes, this pulse assume MJO doesn't weaken/retograde, will reach the ATL. If there isn't ridging over the GOM, I think a WCarrbiean storm is possible, and maybe I could see an MDR system. However, there are no hints of such in the GFS model nor the ECMWF's EPS ensemble system, which go out to 16 and 15 days respectively.

[cycloneye]

I can see future Agsatha between GFS and ECMWF scenarios in terms of intensity.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF no longer showing 2 systems like the 0z run and the UKMEt. Has the old first system merging with the 2nd one further east that the GFS is bullish with and the ECMWF has insisted on for days. Again, mostly discrepancies on how fast this gets going, with thanks to little interaction the GFS has it going much sooner than the ECMWF.

[cycloneye]

GEFS ensembles are as strong as the operational.

[Kingarabian]

12z ECMWF no longer showing 2 systems like the 0z run and the UKMEt. Has the old first system merging with the 2nd one further east that the GFS is bullish with and the ECMWF has insisted on for days. Again, mostly discrepancies on how fast this gets going, with thanks to little interaction the GFS has it going much sooner than the ECMWF.

It is showing 2 system's. Just doesn't show Agatha being a hurricane anymore.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF no longer showing 2 systems like the 0z run and the UKMEt. Has the old first system merging with the 2nd one further east that the GFS is bullish with and the ECMWF has insisted on for days. Again, mostly discrepancies on how fast this gets going, with thanks to little interaction the GFS has it going much sooner than the ECMWF.

It is showing 2 system's. Just doesn't show Agatha being a hurricane anymore.

This is the system that the ECMWF was showing organize but doesn't anymore. If you look at the 850mbar vort, it is separate from the GFS system that appears to be the 0/20 system. The system that ECMWF has forming around 7-8 days from now is the system the GFS is showing.