Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[Frank2]

We have to admit the GFS solution that became Zeta was correct all along - the model has performed very well in most cases. It's true it has been doing the same with the November system - it was very agressive for a half-dozens runs then dropped it, though the later it gets the more likely the next wave will not develop...

[SFLcane]

So no system yet, but we already have the ejectors, those ready to lead burial rites, and those who are certain beyond all reasonable doubt that it will miss Florida all lining up to put in their two cents worth. Hand me some popcorn.

What else is new.

[TheStormExpert]

At this point a system burying itself into Central America seems to be the best bet as both the GFS and Euro now show that.

[Laminar]

Easy to forget that while CA solutions may make for ‘boring tv’, for the FL crowd - they sure get our attention in this neck of the woods. Especially when the country has just opened for tourism. One of few in the world allowing US citizens entry...

[TheStormExpert]

So no system yet, but we already have the ejectors, those ready to lead burial rites, and those who are certain beyond all reasonable doubt that it will miss Florida all lining up to put in their two cents worth. Hand me some popcorn.

Nothing is coming towards Florida with the kind of ridging now being forecasted to be present after the next front early next week moves through.

[Loveweather12]

So no system yet, but we already have the ejectors, those ready to lead burial rites, and those who are certain beyond all reasonable doubt that it will miss Florida all lining up to put in their two cents worth. Hand me some popcorn.

Nothing is coming towards Florida with the kind of ridging now being forecasted to be present after the next front early next week moves through.

You work for the national hurricane center?
Zeta wasn’t supposed to go into LA. It was supposed to OTS & look where we are now.

[aspen]

06z GFS-Para develops this as soon as Halloween night in the central Caribbean, so by the time it makes landfall on the afternoon of November 3rd, it has bombed out into a 950s Cat 3/4.

If this goes slightly further north, it’ll miss Nicaragua and potentially get up to another full day over water.

[TheStormExpert]

So no system yet, but we already have the ejectors, those ready to lead burial rites, and those who are certain beyond all reasonable doubt that it will miss Florida all lining up to put in their two cents worth. Hand me some popcorn.

Nothing is coming towards Florida with the kind of ridging now being forecasted to be present after the next front early next week moves through.

You work for the national hurricane center?
Zeta wasn’t supposed to go into LA. It was supposed to OTS & look where we are now.

No, just look at the models.

Like I said several days ago the models will trend west, and they have.

[cp79]

FWIW... yesterday's 18z Para buries it into Central America but it appears that by hour 384 the remnants end up in the Bahamas. Nothing crazy like yesterday's 12z run of the Para. Today's 00z run of the Para is up to hour 150 right now with missing frames but it does show development to the east of Central America once again. We'll have to wait for the rest of the run to see where it goes from there.

Makes more sense. Yesterday’s run was a joke and completely unrealistic, especially with a pretty strong front expected to move through Florida Monday. They’re call for highs in the upper 60s to low 70s here in Tampa. That should either sweep out to sea or block any storm from hitting Fla. The CA solution makes sense, too. But I think the season-ending front that comes next week should keep the US safe.

Not according to the Euro and GFS.

They have this plowing into CA nowhere close to US.

[TheStormExpert]

Hopefully this means see y’all next season!

[CyclonicFury]

Even if this doesn't threaten Florida, it still could pose a significant threat to central America, Mexico, or the Greater Antilles if it is pulled far enough north. The latest GFS has a broad low develop by Day 5, so I would expect NHC to mention it soon. It's still too soon to sound the clear for Florida, though!

[gatorcane]

Hopefully this means see y’all next season!

That is what I am thinking. Alot of continental high pressure over the GOM and Florida next week according to the last few sets of model runs. That would keep anything that tries to form buried deep in the Caribbean possibly into Central America. Dewpoints in the 50s on the way for South Florida it appears early next week.

[Deshaunrob17]

GFS-Para is the only model I'm trusting with cyclogenesis. It's been on point in the short and medium-range this season. Sometimes in the long range it can be too friendly with cyclogenesis. It surely did a lot better than the original GfS and Euro with genesis.

[Loveweather12]

Hopefully this means see y’all next season!

This was said for Alpha Beta, Zeta & countless other storms and look where we are. To. Soon. To . Sound. All. Clear.

[ElectricStorm]

Lol the storm hasn't even formed yet and people are already saying end of season for Florida... We all know how much a track can change. Remember when Zeta was supposed to go out over the Bahamas? Yeah... Good times

[tomatkins]

At this point a system burying itself into Central America seems to be the best bet as both the GFS and Euro now show that.

GFS-P seems to want to pull the energy back NE after landfall. ut at least some of that is because GFS-P also ramps it up before landfall, whereas the GFS and Euro dont - so in those models, there is really no energy to pull back out - its all dissipated.

[CourierPR]

Lol the storm hasn't even formed yet and people are already saying end of season for Florida... We all know how much a track can change. Remember when Zeta was supposed to go out over the Bahamas? Yeah... Good times

It's like yesterday I couldn't spell meteorologist, but today I are one.

[underthwx]

Lol the storm hasn't even formed yet and people are already saying end of season for Florida... We all know how much a track can change. Remember when Zeta was supposed to go out over the Bahamas? Yeah... Good times

It's like yesterday I couldn't spell meteorologist, but today I are one.

Lol

[underthwx]

Nothing is coming towards Florida with the kind of ridging now being forecasted to be present after the next front early next week moves through.

You work for the national hurricane center?
Zeta wasn’t supposed to go into LA. It was supposed to OTS & look where we are now.

No, just look at the models.

Like I said several days ago the models will trend west, and they have.

I don't work at the NHC either......but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night..... ....I hope everyone is doing well today!

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS-Para, WHAT ARE YOU DOING???