2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[cycloneye]

The La Soufriere volcano eruptions in the past 3 weeks did nothing to cool the waters in western MDR or in eastern Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

This extratropical Low will sink southward and weaken the ridge (-NAO) causing the ssta's to rise in MDR and subtropical North Atlantic in the next week or two.

[cycloneye]

The MDR is still not warming as it is below average despite the -NAO but let's see in the comming days if it begins to warm.

[Category5Kaiju]

The MDR is still not warming as it is below average despite the -NAO but let's see in the comming days if it begins to warm.

https://i.imgur.com/4Ec5rjA.png

https://i.imgur.com/ghK3fxF.png

That is likely due to a SAL outbreak; the Atlantic Nino 3 region is expected to warm up significantly in the coming months, and it may very well be that that warmth migrates northward into the MDR by the summer. Also the WAM may very well boost the ssts as well

[aspen]

The MDR is still not warming as it is below average despite the -NAO but let's see in the comming days if it begins to warm.

https://i.imgur.com/4Ec5rjA.png

https://i.imgur.com/ghK3fxF.png

The long-term trend has been a gradual cooling of both the MDR and the Caribbean, which would act against the potential for an active season if it continues. This is quite different from what we saw last year at this time.

[Category5Kaiju]

The MDR is still not warming as it is below average despite the -NAO but let's see in the comming days if it begins to warm.

https://i.imgur.com/4Ec5rjA.png

https://i.imgur.com/ghK3fxF.png

The long-term trend has been a gradual cooling of both the MDR and the Caribbean, which would act against the potential for an active season if it continues. This is quite different from what we saw last year at this time.

Wait is the WAM then not forecast to come into play later this season? I'm curious why the MDR is cooling off like this, I'm inclined to say it's just a SAL outbreak but idk

[Shell Mound]

The MDR is still not warming as it is below average despite the -NAO but let's see in the comming days if it begins to warm.

https://i.imgur.com/4Ec5rjA.png

https://i.imgur.com/ghK3fxF.png

The long-term trend has been a gradual cooling of both the MDR and the Caribbean, which would act against the potential for an active season if it continues. This is quite different from what we saw last year at this time.

I do think that some people—maybe even some forecasters—tend to be overly bullish after a hyperactive season. We saw that in 2006. 2021 could be another case. We shouldn’t overlook all the factors that could lead to a significant bust. In addition to oceanic-atmospheric trends favouring warm neutral or + ENSO by ASO, the fact that the global tropics have been warmer than the MDR over the past month and a half should be noted. Given these factors, I’m a little surprised that some agencies have gone with very aggressive indices for their April outlooks. I’ve noted in the past that prior to hyperactive seasons agencies tended to ignore the telltale signs of hyperactivity, which were evident even months in advance prior to, say, the 2005 and 2017 seasons. Yet the same agencies sometimes tend to go with higher numbers than the early indicators suggested, as occurred in 2006 and 2013. This year clearly isn’t 2005, 2017, or even 2020, based on early signs to date. It also isn’t especially comparable to some above-average years, i.e., 1996, given that the equatorial Atlantic has been cooler than those years to date. All in all, I think the prudent thing to do is to go with a near-to-slightly-above-average season, at least at this stage.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1384641436948209666




So then what about this tweet from Klotzbach?

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1384641436948209666?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

So then what about this tweet from Klotzbach?

The MDR is probably taking a while to respond. It absolutely will warm to some degree eventually; it’s not going to continue cooling for months. However, by this point last year, both the MDR and Caribbean had been significantly warmer than average during the spring, even though I believe there were some cooling phases.

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1384641436948209666?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

So then what about this tweet from Klotzbach?

The MDR is probably taking a while to respond. It absolutely will warm to some degree eventually; it’s not going to continue cooling for months. However, by this point last year, both the MDR and Caribbean had been significantly warmer than average during the spring, even though I believe there were some cooling phases.

Maybe that the La Soufriere volcano eruptions may have slowed down the warming of the MDR . . .

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1384641436948209666?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

So then what about this tweet from Klotzbach?

The MDR is probably taking a while to respond. It absolutely will warm to some degree eventually; it’s not going to continue cooling for months. However, by this point last year, both the MDR and Caribbean had been significantly warmer than average during the spring, even though I believe there were some cooling phases.

Maybe that the La Soufriere volcano eruptions may have slowed down the warming of the MDR . . .

The La Soufriere volcano eruptions in the past 3 weeks did nothing to cool the waters in western MDR or in eastern Caribbean.

[Iceresistance]

The MDR is probably taking a while to respond. It absolutely will warm to some degree eventually; it’s not going to continue cooling for months. However, by this point last year, both the MDR and Caribbean had been significantly warmer than average during the spring, even though I believe there were some cooling phases.

Maybe that the La Soufriere volcano eruptions may have slowed down the warming of the MDR . . .

The La Soufriere volcano eruptions in the past 3 weeks did nothing to cool the waters in western MDR or in eastern Caribbean.

No, it did not, it's STILL above normal!

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1384641436948209666?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

So then what about this tweet from Klotzbach?

That still holds significance. I clarified this in an earlier post.

[JetFuel_SE]

The MDR is still not warming as it is below average despite the -NAO but let's see in the comming days if it begins to warm.

https://i.imgur.com/4Ec5rjA.png

https://i.imgur.com/ghK3fxF.png

Doesn't CDAS have a cold bias? (At least in the MDR)

[Category5Kaiju]

The MDR is still not warming as it is below average despite the -NAO but let's see in the comming days if it begins to warm.

https://i.imgur.com/4Ec5rjA.png

https://i.imgur.com/ghK3fxF.png

Doesn't CDAS have a cold bias? (At least in the MDR)

Yes, I do believe so. It is especially sensitive to SAL outbreaks causing temporary cooling of the MDR, and I explicitly remember this from a tweet last year from Alex Boreham, who's a pretty trustworthy and informative source of Atlantic hurricane season dynamics (he even has a website called cyclonicwx.com, which shows more accurate sst profiles imho). I do think that while it's nowhere near as warm as last year, the MDR will experience a net warm up (in a warm up cool down cycle) until the heart of the season. I think if recent years are any indication, it's to not just say that just because the MDR looks cool now means that will last until the season. We even saw this in 2018 where the basin was quite cool at this point in time but the WAM came in later and boosted the sst anomalies by ASO.

[Iceresistance]

The MDR in that Atlantic has warmed A LOT in the past 21 days . . .

[Category5Kaiju]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ql6WCO40Fg8

Mark Sudduth from hurricanetrack released his weekly discussion video, and he seems pretty firm to believe that this season looks to be an active one with weak Nino/warm neutral not as probable. He's also a veteran hurricane specialist, so he knows what he is talking about imho.

[SFLcane]

For those of us in SFL better hope this isn't correct with regards to the CFS. The mean position of the trough in August is basically the same as Irma in 2017. Lots of time still but an eye opener for sure.

[Category5Kaiju]

For those of us in SFL better hope this isn't correct with regards to the CFS. The mean position of the trough in August is basically the same as Irma in 2017. Lots of time still but an eye opener for sure.

https://i.imgur.com/BuB5LPk.png

https://i.imgur.com/FVqjCKB.png

Gosh darn, that really looks like a Florida/Bahamas-targeting signal there. If this verifies with favorable conditions persisting otherwise, then a major Strait of Florida storm or a potential strike on the southern tip of the state cannot be ruled out. Fingers crossed it doesn't happen of course, but that signal almost seems to look like 2021 wants to "make up" for the dearth of Florida strikes in 2020

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1387765574047092747



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1387765579554119681