Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[SoupBone]

I mean for the somewhat conservative Euro, it’s a decent signal but far from a great one. It’s definitely enough to keep your attention though.

True. What's strange is how the CMC, which is usually more aggressive hasn't done much of anything all season.

Maybe we should pay more attention to the CMC, it has the right idea, so far. We can bust out the NOGAPs too.

Well, the CMC does send it into Mexico, not unlike several of the ensembles. NOGAPS? Now that's name I haven't heard in a while.

[Frank P]

Latest Vis and IR sat images show a slight increase of convection associate with the system. Albeit not significant att, this is the most I've seen since tracking... with some hints of some CCW circulation in the loops, gonna be a slow process regardless of what ever this thing does... meanwhile I've grown web feet with all the copious amounts of rain on the MS coast the past 2-3 days.

[Cpv17]

Latest Vis and IR sat images show a slight increase of convection associate with the system. Albeit not significant att, this is the most I've seen since tracking... with some hints of some CCW circulation in the loops, gonna be a slow process regardless of what ever this thing does... meanwhile I've grown web feet with all the copious amounts of rain on the MS coast the past 2-3 days.
[url]https://ibb.pics/pwdTPF6/Screenshot-2022-08-24-15-22-56.png [/url]
[url]https://ibb.pics/JcbL0jQ/Screenshot-2022-08-24-15-24-36.png [/url]

The CPC is suggesting above average rainfall for the central and western Gulf coast over the next couple weeks. Wonder if they think this wave will make it there?

[Frank P]

Latest Vis and IR sat images show a slight increase of convection associate with the system. Albeit not significant att, this is the most I've seen since tracking... with some hints of some CCW circulation in the loops, gonna be a slow process regardless of what ever this thing does... meanwhile I've grown web feet with all the copious amounts of rain on the MS coast the past 2-3 days.
[url]https://ibb.pics/pwdTPF6/Screenshot-2022-08-24-15-22-56.png [/url]
[url]https://ibb.pics/JcbL0jQ/Screenshot-2022-08-24-15-24-36.png [/url]

The CPC is suggesting above average rainfall for the central and western Gulf coast over the next couple weeks. Wonder if they think this wave will make it there?

Interesting thought but certainly possible if the 12z GFS model comes to fruition, who and the heck knows. At least my AC bill has gone down the past month with all the rain and clouds and should go down again for this month as I've been only averaging a little over 4.00 buck a day for the past two weeks.... don't miss the heat like we had in June.

[Nimbus]

Latest Vis and IR sat images show a slight increase of convection associate with the system. Albeit not significant att, this is the most I've seen since tracking... with some hints of some CCW circulation in the loops, gonna be a slow process regardless of what ever this thing does... meanwhile I've grown web feet with all the copious amounts of rain on the MS coast the past 2-3 days.
[url]https://ibb.pics/pwdTPF6/Screenshot-2022-08-24-15-22-56.png [/url]
[url]https://ibb.pics/JcbL0jQ/Screenshot-2022-08-24-15-24-36.png [/url]

The CPC is suggesting above average rainfall for the central and western Gulf coast over the next couple weeks. Wonder if they think this wave will make it there?

Interesting thought but certainly possible if the 12z GFS model comes to fruition, who and the heck knows. At least my AC bill has gone down the past month with all the rain and clouds and should go down again for this month as I've been only averaging a little over 4.00 buck a day for the past two weeks.... don't miss the heat like we had in June.

12Z GFS shows a system like 99L with lowest pressures near 1000 mb but there are tropical storm force winds in the north and eastern quadrant at 850 mb. If the power lines go out for a week you end up paying for generator fuel to run the small window unit.

[Frank P]

The CPC is suggesting above average rainfall for the central and western Gulf coast over the next couple weeks. Wonder if they think this wave will make it there?

Interesting thought but certainly possible if the 12z GFS model comes to fruition, who and the heck knows. At least my AC bill has gone down the past month with all the rain and clouds and should go down again for this month as I've been only averaging a little over 4.00 buck a day for the past two weeks.... don't miss the heat like we had in June.

12Z GFS shows a system like 99L with lowest pressures near 1000 mb but there are tropical storm force winds in the north and eastern quadrant at 850 mb. If the power lines go out for a week you end up paying for generator fuel to run the small window unit.

Unlikely I’d lose power at all for 1000mb storm, I didn’t lose power for Ida but lost power for Zeta for about 3 days, which is the at my locale in Biloxi and the longest I’ve gone without power since the K storm.. but point taken… can’t predict where the trees will fall over the power lines… I have pretty much a whole house generator ready on standby just in case.

[SoupBone]

So the 18Z GFS at 9/5 doesn't show much. Is it heading into Mexico?

[Frank P]

So the 18Z GFS at 9/5 doesn't show much. It's it heading into Mexico?

Yep at 992 mb in the extreme SW BOC at H292 but at the same time shows another system traversing thru the Yucatán straits

[Frank P]

This is the new system that goes thru the Yucatán at h342… WTF GFS, are you ever going to be a decent model again?

[Frank P]

Inland on west coast of FL.. pffft

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

East of The Windward Islands:
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized associated
with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the
Windward Islands. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for slow development of this system in several days after
it crosses the Windward Islands and moves across the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea late this week into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Blown Away]

An AOI just E of Caribbean will take 15-16 days per GFS to pass over FL Big Bend area. Hmmm

[SoupBone]

An AOI just E of Caribbean will take 15-16 days per GFS to pass over FL Big Bend area. Hmmm

That's not this system though, right? That's some piece of it that develops too?

[wxman57]

An AOI just E of Caribbean will take 15-16 days per GFS to pass over FL Big Bend area. Hmmm

That's a different storm. The disturbance east of the Caribbean clips the northern Yucatan Sept. 3 and buries itself in the southern BoC. GFS develops another storm near western Cuba on the 6th that it drives into Florida. I'm sure it'll verify THIS time.

[SoupBone]

An AOI just E of Caribbean will take 15-16 days per GFS to pass over FL Big Bend area. Hmmm

That's a different storm. The disturbance east of the Caribbean clips the northern Yucatan Sept. 3 and buries itself in the southern BoC. GFS develops another storm near western Cuba on the 6th that it drives into Florida. I'm sure it'll verify THIS time.

I love your confidence in the GFS, golf clap to you kind sir.

[BobHarlem]

Signs of life again in the 0z icon for this system (in the W. Carib)

[BobHarlem]

6z GFS showing this now, begins to get organized near Jamaica. Side note GFS does nada with the wave that the 0z Euro develops.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Near the Windward Islands:
A well-defined tropical wave is moving across the Windward Islands
while producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
This system is expected to move westward at about 15 mph during the
next several days, and environmental conditions could become more
conducive for slow development when it moves across the central and
western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[weeniepatrol]

[Tailgater33]

https://imgur.com/qtHo78E

That looks a tad bit better organized than what I expected looking at the models